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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (11227)	8/25/2003 2:14:01 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95622

While 20% is not out of the question I think it is highly unlikely. Unless we get an external shock which would cause a quick return of the doom and gloomers I find it hard to imagine a long, protracted sell off in the SOX. Since the semi sector's guidance has been creeping forward, I think the buy the dipsters will be out in force on any significant pull back, say 10% or greater and probably after a downward move of 8% or so--assuming we don't get a rash of negative news. Here's another article trying to speculate on the future: Odds increase for an IC recovery, says IC Insights By Mark LaPedus Silicon Strategies 08/25/2003, 11:50 AM ET SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- The semiconductor industry has rolled the dice and the odds for an IC recovery have slightly changed for the better in 2003, according to the latest forecast from IC Insights Inc. IC Insights believes there is a 65 percent chance that the IC market will grow 10 percent to 15 percent in 2003 over 2002. There is a 30 percent chance that the growth rates will go below 10 percent in 2003, and a 5 percent chance that the IC market will go above 15 percent. At present, IC Insights projects that the worldwide IC market will hit $160 billion in 2003, up 14 percent from 2002. The chip market is expected to grow 23 percent to $196 million in 2004 over 2003, according to the Scottsdale-based market research firm. In any case, the market research firm has slightly altered its previous forecasts. In the previous predication, disclosed last May, the firm believed there was a 55 percent chance that the IC market would grow by 15 percent in 2003 over 2002. In that older forecast, there was a 35 percent chance that the IC market would follow IC Insights' pessimistic forecast for 2003, which called for 8 percent growth in 2003. The odds were smaller for IC Insights' most optimistic forecast, which believed there was a 10 percent chance that the IC market will grow 20 percent in 2003 ( see May 27 story ). In its new forecast, there are three possible scenarios. In the most likely scenario, there is a 65 percent chance that the IC market will grow 10 percent to 15 percent in 2003 over 2002. IC Insights bases this particular forecast on several assumptions. From a macroeconomic standpoint, worldwide gross domestic product (GDP) must range from 2.6 percent to 2.9 percent in 2003. At the same time, SARS must be under control by the Q3 of 2003, according to IC Insights. This forecast also assumes that a "strong" PC upgrade cycle begins in Q4 of 2003. Fab-capacity buys should start in the fourth quarter of this year as well, with fab-utilization rates hitting 90 percent or above starting in Q4, according to IC Insights. Pessimistic IC scenario In the new forecast, there is a 30 percent chance that the IC market will follow IC Insights' pessimistic outlook for 2003, which calls for the growth rates to be below 10 percent in 2003 over 2002. In this scenario, worldwide GDP is equal or less than 2.5 percent. The impact of SARS would return in the fourth quarter of 2003, and the PC upgrade cycle and fab-capacity buys would not occur until 2004. Fab-utilization rates would range below 90 percent in 2003, according to the report. Optimistic IC scenario The odds are smaller for IC Insights' most optimistic forecast, which believes there is a 5 percent chance that the IC market will grow more than 15 percent in 2003. In this scenario, worldwide GDP is greater than 3 percent, with no impact from SARS. Both the PC upgrade cycle and fab-capacity buys would start in Q3 of 2003 and that fab-utilization goes above 90 percent starting in Q3 of 2003, according to the report.