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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (18845)	8/31/2003 10:26:31 AM
From: Little Joe	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

Russ: Speaking for myself you are not stepping on toes. I think it is important that we share our views and our knowledge for the benefit of all and let each person develop their own strategy. I did want to comment on this: "On the question of broad public participation, you have to remember that this market suffered from a severe bubble in 96-97 and the Bre-X bust. So you may NEVER see those players back into this market." The market is driven by fear and greed and if gold continues its bull, and you know where I stand there, eventually the public will be sucked in and that will be the first warning sign. I have related this story before on the thread but I think it worth repeating. In the seventies, my wife had I had (still have for that matter) four very good friends. I remember telling them at dinner one night that I had paid $1.10 for $1.00 worth of silver coins, which at the time could still be found in change occassionaly. I also informed them that I was buying gold. They laughed at me and jokingly reached in their pockets and purses and offered me their money at 110%. However years later when silver was $35.00 and ounce and gold around 600-700 and I announced that I had sold at dinner one night, they chastised me, and told me I was crazy. I don't know if you are old enough to remember the top in that crazy market, but a lot of people got sucked in near the top. Gold and silver prices were readily available in newspapers and the price was quoted almost daily on the evening news. (They did not have many financial news shows in those days) Many people got caught holding the bag, including a friend of mine who bought silver on margin and lost his booty. Yet having been through that we subsequently had a Bre-x. I also recall that stocks were in such disfavor in 1982 that some very good stocks were selling at 2 to 3 times earnings, below book and yielding 15% and no one wanted them. Yet look what happened. It does take a while for the mania to develope in most cases, it hasn't yet, but it will. We will see bonds yielding 15% or more and stocks so cheap you would think they were on fire sale and the price of gold in the paper every day and on the news and people who never invested in anything in their life but CD's will be buying gold and then we need to stop worrying about the top. At least that is the way I see it. God, I hope, I am not wrong. I may not be able to show my face here again. :) Little joe

To: russwinter who wrote (18845)	8/31/2003 11:04:22 AM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

you may very well be right on the correction, but I am a big believer in what russell says about not trying to trade in the early phases of bull market. buy em and hold em. you will often make money getting out and getting back in, but one day you will miss a big move. I do however, find his calling a market that has advanced 500% in less than three years, a "new", or "the beginning of" a bull market, sort of fuzzy thinking. he's been calling this for a long-time. it has moved a lot, but he thinks it's still "early." that only means it has a long way to run. I remember when slider called for a correction some time ago. he was wrong. I have big gains in my gold stocks which I don't want to give back, but I think with all of the economic problems, there is more risk of missing upside than downside. fleck thinks that in the next 90 days when it becomes apparent that the recovery is a mirage and greenspasm is an idiot there will be a mass exodus from the stock market and a huge move into gold. I am going to be there whenever it happens

To: russwinter who wrote (18845)	8/31/2003 11:33:37 AM
From: re3	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

<<<BTW, I'm selling the majority of my holdings, but not all. 1) well, i for one would be curious about which one(s) are keepers no matter what, you may have noted vt's response to me about that. 2) if you looked at my post with the prices of goldcorp from jan 2 to now, you'd see a canadian investor would still be down for the year and a US investor up...i concluded that post with a "hmm", but in thinking about it (please correct me if i'm off base here), the american investor is up on GG because they sold their American dollars to buy goldcorp (a prudent move), whereas a Canadian investor sold a now out performing currency to buy that same stock ...this should partly explain why this year has been a better year for some than others...while you and others south of the 49th were waiting out the doldrums and pain of the downdraft in feb and march, you had currency APPRECIATION. north of the 49th, i watched stuff like anatolia drift down and see the currency go against me... would they have been better off just selling their american dollars and buying canadian ones ? would that have been a better trade than trading US dollars for goldcorp ?

To: russwinter who wrote (18845)	8/31/2003 11:49:21 AM
From: austrieconomist	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 39344

Incorrect observation on Russell. <I have no quarrel with Richard Russell's work either. I do however, find his calling a market that has advanced 500% in less than three years, a "new", or "the beginning of" a bull market, sort of fuzzy thinking.> Russ, I guess you are not a Russell subscriber. He is analyzing the gold price, not PM stocks. And gold has advanced less than 50% from its $251 low. Compare this gain to the 1971-1974 gain in the gold price of 500%, or the 1976-1980 gain of 700% and there is nothing "fuzzy" about a label of the new bull market in gold being in its first phase, although with comments on being made on CNBC and other prime outlets no longer being in derision, and with ETFs in the process of being opened in markets all over the world, it is probably just entering the "second phase". He regards the PM stocks as purely derivative to the price of gold in the long term trend. I would be the last to defend Russell with regard to precision on every observation -- using weekly totals of M3 totals as evidence of Fed "turning on the spigot" is among his worst, IMHO, weekly figures are just noise and M# is the money statistic furthest away from direct Fed action-- it is the totality of his observations in identifying major trends and concepts that resonates with most of his subscribers. Opinions differ and yours are among the most valuable -- I just wanted to offer this as a clarification.

To: russwinter who wrote (18845)	8/31/2003 2:51:08 PM
From: Proud Deplorable	Respond to of 39344

<<and the Bre-X bust>> I made a fortune on Bre-X I made it by ignoring the daily trading although I sold a bit on the way up. I sold most of it near the top as even for me it looked increasingly suspicious. Most thought the fire at the shed was not significant at the time. I got worried then. This was before DeGuzman was murdered. Funny thing, the broker who suggested I buy Bre-X bought another 2,000 shares at 22.00 the day before it crashed to 2.00 approx. I just got through selling my last little bit then. Everyone knocks the Bre-X experience but if it says anything, it says that GOLD FEVER, WHEN IT HITS, will blind the average person and they will be unable to reason at all, just like those who kept buying at the top of the techs a couple years ago. Gold fever has NOT hit yet. I'm not burning down my own personal mining shed until it does. emerson