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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11228)	8/25/2003 2:25:00 PM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95617

I think Fleck lives in fantasy world where there's a crisis looming around every corner and there's an ambush set up at every mountain pass. I know VERY few people who are "all in" the market. Very few are 100% invested on the bull side. I know we have a few around here who are 100% in but I bet they are a tiny minority. Quite a few people I know have either reduced or eliminated their 401K contributions. I think the market could see a nice correction and RtS's 20% off on the SOX could happen but I just find it hard to envision a "crash" scenario given the "total picture" as seen/displayed by many different US and global economic statistics. Should we see some back fill? In my opinion, absolutely. A crash...well...I just don't see it. I see Fleck becoming more and more like Chicken Little, constantly crying that the sky is gonna fall. mh

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11228)	8/25/2003 3:19:00 PM
From: Kirk ©	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95617

Hmmmm.... I think that speaks volumes about the saturated, weak state of the PC industry, notwithstanding folks' excitement about a turnaround for the umpteenth time. Price-cutting and fanfare over Centrino, Intel's (INTC, news, msgs) new processor with built-in wireless networking circuitry, has moved a few more units since last May. But with its effectiveness now a thing of the past, Hewlett appears to be backing off this strategy, though Dell Inc. (DELL, news, msgs) last Wednesday turned up the heat when it announced a new round of price cuts for Centrino products What is intereting and Flec misses is HP did not promote the Centrino, Dell did. This is getting Dell better prices for components (my opinoin) and Dell is getting promoted by Intel to Intel employees via a special offer to get $1,000 off a Dell PC to use at home. I think HP+Compaq tried to squeeze too much blood out of a stone and the stone hit back.... just a guess. Also, I read that HP had a problem managing inventory and had to air freight LCD monitors which is expensive. Carly said in her CC that Dell and HP would go back n forth as leaders and much of this profit will come from prices they get from vendors. It still seems like "everyone" is expecting a weak fall season except for me as I've been saying it "feels like 1999 all over again" where the S&P might have dipped but the Nasdaq kept right on trucking. I actually don't "call the markets" but it sure seems most "experts" are expecting it to go lower... stockcharts.com[h,a]dhclyymy[d19990101,20031231][pc20,50!d20,2!f][pc20!c50!i!d20,2!b100!b200!f][vc60][iut!Uo14!La12,26,9!Lh14,3!Lc20] Did you see the put/call ratio on Friday? stockcharts.com