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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (32215)	9/4/2003 1:23:53 AM
From: nspolar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Claude, how are those dollars coming home, near term? Increased US exports? We are not low cost producers, and dollar devaluation does not immediately make us one, considering other currency issues. Increased export of services? I don't think so, since India, Malaysia, and China are not short of two legged homo sapien critters, some of which are decently educated these days. And if dollars do come home, are they not coming home at significantly reduced value? Maybe we sell em gold/silver eh? Don't exactly understand where you are coming from, in the short term. That doesn't necessarily mean that I think we are going to disappear. It just seems this is dynamic affair that is going to take quite a while to work out. Besides, you upset my run of posts, so I'm a little peeved, LOL. On another subject how far along are we in this current pm run, any ideas on that?

To: Claude Cormier who wrote (32215)	9/4/2003 10:31:45 AM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 36161

Claude. Inflation? During a super cycle mega debt implosion? You completely misunderstand the big picture, my friend. Other than isolated and temporary pockets of inflation due to genuine supply/demand bottle necks in certain specific sectors AND.... A failing ATTEMPT by Greensputin to reflate in order to get the incumbents reelected next year? THERE WILL BE NO INFLATION!! This is NOT the late 1970s, Claude. That was the K Wave inflation peak. In the 80s and 90s we had disinflation. Now we're clearly moving into a classic K winter deflation. In addition, this is no ordinary K wave decline in prices, wages, etc. It's also a supercycle decline that's much bigger and more severe in it's consequences than a single K wave. Gold will do well because it's the only item in the monetary system that is actually a CREDIT not a debit, irregardless of what CBs and governments cooked balance sheets claim. Even the dollar is a <promise to pay>. Simply another note, marker, IOU. Debt is deflationary and the world financial system, particularly the worlds largest economy and consumer of last resort - the United States - will be devastated by it. Although I've been posting about the unfolding of a primary secular deflationary trend on SI for several years, nspolar has characterized the temporal dimension beautifully by introducing the analogy of a movie in slow motion. Even the average LT investor is accustomed to far too short a perspective to recognize these kind of cycles. It really falls more into the perview of the historian. And speaking with that hat on,<g> my read is we are STILL early in the deflationary sequence of events. It won't really hit home to the majority of analysts and investors until major debt defaults by corporations AWA soverign governments begin to occur in clusters. Tic toc.... Isopatch