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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bcrafty who wrote (80735)	9/6/2003 8:04:12 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 209892

I've found that the people on this board whose words I respect the most are not those that sound like permabears like Fleckenstein or those who are only bullish on bear-type plays (metals, commodities, energy plays, etc) but those that instead are basically intermediate-term trend followers. Shack, Allan, jjstingray, ajtj99, and several others fall into this class. Some, if not all of them, might have longer term bearish views, but that doesn't matter to their current trading: what matters is what the market is doing now and if the market is going up, then the higher R/R ratio is in going long, regardless of longer term prospects. Yes and No IMO Yes there have been many good calls here. However one has to understand one's personality. There are many people that only trade one way. Zeev for example only goes long. Earlie only goes short (except for metals and true values) I respect both of them a great deal. Hat's off to anyone capable of going both ways. In almost any market there is something trending either up or down. Those that stayed in metals primarily did very well. I would like to see this board trade corn. Seriously! There is only the chart. No more no less. There is no possible emotional attachment that I can see about corn. Corn is not going to Zero! That is a fact. It just put in a huge bottom and a fortune could have been made in it. Unfortunately I did not get my commodities acct setup in time. There is no PE to worry about, no analysts pumping corn, no gaps down or up out of the blue without some semblance of a FA reason. Yet the charts rule. How tough can it be? I seriously would like to see AlansAlias or Shack trade corn. However, since these are cyclical, I doubt EWAVE applies. Hell, perhaps it does. I would be curious abou this as well. Sorry I digress, but seriously I would be very very interested in corn, beans, and wheat discussion. PURE CHART reading cause that is all there is! Shack - what say yee? Now, as for risk/reward. I believe you are totally wrong here. After a one year rally, in the face of that employment news, I think one to enter huge long now, is totally nuts. There is a difference between someone with huge long profits and someone just entering now IMO. Seriously, going long now risks a big move down, a lower high and another move down to confirm. On some of this Naz crap that could be a 25% loss if not more. For someone in say AMZN from 12 or SNDK from 15-20 that is easily an acceptable risk. For someone who has been on the sidelines, thinking about getting in now is totally 100% nuts IMO. Note I am talking about the overall markets as opposed to individual charts. But clearly one has to be 100% on their toes here as compared to March. So.... IMO there is nothing wrong with Fleck, Earlie, Zeev, AA, Shack, or anyone else as long as they stick to what works for THEM! M

To: bcrafty who wrote (80735)	9/6/2003 8:04:15 PM
From: SwampDogg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 209892

<<only bullish on bear-type plays (metals, commodities, energy plays, etc)>> Don't understand that statement at all. If they are in bull markets how can it be a "bear-type play"? The most money has been made in those areas in the last 3 years and this could continue. Just because it isn't high PE crap doesn't make buyers bearish does it? The other argument would be that any bullish world economic recovery would actually benefit these "bearish" plays as they did in the mid 1990s. I am quite sure that Fleck is doing pretty well with his PAAS.

To: bcrafty who wrote (80735)	9/6/2003 9:09:25 PM
From: Square_Dealings	Respond to of 209892

"one has to remember that he almost always speaks in terms of fundamentals rather than technicals" Yeah, it really ticks me off when people talk about fundamentals. If we could just eliminate that garbage we'd get DOW 35,000 ROFL M.

To: bcrafty who wrote (80735)	9/7/2003 10:52:15 PM
From: skinowski	Respond to of 209892

permabears like Fleckenstein Fleck is sort of a perma-likable guy. He seems really sincere about his beliefs. Moreover, to my knowledge he has been profitable trading as a bear even during the Mania. That's remarkable. Probably the smartest thing is to buy the dips in uptrending tradables and sell rallies in downtrending ones. As simple as that. Maintaining both long and short positions at all times also gives some protection in case of sudden big moves.