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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: reaper who wrote (81107)	9/10/2003 9:48:29 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 209892

good post Reaper.

To: reaper who wrote (81107)	9/10/2003 10:17:49 PM
From: The Freep	Respond to of 209892

Reaper -- somewhere today I was reading about how lumber prices have gone upppppppp. Perhaps lumber costs get passed on to the home buyer only, but what about all the houses the builders are building that already have been paid for? Is it possible this has an impact on them? the freep, daring into the FA

To: reaper who wrote (81107)	9/10/2003 11:21:37 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 209892

Interesting stuff Reaper, although the FA never helps me with TA. Remember our discussion of RIMM a few months ago? The market obviously doesn't care FA. And the market loves those REITS still, I don't see them topping as of yet. The $DJR (REIT index) has just broken out above its 2002 high so its unlikely the bull is over there. As for the homebuilders, they all look sick to me in the near-term and possibly in the larger time frames as well, although its too early to say. I'm not sure I would declare that bubble dead quite yet. At the very least they look like great shorts near-term. Most have a lot of air in the chart and could drain quickly here. CTX looks the weakest.

To: reaper who wrote (81107)	11/4/2003 10:20:09 PM
From: Spekulatius	Respond to of 209892

Mortgage REIT's - I have been pondering about your post from September a bit and I agree with you that the Mortgage REIT's look done for the most parts. ironically i believe that it will be the improving economy and the higher short term interest rates that will kill them. My favorite short candidate is ANH right now as they have what i consider a fairly weak management/business model and a higher premium to book value. RWT, the king of leverage (20:1 leverage) has been on a tear lately which makes me think that the time for shorting the mortgage REIT's might not yet quite there yet. What is your favorite short candidate in the mortage REIT universe?