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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: greenspirit who wrote (113908)	9/4/2003 3:21:07 PM
From: Elsewhere	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 281500

What do you think the chances are Europe will step up to the plate and lead in Iraq? The White House administration insists on remaining in control in Iraq. How should Europe then accomplish "stepping up to the plate and lead"?

To: greenspirit who wrote (113908)	9/4/2003 5:50:56 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

<What do you think the chances are Europe will step up to the plate and lead in Iran?> Depends on what you mean by "step up to the plate"? If you mean the utopian NeoCon vision of dominoes falling, serial Regime Change, and stuffing Freedom down the throats of Muslims with our bayonets.......that's a non-starter in Europe. The Germans are the core of Europe, and they are pacifists. It took 2.5M dead in WW1, and 5.5M in WW2, but they learned. They are no longer willing to sacrifice their children on the alter of the Gods of Blood and Thunder. It would be nice if the French would quit selling nuclear technology to Iran, and others. But, even if they do, the Russians will step in, to supply the demand. Or the Chinese. Or the N. Koreans. Or the black market. So, stopping the spread of this (or any) technology, isn't a solution. Sanctions might work. We would have to organize a world-wide embargo of Iran. Nobody buy any of their oil, nobody sell them anything. The embargo would have to be airtight and total. It's unlikely this can be arranged, or enforced, with Iran (or N. Korea). A pre-conditon for this plan, would be raising Iraqi and Saudi oil exports, to match Iran's current exports. Iran can probably sabotage that, by sending guerrillas, with bombs and maps of the oil facilities, across the porous frontiers. What about Regime Change? That's the NeoCon Holy Grail. Unfortunately, the hoped-for popular uprising isn't happening. Iran has more population, more land (and it's all mountains) than Iraq. The Iranians have a detailed plan for defeating anyone who tries to "do an Iraq" on them: allow the enemy to occupy the nation, have the entire adult male population armed and organized into small cells, wage guerrilla war. They estimate it'll take 5000 dead Crusaders, to make the rest give up and go home. Sounds like a good guess, and a workable plan, to me. So, that leaves accomodation and Containment. Which is all the U.S. or Europe can do, if we are realistic about it. That's what Europe will do, which probably doesn't meet your definition of "stepping up to the plate".

To: greenspirit who wrote (113908)	9/11/2003 8:59:31 AM
From: Elsewhere	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

What do you think the chances are Europe will step up to the plate and lead in Iran? U.S. Allies Press Russia to Back Iran Nuke Deadline Thu Sep 11, 5:37 AM ET By Louis Charbonneau story.news.yahoo.com VIENNA (Reuters) - The United States and key allies worked through the night to get Russia and South Africa to back a U.N. nuclear resolution Thursday giving Tehran until Oct. 31 to prove it has no secret nuclear weapons program. Diplomats from France and Germany held closed-door talks with countries on the 35-nation board of governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to get them to support the toughly-worded draft offering Iran a last chance to show compliance with the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). ... FRANCE AND GERMANY WITH THE U.S. France and Germany assumed the task of trying to convince opponents on the board to back a deadline ...