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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Moderated Thread - please read rules before posting -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: slacker711 who wrote (36829)	9/5/2003 10:58:11 AM
From: Jim Mullens	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 196520

Slacker, your further insight on the competition’s chipsets and the GSM-WCDMA handover issue is appreciated and makes sense in light of TT remarks at the Cowen event. As I recall, TT stated words to the effect that most of the handset issues (battery life, etc) have been worked out and the remaining issues are primarily network based. He mentioned VOD in particular and that they had many infrastructure providers and thus IOT was an ongoing activity. TT also stated that the Q sees WCDMA handset sales at less than 10M units in 2004 and stated that DoCoMo’s WCDMA target is 6M subs by March of 2005. I believe you recently posted an SSB analyst’s estimate for DoCoMo Foma subs reflecting 14.6M by March of 2005 and 2.9M by March of 2004. Extrapolating the March ’05 estimate (14.6M) backward to Dec 2004 could yield between 11 – 12M subs by CY 2004 ye (considerably higher than DoCoMo’s target). I also recall DoCoMo stating that they are targeting 50% of their subs (22M of 44M) being WCDMA within two to three years. In light of the above, do you feel that 10M WCDMA handset sales in 2004 may be on the light side? jim

To: slacker711 who wrote (36829)	9/6/2003 4:01:18 AM
From: Raymond	Respond to of 196520

Slacker. The GSM-> UMTS and UMTS -> GSM works with a couple of different chipsets.It also works on the infrastructure side. But of course the GSM networks must be prepared for it as well as the UMTS networks and it take some time. But as you took Vodafone as an example.I am pretty sure that they will take their network in service soon with UMTS <-> GSM handover working. I think a lot of people tries to find problems that doesn't existJust remember the nonsynchronized basestation used in the WCDMA network.I shouldn't work according to most of the so called experts here but how much reports of problems have you all heard lately from the real networks about handoverproblems.In the WCDMA standard they have done a lot of things very complexed.The advantage is that the standard is totally open ,you don't need to make changes in the standard to create new services or different type of multi calls. For example simultaneous speech and packetdata. I think from now on the developement will go much faster in WCDMA then any other standard because of the character of the specification. If you take GSM as an example that wasn't designed from the beginning to support a lot of different packet data services the DTM(dual transfer mode,packet speech at the same time) is very complexed to implement and hasn't been rolled out yet anywhere what I know.In WCDMA you don't need to specify how a DTM function should look like it's just to implement it in the network and test it with the mobilevendors.