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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (7065)	9/6/2003 7:11:01 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

When you invest in PMCS, AMCC, etc., you must be able to describe why INTC or someone else will not be able to replace them in their markets and why competition in those market will not be based solely on price, i.e. a commodity. I haven't done a competitive analysis, but I might lower the buyer's burden a notch by questioning INTC's omnipotence. If INTC possessed such a power, you would simply buy INTC and be done with it. Coexistence with an 800 lb gorilla is generally possible as long as you are not another gorilla or seen as a threat. INTC is not MSFT. As for the second issue, most markets tend to resemble commodities as they mature and products are standardized to match consumer preferences. The key is innovation and product differentiation. Over time it will be possible to determine whether AMCC and PMCS have demonstrated their ability to survive in a jungle by carving out an entrenched niche, or whether they were simply lucky enough to temporarily inhabit an expanding market without a predator. Time will tell and you are probably wise to wait a decade and know, rather than speculate on what you cannot know. The hard part is to figure out what the broadband medium will be, wireless, fiber optic, etc Fot the immediate future, it will be sufficient to assume it will be all of the above, plus copper, cable and satellite.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (7065)	9/8/2003 12:04:33 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Where are we going?....part of a PM I sent to someone on SI.....would appreciate comments about where you think we will be in a little over 6 years from now. *********************** For all of the talk of irrational exhuberance of investors from the Bears, I look and look, but cannot find any. I watch the shows(Rukeyser, Bulls & Bears) and absolutely NOBODY is recommending tech stocks. In fact, when they usually are discussed it is in a negative manner. My guess is that they will be recommending them in another 12 months or so once the recovery is underway and visibility is much improved. Also going over some historical numbers trying to peer into the future. Just use a little imagination to see what is possible in 2010. I think people have a sense that we will take decades to get back over the 2000 numbers, because after all, that was a "bubble". But in unit terms, we have already surpassed those numbers this year! Let me repeat: we have ALREADY surpassed the unit volume numbers from 2000, the so-called "bubble" year.** Pricing has just been very weak. icinsights.com IC revenue by Decade with % increase decade over decade 1970 $2.4B 1980 $12.8B 433.333333333333 1990 $50.5B 294.53125 2000 $204B 303.960396039604 2010 $ Regards, Brian