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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (11236)	8/27/2003 6:54:12 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95617

I have not posted the following table before. It addresses analyst consensus 12 month target prices in different time frames. I will try to summarize the major points, but there is a lot to "chew on" here for those interested. The table starts with the week ending 8/3/02. It was approximately at this time that the "market" and the "analysts" realized that a good 2nd half 2002 was not to be. Until this point, 12 month target prices had been set to a "high" level. Over the next 3 months, until the middle of Nov, the consensus estimates were lowered in "big chunks". The majority of target prices were lowered during these 3 months, but at the bottom line for the Group, the estimate did not hit the absolute bottom until the week ending 6/28/03 - there it bottomed at a sum of 414. Compared to the bottom line price of 691 on 8/3/02, this was a 40 percent decrease. The first 2 columns then give the detail on the Group change in 12 month target prices for this period. The 3rd column shows the percent change for each stock during that period as well as the bottom line change. The table is sorted by percent change. Note that only WFR had an increased estimate, all other 24 stocks were down. 13 of the 25 stocks had their target prices cut by 50 percent or more. I am going to post 3 tables in this post. The first table here will show the sorting by column 3. --------------------------------------------------------------------- - 8/3/02 6/28/03 8/23/03 - 12 Mon 12 Mon 12 Mon Total - Price Price Percent Price Percent Percent SYMBOL Target Target Change Target Change Change WFR 7 15 107 15 0 107 NVLS 39 37 -5 38 3 -3 VECO 20 18 -13 21 20 5 COHU 32 27 -17 27 0 -17 KLAC 55 44 -20 51 15 -8 SMTL 10 8 -20 10 25 0 LRCX 22 17 -23 25 47 14 CYMI 45 34 -24 39 15 -13 UTEK 23 17 -27 30 79 30 DPMI 34 24 -29 22 -8 -35 ATMI 33 22 -33 26 18 -21 AMAT 30 19 -37 21 12 -29 PHTN 50 28 -44 31 9 -39 TER 30 15 -50 20 33 -33 HELX 34 16 -53 18 13 -47 BRKS 27 13 -54 22 76 -19 PLAB 35 16 -56 19 23 -46 FSII 11 5 -59 5 0 -59 LTXX 23 9 -63 9 0 -63 ASML 25 9 -66 9 0 -66 MTSN 9 3 -67 3 0 -67 ASYT 25 7 -72 12 71 -52 CMOS 35 10 -73 10 0 -73 KLIC 21 5 -76 8 60 -62 EGLS 16 1 -94 1 0 -94 TOTAL 691 414 -40 488 18 -29 Since 6/28/03, the concensus target prices have been increasing for some stocks and the bottom line has been increasing. The latest number for the Group, as of this past week ending 8/23/03, is 488 - that is an 18 percent increase in approx the last 2 months. The table below is sorted by the 5th column showing the percent change in 12 month price targets during the past 2 months. Note that some of the upward revisions are quite large. 8/3/02 6/28/03 8/23/03 12 Mon 12 Mon 12 Mon Total Price Price Percent Price Percent Percent SYMBOL Target Target Change Target Change Change UTEK 23 17 -27 30 79 30 BRKS 27 13 -54 22 76 -19 ASYT 25 7 -72 12 71 -52 KLIC 21 5 -76 8 60 -62 LRCX 22 17 -23 25 47 14 TER 30 15 -50 20 33 -33 SMTL 10 8 -20 10 25 0 PLAB 35 16 -56 19 23 -46 VECO 20 18 -13 21 20 5 ATMI 33 22 -33 26 18 -21 KLAC 55 44 -20 51 15 -8 CYMI 45 34 -24 39 15 -13 HELX 34 16 -53 18 13 -47 AMAT 30 19 -37 21 12 -29 PHTN 50 28 -44 31 9 -39 NVLS 39 37 -5 38 3 -3 COHU 32 27 -17 27 0 -17 FSII 11 5 -59 5 0 -59 LTXX 23 9 -63 9 0 -63 ASML 25 9 -66 9 0 -66 MTSN 9 3 -67 3 0 -67 CMOS 35 10 -73 10 0 -73 WFR 7 15 107 15 0 107 EGLS 16 1 -94 1 0 -94 DPMI 34 24 -29 22 -8 -35 TOTAL 691 414 -40 488 18 -29 And finally the table can be sorted by the last column. This shows the target price at the moment compared to the target price on 8/3/02, almost 13 months ago. Note that at the bottom line, the present target price of the Group is 29 percent lower than the 691 in the first column. 8/3/02 6/28/03 8/23/03 12 Mon 12 Mon 12 Mon Total Price Price Percent Price Percent Percent SYMBOL Target Target Change Target Change Change WFR 7 15 107 15 0 107 UTEK 23 17 -27 30 79 30 LRCX 22 17 -23 25 47 14 VECO 20 18 -13 21 20 5 SMTL 10 8 -20 10 25 0 NVLS 39 37 -5 38 3 -3 KLAC 55 44 -20 51 15 -8 CYMI 45 34 -24 39 15 -13 COHU 32 27 -17 27 0 -17 BRKS 27 13 -54 22 76 -19 ATMI 33 22 -33 26 18 -21 AMAT 30 19 -37 21 12 -29 TER 30 15 -50 20 33 -33 DPMI 34 24 -29 22 -8 -35 PHTN 50 28 -44 31 9 -39 PLAB 35 16 -56 19 23 -46 HELX 34 16 -53 18 13 -47 ASYT 25 7 -72 12 71 -52 FSII 11 5 -59 5 0 -59 KLIC 21 5 -76 8 60 -62 LTXX 23 9 -63 9 0 -63 ASML 25 9 -66 9 0 -66 MTSN 9 3 -67 3 0 -67 CMOS 35 10 -73 10 0 -73 EGLS 16 1 -94 1 0 -94 TOTAL 691 414 -40 488 18 -29