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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Rascal who wrote (113498)8/30/2003 8:50:34 PM
From: Rascal  Respond to of 281500
 
"Trompe l'oeil coalition"

You have got to hand it to Maureen. She can turn a phrase!

August 31, 2003
OP-ED COLUMNIST
Who's Losing Iraq?
By MAUREEN DOWD


ASHINGTON

Karl Rove has got to be nervous.

The man who last year advised Republican candidates to "focus on war" is finding out that the Bush doctrine of pre-emption cannot pre-empt anarchy.

Now, General Rove will have to watch Democratic candidates focus on war.

We're getting into very volatile territory in the Middle East.

As Paul Bremer admitted last week, the cost of the Iraq adventure is going to be spectacular: $2 billion for electrical demands and $16 billion to deliver clean water.

We're losing one or two American soldiers every day. Saddam and Osama are still lurking and scheming — the "darkness which may be felt."

After a car bomb exploded outside a Najaf mosque on Friday, killing scores of people, including the most prominent pro-American Shiite cleric, we may have to interject our troops into an internecine Shiite dispute — which Saddam's Baathist guerrillas are no doubt stoking.

With Iraqis in Najaf screaming, "There is no order! There is no government! We'd rather have Saddam than this!," we had one more ominous illustration that the Bush team is out of its depth and divided against itself.

You can't conduct a great historical experiment in a petty and bickering frame of mind. The agencies of the Bush administration are behaving like high school cliques. The policy in Iraq is paralyzed almost to the point of nonexistence, stalled by spats between the internationalists and unilateralists, with the national security director, Condoleezza Rice, abnegating her job as policy referee.

The State Department will have to stop sulking and being in denial about the Pentagon running the show in Iraq. And the Pentagon will have to stop being dogmatic, clinging to the quixotic notion that it only wants to succeed with its streamlined force and its trompe l'oeil coalition. Rummy has to accept the magnitude of the task and give up running the Department of Defense the way a misanthropic accountant would.

Big deeds need big spirits. You can't have a Marshall Plan and a tax cut at the same time.

It has also now become radiantly clear that we have to drag Dick Cheney out of the dark and smog. Less Hobbes, more Locke.

So far, American foreign policy has been guided by the vice president's gloomy theories that fear and force are the best motivators in the world, that war is man's natural state and that the last great superpower has sovereign authority to do as it pleases without much consultation with subjects or other nations.

We can now see the disturbing results of all the decisions Mr. Cheney made in secret meetings.

The General Accounting Office issued a report last week noting that the vice president shaped our energy policy with clandestine advice from "petroleum, coal, nuclear, natural gas, electricity industry representatives and lobbyists."

Favoritism to energy pals led to last week's insane decision to gut part of the Clean Air Act and allow power plants, refineries and other industrial sites to belch pollutants.

Another Bush-Cheney energy crony is Anthony Alexander of Ohio's FirstEnergy Corporation, which helped trigger the blackout after failing to upgrade its transmission system properly since deregulation. He was a Bush Pioneer, having raised at least $100,000 for the campaign.

This logrolling attitude has led to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers allowing Halliburton — which made Mr. Cheney a rich man with $20 million worth of cashed-in stock — to get no-bid contracts in Iraq totaling $1.7 billion, and that's just a start.

All this, and high gas prices, too?

When he wasn't meeting secretly with energy lobbyists, Mr. Cheney was meeting secretly with Iraqi exiles. The Iraqi National Congress leader Ahmad Chalabi and other defectors conned Mr. Cheney, Rummy and the naïve Wolfowitz of Arabia by playing up the danger of Saddam's W.M.D.'s and playing down the prospect of Iraqi resistance to a U.S. invasion.

According to The Los Angeles Times, U.S. and allied intelligence agencies are investigating to see if they were duped by Iraqi defectors giving bogus information to mislead the West before the war.

Some intelligence officials "now fear that key portions of the prewar information may have been flawed," the story said. "The issue raises fresh doubts as to whether illicit weapons will be found in Iraq."

Karl Rove has got to be nervous.

nytimes.com

Rascal @TheDefectorsDupedUsandtheDogAteMyWMDs.com



To: Rascal who wrote (113498)8/30/2003 10:56:14 PM
From: Brumar89  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
Actually we do know who was behind the UN and Najaf mosque bombings. The front line in the war on Al Qaida is in Iraq.

