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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (11366)	9/2/2003 5:26:24 PM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95617

<The only conclusion I have reached is that this market advance may be sustained a lot longer than those of us who want to buy stocks cheaper might like.> It will last as long as the nearly free and endless money supply lasts. In the mail today, over $100k worth of no fee credit card offers for balance transfers and "just write yourself a cash advance check" all with Zero % for terms ranging from March 2004 til April 2005! (Yes 2005) Then I get a solicitation for this: blowingrockproperties.com 10 wonderful mountain acres for $800,0000. And I own the other side of the pictured ridge and can't even get a timber rep to come look about thinning it. Yet somebody is obviously fixing to plunk down 3/4 million in cash or debt for 10 acre "exclusive" tracts of land that the owner bought 3 years ago for $5,000 per acre? Its the twilight zone. Party on. Party lasts as long as Greenspan keeps the money flowing and rates low. Boom to bust. Bust to boom. Turning more and more of those in the middle to dust each time.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (11366)	9/2/2003 6:49:56 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95617

RE: "The difference between now and 1998 is vast..." I looked at S & P Stock Report for AMAT. Figures are for year end October. Tangible Book Value: 1998 $2.11 2002 $4.87 Low Price: $5.39 $10.26 Current Ratio: 3.1 5.4 % Long Term Debt: 16.4% 6.7% Cash: $575M $1285M Common Equity: $3121M $8020M Now these are balance sheet items, a measure of the company's worth, not income statement items, a measure of current performance. If one judges from these items, AMAT made a lower relative low in 2002 than in 1998. I will grant you that the performance in 2002 relative to the low price was much below the performance in 1998 relative to the low price. The price that you can't accept is based on: 1. AMAT performance was due to external factors (bubble burst). By all indications, balance sheet and product line, it is stronger now than it was in 1998 and stronger now compared to its competitors. 2. The bubble was a single phenomenon which did not change the long term prospects for technology and the semiconductor industry. In fact, the prospects look brighter than ever. 3. The low interest rates make the lost opportunity cost of storing money in AMAT much lower than the historical norm. We don't need a "monumental recovery." That is good because we will not get one for a few years. We need and it looks like we will get a slowly accelerating recovery that will last longer than the historical norms. In this environment, there will be modest corrections when prices get ahead of themselves, but nothing that will be serious enough to be called a "sell off."

To: Return to Sender who wrote (11366)	9/2/2003 7:59:13 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95617

Well, the NASDAQ is really starting to roll now. 16 trading days ago the NASDAQ closed at 1644.03 - today it closed at 1841.48 - up 197.45 points, or on the average, 12+ points per day. I think Sarmad is being far too conservative. He thinks we are going to get to 2000 in the "next 3 to 4 months". Let's see, we are up 197+ points in 16 days - up 31 plus points today - we are being far too understated about the strength of this rally. A few days ago, I said we would get to 2300 by the middle of January - even that is probably being too conservative!:) Now lets see - if the NASDAQ can do 31 points a day(maybe it can do even more once the traders get rolling), by next Tuesday we should be ready to "bust through" 2000. Even if we stay at the same day rate of roughly 12+ points per day - it will only take us another 13 trading days to get to 2000 - that will be about Friday, 9/19. From there it is not very far to 2300. Let's see, at the rate of the last 16 days, approximately 8 trading days means another 100 points, or in 24 trading days we will be at 2300 - that puts us at about Friday, 24 October. Apparently we are being far too conservative in our estimates. We are just beginning up the curve of the "bubble". Further acceleration should be expected.:) After all, there is really nothing standing in our way. Times are good, plenty of liquidity around - I mean everything is moving onward and upward.:) Can anybody find anything "substantial" that is standing in our way? By the way - a lot of silver bullets released this morning just before the market opened. The big brokerage houses are giving the big "gererals" nice upgrades to earnings estimates and target prices. Dell, Oracle and NSM were on tap this morning - keep tuned for another few silver bullets to be released tomorrow morning. We are on a "roll" now - got to keep it going, and Oh yes - accelerate the action a little please.:) We have to get all the "non-believers" to part with their money and jump in - shouldn't take much longer now. After all, we wouldn't want to be left behind would we in our march to the 2000+ area?:) Don