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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (11229)	8/25/2003 3:02:03 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95622

20% drop in SOX highly unlikely The SOX has had five different 30% declines just since 2000. A sixth is not only likely but inevitable.

To: The Ox who wrote (11229)	8/25/2003 3:31:06 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Respond to of 95622

Michael, This sounds pretty good on the surface, but I got lost trying to figure out probabilities piled on top of "growth" numbers. I gave up about midway through the article. My head was in a "spin" after the following: <In any case, the market research firm has slightly altered its previous forecasts. In the previous predication, disclosed last May, the firm believed there was a 55 percent chance that the IC market would grow by 15 percent in 2003 over 2002. In that older forecast, there was a 35 percent chance that the IC market would follow IC Insights' pessimistic forecast for 2003, which called for 8 percent growth in 2003. The odds were smaller for IC Insights' most optimistic forecast, which believed there was a 10 percent chance that the IC market will grow 20 percent in 2003 ( see May 27 story ).> Before I got too dizzy, I had to call it quits.<g> Don

To: The Ox who wrote (11229)	8/25/2003 4:14:27 PM
From: Return to Sender	Respond to of 95622

I think 20% from this high is unlikely too but even if the SOX fell that much from Friday's high it would still have a strong double bottom at 366 from which to work higher. stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[pb20!b50!b200!c13!c20!c50!d20,2!f][vc60]&pref=G More than likely we will not see that kind of severe sell off this September, or October, because as we witnessed again today the volume declines on the down days. No one should be expecting the market to sell off very deeply unless we see a lot more volume creeping in as the selling accelerates. Instead we have seen a light volume rally followed by even lighter episodes of selling, or consolidation, since March. As it stands I can see a trendline at about 380 and rising, that's right I said rising, for the SOX that should hold even if the selling does accelerate somewhat in September. We will get another 20% drop or more in the SOX. We may even get it this time around because the index is very volatile and it has outperformed all of the major indices but in the absence of an exogenous shock, which certainly is not out of the question, I agree a 10% drop may be all it takes to really get the dipsters back enforcing the SOX. What does concern me however is the number of upgrades from analysts in conjunction with insider selling ratios and historical valuations of the market as a whole. This is typical of market top action. Technically for the SOX espeically we have a very positive situation supported by institutional buying despite today's high put to call ratio. That suggests continued strength. RtS