No one can say with any certainty who was behind the bombings at the U.N. headquarters in Baghdad and the Shiite holy place in Najaf,...

19 Arrested in Bombing of Mosque in Iraq

By TAREK AL-ISSAWI, Associated Press Writer

NAJAF, Iraq - Police have arrested 19 men — many of them foreigners and all with admitted links to al-Qaida — in the car bombing of the Imam Ali shrine in the holy Shiite city of Najaf, a senior Iraqi investigator told The Associated Press on Saturday.
 
Two Iraqis and two Saudis grabbed shortly after the Friday attack gave information leading to the arrest of the others, said the official, speaking on condition of anonymity. They include two Kuwaitis and six Palestinians with Jordanian passports with the remainder Iraqis and Saudis, the official said, without giving a breakdown.

Initial information shows the foreigners entered Iraq from Kuwait, Syria and Jordan, the official said, adding that they belong to the Wahhabi sect of Sunni Islam.

"They are all connected to al-Qaida," the official said.


Wahhabism is the strict, fundamentalist branch of Sunni Islam from which al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden draws spiritual direction. Based in Saudi Arabia, its followers show little tolerance for non-Wahhabi Sunnis and Shiites.

Police pointed to similarities between the mosque bombing and two recent attacks.

The bomb at the Imam Ali shrine — the burial place of the son-in-law of the Prophet Muhammad — was made from the same type of materials used in the Aug. 19 truck bombing at the U.N. headquarters in Baghdad, which killed 23 people, and the Jordanian Embassy vehicle bombing Aug. 7, which killed 19, the Iraqi official said.

U.S. officials have not confirmed any details of the arrests, which would substantiate Bush administration claims that bin Laden's followers have taken their Islamic militant war against the West to Iraq, where U.S. forces are struggling to maintain security.

American authorities have not taken an active public role in the mosque investigation because of Iraqi sensitivity to any U.S. presence at the Najaf shrine, the most-sacred Shiite shrine in Iraq and the third holiest in the world after Mecca and Medina.

Hospital officials said 85 people died in the shrine bombing, including leading Shiite Muslim cleric Ayatollah Mohammed Baqir al-Hakim. Earlier tolls were reduced after some deaths were found to have been reported twice.

Thousands of angry mourners gathered outside the damaged Imam Ali shrine Saturday, calling for vengeance in the killing of al-Hakim, a cherished Shiite leader and Saddam Hussein \ opponent who only in May had returned from exile in Iran.

While backing the formation of an Islamic state in Iraq, al-Hakim had also urged unity among hostile Shiite factions and tolerance of the American-led coalition.

"Our leader al-Hakim is gone. We want the blood of the killers of al-Hakim," a crowd of 4,000 men chanted, beating their chests.

Tens of thousands of worshippers filled the shrine and the surrounding streets of Najaf, 110 miles southwest of Baghdad, for a funeral service for victims. Residents carried coffins on the tops of cars and backs of trucks.

There was to be a service for al-Hakim in Baghdad early Sunday; his remains were to be buried Tuesday in Najaf, his birthplace and seat of the powerful al-Hakim family. Authorities said they have only found al-Hakim's hand, watch, wedding band and a pen.

In response to the bombing, a highly respected Shiite cleric suspended his membership in the U.S.-chosen Iraqi interim Governing Council, citing a lack of security.

Mohammed Bahr al-Uloum, in exile in London until Saddam's ouster, said Saturday that his return to the council depended on the U.S.-led coalition's handing security matters to Iraqis, so that Muslim shrines could be under Islamic protection.
 
"This act has pushed me to postpone my membership in the governing council because it can't do anything concerning the security situation," he said.

The men arrested claimed the recent bombings were designed to "keep Iraq in a state of chaos so that police and American forces are unable to focus" on the country's porous borders, which foreign fighters are said to be crossing, the Iraqi official said.

The Najaf police official, who led the initial investigation and interrogation of the captives, said the prisoners described plots to assassinate political and religious leaders and to damage vital installations such as power plants, water supplies and oil pipelines.


In the latest sabotage, an explosion and fire Saturday struck the pipeline carrying oil from Iraq's northern Kirkuk fields to Turkey. The blaze further delayed resumption of the vital link which costs Iraqis an estimated $7 million each day it is out of operation. The blast was the fourth to hit the line since it briefly reopened earlier this month.

