Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : PRESIDENT GEORGE W. BUSH -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard S who wrote (458018)	9/12/2003 9:33:14 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 769667

Dean has hurt himself a lot this week. I think you'll see his numbers going down from here, not up. He has zero support from the Clinton wing of the party, blacks, Hispanics and the powers in DC. He'll make it to the convention but unless he shocks everyone by sweeping primaries across the country, a near impossible task with only his anti-war liberal male white base, he'll be shut down at the convention. The party would choose Kerry or Gephardt before Dean. If both were hit by a truck, then Gore would step in to keep it out of Dean's hands. The DNC does not want Dean anywhere near the national election. They know that will play right into Bush's hands. They have the power to stop Dean and they will, if necessary. Clark may or may not run, but he's really running for Veep as Graham is. He's a welcome addition to the race because he hurts Bush most of all. No one but Braun will drop out early. She has no money. Why should they? Edwards, Lieberman and Graham will not make it to the convention. They will use whatever clout they have to help Kerry or possibly Gephardt. Anyone but Dean. Dean has a long and lonely road ahead of him, though admittedly he has a lot of followers on that road. Again, he is the Paul Tsongas of this year and will inspire a lot of conscientious people. But in the end, he's the wrong guy to run against Bush and most people know it. Winning is what counts this year, not sending a message. And to win you have to beat Bush on military, counter-terrorism and foreign affairs issues. That is going to be Bush's whole campaign. He's going to try to totally ignore the domestic front and scare people into voting for his "strength". It's mostly phony but it works a little too well. That's why we need a Silver Star winner to stop him dead in his tracks not "a little man from a little liberal state" which they would brand Dean as, quite successfully no doubt.

To: Richard S who wrote (458018)	9/12/2003 9:51:25 PM
From: American Spirit	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 769667

Dean cannot get a majority of delegates. Even if your wildly optimistic 37% happens, (which would mean he'd have to win about 50% of the vote during the primaries because few Super Delegates would back him), where is he going to get the other 13.1%? Lieberman, Gephardt, Graham, Edwards and Sharpton won't give their delegates to Dean. And only Gephardt will probably have 13.1% to give. Kerry won't either. Dean's only prayer would be if Clark is in the race with enough delegates to put him over the top and they merge as a ticket. But that is real long shot IMHO. Then again, anything is possible. But don't hold your breath. More likely, Dean finishes with about 20% of the delegates and 25% of the vote and is the odd man out, with the party powers getting behind Kerry or possibly Gephardt if he does surprisingly well. If Kerry doesn't make it, Gore has a shot to break the deadlock because the party needs someone they really trust and Gore would be perceived as "deserving" it. The party simply does not trust Dean or any outsider. Dean would be more likely to win the White House as an Independent in a three-way race. Maybe he will do that too, break off when not nominated and run against both parties. That's more likely than him getting nominated. And if no one picks Clark as a Veep, then Dean picks him. But the Dem ticket could woo Clark back by promising him Secretary of Defense or State. Third party challengers have a steep mountain to climb. None have ever won. The game is rigged, remember, one of two houses always wins and both parties nominate the candidate they want.