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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (38199)	9/13/2003 2:17:49 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

agreed that lower energy prices will improve the economic environment, as energy is prices mostly on BTU contents, and the price of oil is indicative of the price of coal natural gas etc.

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (38199)	9/13/2003 10:05:13 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello James, The basics are just that, and the observable facts are the same, basic and observable. Can we agree that a there is no such thing as a 'Jobless Recovery', just as there is no such event as 'Profitless Prosperity'. When we are tempted to agree with the concept of Jobless Recovery and Profitless Prosperity, it is not that we have entered a new era where such events can occur, but because we have entered an era where our vocabulary is found to be wanting and our experience cannot guide us as before. I have always used HK economy as a simple model for the US version, suitably adjusted, and a Jobless Recovery and Profitless Prosperity is just other terms for Recession and Decline. On the issue of energy price, It now costs the US twice the Iraqi GDP to maintain what can only be termed as a unstable equilibrium and unsatisfactory situation, and there is effectively no oil coming out of that space. This is classically termed a 'bad trade' in financial circles and on main streets. The danger of spreading instability in the Middle East is real, and the threat of declining oil export is genuine. The oil is getting expensive, but the cost is not yet reflected in the price. At any one moment, we can term ourselves bulls or bears based on the current set of numbers and observable trends, and we may change our stance based on our evaluation of the likely trends of the same current numbers and observable trends. I am not enthusiastic on financial returns based on mainstream thinking about cyclical companies, more of the same Gillette, oh whao again Intel, and the mysteries of Fannie, Freddie and JPM. I am betting on CAD, gold, NEM, energy royalties, and am waiting to re-enter China/HK share-space. I also plan to substitute a USD loan to retire my JYen debt. Chugs, Jay