In the shrine attack, 1,550 pounds of explosives were planted in two cars for the Imam Ali mosque attack, the Dubai-based Al-Arabiya satellite broadcaster reported, quoting the Najaf governor. The U.N. bomb was about 1,000 pounds.

The FBI said the U.N. bomb was built from ordnance left over from Saddam's regime, most of it made in the Soviet Union. Many explosives were wired together, including a 500-pound Soviet-era bomb, the agency said.

The shrine investigation was being handled entirely by Iraqi police in Najaf, but the FBI would assist if asked, coalition spokesman Charles Heatley told reporters. "It's clearly in our interests that those responsible be brought to justice," he said.

He said the coalition had sent $200,000 to Iraqi authorities in Najaf as a disaster relief fund and had earmarked $2 million for reconstruction in the city.

The coalition rejects claims it is not providing adequate security in Iraq, Heatley said.
The fundamentalist Wahhabists have a history of antagonism against Shiites and their ornate centers of worship — such as the Imam Ali shrine, with its gold dome and lavish blue mosaics.

Based on the strict teachings of 18th-century Saudi cleric Muhammad bin Abdel-Wahhab, Wahhabism was banned by Saddam. Now, scholars of Islam say the Wahhabis may be trying to cast themselves as protectors of the Sunnis, the minority that had ruled over the majority Shiites in Iraq.

The string of attacks appear aimed at those who cooperate with the United States.

The Jordanians have among the best ties with Washington of all Arab governments and have shown sympathy for the U.S.-picked interim Iraqi Governing Council. The United Nations was seen as a key to postwar reconstruction; its bombing caused many aid organizations to remove staff or whittle operations in a blow to improving daily life.

Shiites leaders, while openly resentful of the American occupation, had recommended patience — if not cooperation with the coalition. The Shiites stood to benefit greatly under U.S. plans for rebuilding after decades of oppression under Saddam.

The Najaf bombing set off a wave of criticism among Shiites for the U.S. inability to provide security nearly four months after President Bush declared major fighting.

U.S. officials believe militants from Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iran are entering Iraq to attack Western interests. Bush said earlier this month that more foreign "al-Qaida-type fighters" have moved in.

story.news.yahoo.com



To: Rascal who wrote (113498)8/31/2003 12:46:54 AM
From: Sam  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 281500
 
Worthwhile commentary on Friedman's article from I-Hub:

<<Friedman and anybody else who thinks that reconstituting the Iraqi army is going to help us out of the jam we are in in Iraq is hallucinating. Most of the now disbanded army just want to start getting paychecks again so they can keep themselves in smokes and something to eat.

And the problem with hiring former army to be army again brings up the flaw that was central to Bushco policy going in--nobody in Iraq wants us there. To Iraqis we are infidels, invaders, and ripoff artists. We're there to steal their oil. So why are former army members going to be helpful to us? Half of them--the smart half--are still loyal to Saddam. That is the side their bread has been buttered on for thirty years and old habits die real hard when you're living off the dole. At best a new Iraqi army is going to be just as big of a political unknown as everyone else in Iraq. The big difference is we're going to be handing each and every one of these guys a shiny new AK-47--probably at a big profit to our "buddies" at Halliburton and Carlyle Group--and a few clips full of rounds, while so far we've been trying to disarm everybody else.

So what's to stop the thousands of Islamic warriors under Sadr from joining the new army? What's going to keep out the Baathists and even the Al Qaeda? Friedman suggests we let some Iraqi colonel sort them out. Oh yea, that's gonna work. Anybody who made colonel under Saddam is going to be loyal to Saddam. And by the way--has anybody seen Saddam lately? Give him his army back, he's likely to be ten times as dangerous as he is right now.>>



To: Rascal who wrote (113498)9/1/2003 6:45:20 PM
From: Bilow  Respond to of 281500
 
Hi Rascal; Re Friedman's comment: "If you think we don't have enough troops in Iraq now — which we don't — wait and see if the factions there start going at each other. America would have to bring back the draft to deploy enough troops to separate the parties. In short, we are at a dangerous moment in Iraq. We cannot let sectarian violence explode. We cannot go on trying to do this on the cheap. And we cannot succeed without more Iraqi and allied input. But the White House and Pentagon have been proceeding as if it's business as usual."

