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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gold$10k who wrote (18543)	8/28/2003 6:03:15 PM
From: jimsioi	Respond to of 39344

valutrader, give me "steady" Seems to me there is going to be some doubt thrown in here before any further move higher....like a retest of the $366 area at a minimum. Frankly, if this well advertised and discussed breakout really had the stuff, "pullback" wouldn't really be necessary....Longs are skittish and aren't getting over extended I guess....that's good. No panic among the Commercial shorts that I detect. What will a N.Korean weapons test do for things???? Where are they going to test such a thing....??? Will admit that my timidity has been excessive....."Too the Moon Alice." $400 next month....$500 this year....$1000 next year...Listen only to Murphy and Sinclair, turn off the TV, burn the paper, read only the most bullish posts. Gotta get bullishly pumped up.... When I do it'll be right at the top.....suspect that's what many have learned..

To: gold$10k who wrote (18543)	8/28/2003 8:49:26 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

VT, Yes, it's momentum driven, but even more importantly it's "dollar based" liquidity (DBL) driven. bcaresearch.com My theory now (and I may be sort of repeating myself here) is that there is going to be a liquidity mop up. morganstanley.com The easy money is just running too high, and there's too much systemic risk to sustain money printing at this "overdose" level. The markets are already backing up: bonds, forward Eurodollar rates (eased today, but we'll see), some flattening of the yield curve, are sending signals to possibly enforce some discipline. IMO once DBL, or MZM, or whatever money supply you care to use, comes off of these nose bleed areas, all the markets will break including gold. It could even be a minor "error" (or nothing at all) by the authorities that could cause it, that's how shaky the patient is. Message 19253957 I suppose in the very short run as long as you see this kind aggressive daily pumping of the repo market, bullandbearwise.com we could see a little more upside action in the markets. But, it's dangerous here, and your finger needs to be on the trigger almost daily. Therefore, I've simplified my approach to the PM sector. First is valuation, and as you've suggested we are no longer in the accumulation cheap stock stage. And these companies really aren't adding value that quickly. Sure, some are sharper than others at positioning, getting Amex listings, doing a good job of funds placements, but there isn't enough value being created yet to justify higher prices from here in general. And I haven't seen the major catalysts (series of high premium buyouts) that could get more speculative juices going or put extra dollars (and recycle) in the hands of the sector's investors and speculators. Mostly the markets have just caught up with the value created (and ignored) in the last cycle. And finally there has been a huge underwriting cycle, and we all remember what even a small one looked like last year after the four month holds, duh! Secondly sentiment has turned more bearish for the PM sector, although there still seems to be some "climbing a wall of worry" out there. But there's that massive commercial short position, it's just too big for me to ignore. That's why I don't see the PM stocks getting to a bubble stage. Everybody talks about dot.coms, but that kind of mania is very rare. Is all this tradable now? I don't see how, as it's mostly short term noise (the small picture), with a major hammer (the big picture) in wait to crush the players.