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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Return to Sender who wrote (11488)	9/8/2003 9:24:52 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95611

STMicroelectronics (STM: news, chart, profile), Europe's largest chipmaker, rose 1.4 percent in Paris. Pasquale Pistorio, chairman and CEO, told reporters at an Italian conference that technology and telecom companies will resume investment spending in 2004..."the infrastructure sector, after such a long time in stagnation, should start to recover." He noted that while 2004 should be better than 2003, he is not predicting "explosive growth," Reuters reported. CMOS chart looks great. Haven't looked into the fundies except for a quick glance at the financials and current ratios, which look similar to many of it's peers. As with the group, if business continues to accelerate then they are probably a very good buy at this stage. Multiples should expand as the recovery picks up steam and the current low multiples based on past sales trends may not be appropriate valuation metrics since they are looking backwards, not into the recovery.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (11488)	9/8/2003 11:55:30 AM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95611

RTS <stock can trade at 27x peak cycle earnings.> Read that statement again. 27 X peak cycle earnings? Or $55. What if the "upgrade" was worded "100X Average yearly earnings over a 5 year cycle"? Would that be a proper valuation? Its more than likely going to achieve the same end result target price. CYMI peak earnings will almost surely be $2 at the top of the cycle. Just as by the time the cycle goes boom to bust the average yearly will be somewhere around 50 cents. So the great buy at 27X Peak equals 100X Average. Is this smart investing? Is this sound advice from the broker? Would even a 27PE on average earnings be sound investing? That would be a $15 target price. Far away from the $55. But of course, earnings do not matter in this mark-it. Neither up nor down. Earnings don't matter, basic financial fundamentals don't matter, sound financial advice is nonexistant. May as well just head for Vegas, they don't charge you a commission to roll the dice, and you get free meals, drinks, and board if you gamble as much $$$ as we probably all trade on a day.

To: Return to Sender who wrote (11488)	9/8/2003 12:27:42 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95611

RtS, As usual, nice documentation of the factors moving the market this morning. All entities took advantage of the weekend to get their "ducks lined up in a row" to make sure the market got a good start for the week. Here are some other "snips" from Briefing.com's Stock Ticker page this morning. <Once again, the technology stocks are leading the action, their advance supported by a number of analyst upgrades... Specifically, CSFB upgraded IBM (IBM 88.35 +1.40) to Outperform from Neutral citing the company as the ideal late-cycle tech spending recovery play due to the complexion of its installed base, and Fulcrum upgraded Oracle (ORCL 13.26 +0.18) to Buy from Neutral based on its belief that the software maker will deliver solid Q1 (Aug) results...> <Analysts have done their part to keep the rally going strong, upgrading a number of stocks/sectors that have already enjoyed substantial runs year-to-date... Smith Barney, for instance, raised its view of the Semiconductor Equipment sector to Overweight from Market-Weight, saying recent evidence has indicated that an acceleration of industry fundamentals is looming...> And we even have Osama bin Laden contributing his part this morning.:) <Additionally, reports that the hunt for Osama bin Laden has been narrowed to a 40-square-mile section of the Waziristan region of Pakistan have acted as a supportive factor to the bullish tone...> Now you will have to admit, that's pulling out all the stops(firing a big silver bullet) to even pull Osama into pushing up the market on a bright Monday morning. What will they think of next?:) Don