So Thomas L. Friedman, the great war theorist, is talking about the prospect of having to bring back the draft. That whole concept was why I was convinced that we weren't going to go into Iraq. Here are some quotes:

Buchanan, September 16, 2002
We are running out of army. And while Americans have shown they will back wars fought with no conscripts and few casualties, the day is not far off when they will be asked to draft their sons to fight for empire, and many of those sons will not be coming home. That day, Americans will tell us whether they really wish to pay the blood tax that is the price of policing the War Party's empire. #reply-17998241

Bilow, October 4, 2002
Despite the differences, all of which suggest that the siege of Beirut is easy compared to the siege of Baghdad, the Israelis attacked with 70,000 men. This is why any realistic US attack would require at least 250,000 -- and a draft to get to a million if it turns into an occupation vs guerilla conflict. #reply-18075081

Bilow, March 23, 2002
Well now we're in Iraq and the civilians are shooting at us. The force ratio that the British required in Northern Ireland was 20 per 1000. But the British had the advantages of (1) being the same color as the locals, (2) having the same religion as the majority of the locals, and (3) being wildly supported by the majority of the people. These advantages gave them advantages in intelligence that we can't possibly achieve in Iraq. And even that required 20 British troops per 1000 population. Iraq is 24,000,000 people. You do the math. I and certain that the US population will not stand for this. #reply-18743301

Bilow, March 24, 2002
(2) The US doesn't have enough troops to garrison a hostile Iraq, so it is imperative that we stay on good relations with the locals. Otherwise, we'd have to reinstate the draft. #reply-18743674

Bilow, July 6, 2003
The problem is that without the draft, we simply do not have enough soldiers to keep the place under control. So the ones that are there are in an impossible position. #reply-19087376

Bilow, July 11, 2003
Now we're stuck in an unwinnable guerilla war against a population that hates us deeply. And our administration has painted itself into a corner with its early claims that they went into Iraq with a large enough force. Over the next six months the neocons will begin talking about how to get enough troops to keep Iraq pacified. Since the only way they can do this is to bring back the draft, the American public will deep six them in 2004. #reply-19101062

Bilow, August 20, 2003
Our military is stretched too thin to substantially augment the troops in Iraq. We are slowly being forced to fish or cut bait. I doubt that the administration will fish, as that would require a military draft, which would motivate millions of college age kids to vote Democratic, LOL. #reply-19227599

-- Carl



To: Rascal who wrote (113498)9/1/2003 8:56:00 PM
From: Win Smith  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 281500
 
I liked this bit:

Our Iraq strategy needs an emergency policy lobotomy. President Bush needs to shift to a more U.N.-friendly approach, with more emphasis on the Iraqi Army (the only force that can effectively protect religious sites in Iraq and separate the parties), and with more input from Secretary of State Colin Powell and less from the "we know everything and everyone else is stupid" civilian team running the Pentagon.

The "everything and everyone else is stupid" line has a familiar ring to it, wrt the local environment and the administration flack auxiliary. The "lobotomy" metaphor seems a little mixed up to me, though, my personal understanding is that US foreign policy on Iraq got lobotomized when Rumsfeld and the PNAC people decided 9/11 was the perfect opportunity to implement their half-baked plans. Unbaking or baking the fruition of those plans is going to be an ongoing problem for a while. I will repeat my modest proposal that they oughta put Wolfowitz or somebody equivalent from the PNAC brain trust officially in charge of Iraq, so they can't fob off responsibility on somebody else.

Somewhat in contrast to both my modest proposal and the locally current "generational commitment", we got the Prince of Darkness aka he-who-must-not-be-named himself from a couple days ago:

Richard Perle, a leading Pentagon adviser and architect of the U.S. war to topple Saddam Hussein, said the United States had made mistakes in Iraq and that power should be handed over to the Iraqis as fast as possible. . . .

"Our principal mistake, in my opinion, was that we didn't manage to work closely with the Iraqis before the war, so that there was an Iraqi opposition capable of taking charge immediately," he said.

"Today, the answer is to hand over power to the Iraqis as soon as possible," he added.
abcnews.go.com

Um. Some might say our principal mistake was when W handed foreign policy over to Rumsfeld and the PNAC hotheads, but that goes back to the lobotomy issue. Anyway, Perle doesn't seem too anxious to take responsibility, I guess he's not a likely candidate for Bremer's job.