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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (11209)	8/24/2003 6:44:05 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95632

RE: "Just my humble opinion" You mentioned KLIC, but you haven't looked at all of Don's charts. The initial move off the bottom corrects the excessive negativism that drove stocks to the bottom. In the '98 to '00 up cycle, I had a stock go from $0.06 to over my selling price of $9.25 (CATS). That is more than a 150 bagger. The last cycle was a distorted bubble. Business results were distorted and even more so, stock prices. If you look at Don's charts, my stocks have long term growth rates that are among the leaders. You are correct, they are "such terrifically run companies" and that means that they will grow sales and earnings more than most. They have the track record and there is no reason to think things have changed. Of course AMAT might not outgrow KLIC, but AMAT at $60 will look a lot better than KLIC at $20.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (11209)	8/24/2003 7:03:17 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95632

In general, I agree with your assessments. Particularly the following: <n my humble opinion Cary is wrong about his favorite stocks. I don't believe that they will never be in the top ten list of performance from the bottom to the top of this or any other future cycle. What they have offered is less risk throughout the downturn because they are such terrifically run companies that they still garnered tremendous institutional support even in the darkest days of the past three years.> As you point out, the big, strong stocks like AMAT, KLAC and others do not "drop into the pits" like the smaller, weaker stocks. The 800 pound gorillas always hold up better in a down turn than they probably should, but when you buy them, one of the big reasons is for safety when the sector goes down in value. The weaker stocks drop further on a down turn and rise further in an up turn than the strongest in the sector. For the long term buy and holder, the big, strong stocks are great as well. The risk is far less here that they will go "south" compared to the weaker stocks. When you can pick a stock like PHTN, then you really are in "fat city". As one of the previous tables showed, PHTN went from 2.25 to 16.15 during the 4 year period from 10/8/98 to 10/9/02 for a gain of 618 percent. In far away second place was NVLS with a 176 percent gain. KLAC was in 5th place with a 139 percent gain, while AMAT was in 7th place with an 86 percent gain. This performance is just symptomatic of the "casino" we are involved in on a daily basis. I have posted the table previously showing the gains for the stocks in the Group going from 10/8/98 to their peak price in 2000. The 2 big winners in the Group were PHTN and LTXX. PHTN went from 2.25 to 90.38 for a 3917 percent gain while LTXX went from 1.31 to 50.25 for a 3736 percent gain. TER, AMAT, NVLS and KLAC had gains of 1307, 928, 858, and 791 percent respectively, and were in 7th, 10th, 12th, and 15th place respectively out of a total of 25 in the Group. Don