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To: JohnM who wrote (8106)9/15/2003 4:00:24 PM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793790
 
Even the Muslims hold their Noses! :>)

Muslims boycott Archbishop's talks
By Jonathan Petre, Religion Correspondent
(Filed: 13/09/2003)

The Archbishop of Canterbury, Dr Rowan Williams, suffered a blow yesterday when Islamic scholars boycotted top-level talks between the faiths.

The Muslim academics abruptly withdrew from a two-day meeting with Anglican delegates in New York in protest at the appointment of the worldwide Church's first actively homosexual bishop................

telegraph.co.uk



To: JohnM who wrote (8106)9/15/2003 7:42:42 PM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793790
 
Liars in Love
HBO's K Street is good drama but lousy epistemology.
By Timothy Noah
Posted Monday, September 15, 2003, at 4:09 PM PT

If politics is show business for ugly people, as Paul Begala famously put it, what do we call politics when it's served up as show business?

There's nothing new about boosting the verisimilitude of political fiction by lacing movies and TV series with cameo appearances by real politicians, journalists, and other Washington hangers-on. The technique is at least as old as HBO's Tanner '88, produced 15 years ago by Robert Altman and Garry Trudeau. In Tanner, a make-believe Democratic presidential candidate named Jack Tanner interacted with real candidates like Bruce Babbitt. As you would expect in any work of fiction, the larger truths were provided not by the real Washingtonians but by the fake ones—Michael Murphy as Tanner and most especially Pamela Reed as Tanner's deliciously hard-boiled campaign manager.

The premiere episode of K Street—the new HBO series from producers Steven Soderbergh and George Clooney—is something different, because its star, James Carville, is a real person playing a slightly fictionalized version of himself. (Carville, ironically, is Begala's onetime partner in the political-consulting business; the two became famous by helping to steer Bill Clinton to victory, and today they co-host CNN's Crossfire.) In real life, Carville is pretty much out of the political-consulting business. According to his Web site, Carville hasn't taken on a new client in the United States since Clinton's election, though he remains a name partner in two London-based firms, Gould Greenberg Carville and G.C.S. Issue Management, where he does some international work. In K Street, though, "James Carville" and his wife, Mary Matalin (who recently left the White House, where she was senior adviser to Dick Cheney), have decided to cash in on their bipartisan connections by starting a Washington lobbying firm. It's no small testament to the powerful lure of show biz that Carville and Matalin agreed to pretend on K Street that they're much sleazier than they are in real life.

I've stated elsewhere my worry that K Street will further glamorize Washington's influence-peddling racket and that it will lend too much credence to lobbyists' self-image as wayfarers through a thicket of moral complexity. The inaugural episode did not dispel that anxiety. It focuses on the decision by "Carville" to provide debate prep to presidential candidate "Howard Dean" (who appears as himself). "We're going to need some client shoring-up," a worried "Matalin" says, and dispatches an aide named Maggie Morris to soothe Republican Sens. "Don Nickles" of Oklahoma and "Rick Santorum" of Pennsylvania. (As played by Mary McCormack, Maggie, humorless and consumed by petty anxieties in the Beltway manner, could be a promising character.) It isn't entirely clear whether "Nickles" and "Santorum" are themselves the clients. If they are, it isn't really plausible that "Matalin" would worry they'd be surprised or at all troubled that name partner "Carville" was dabbling in Democratic politics. More plausibly, "Nickles" and "Santorum" are being soothed because congressional Republicans have lately been pressuring lobby firms to be more pro-Republican, brandishing the veiled (and sometimes not-so-veiled) threat that their corporate clients will otherwise suffer. Any assistance from "Carville" to "Dean" might therefore risk being seen as a taunt. Santorum is actually a key enforcer in this shakedown; he holds weekly meetings with Republican lobbyists to check up on whether they've hired more Republicans. (For more on this, click here.) I do wish HBO had found some way to make this unseemly reality more explicit to K Street's viewers.

Most of this first installment shows "Carville" indulging his partisan passions while dutifully pausing, from time to time, to consider the risk it poses to his new company and to marital peace. ("This thing is gonna cost me right out the wazoo," he frets at one point, with believable insincerity.) Once or twice I found myself ready to shout at the screen, "Well, if you knew you couldn't stop helping Democrats, why did you become a sellout corporate lobbyist?" Then I remembered that the real Carville hadn't. Carville did marry Matalin, however, and the two play their Hepburn-and-Tracy scenes with genuine flair. No doubt they've benefited from honing their act on public-affairs TV and the lecture circuit for more than a decade. At this point, one suspects, the real challenge for Carville and Matalin would be playing their real selves, not synthetic ones.

The liveliest scene shows "Carville" and "Begala" prepping "Dean." Part of its fizz comes from the simple fact that Dean is right now the front-runner for the Democratic nomination, and part of it comes from the audience's knowledge that the debate in question took place just last week. Mostly, though, it's a reminder that electoral politics is not only more elevating but also more interesting than whatever's doing on K Street. In the prep scene, "Carville" gives "Dean" characteristically pithy advice ("Don't become the front-runner now that you are the front-runner"). He also feeds "Dean" a wisecrack that the real Dean actually used in the real debate, to the effect that if having lots of black constituents made you more sensitive about race, then Trent Lott would be Martin Luther King. According to the New York Times, this was no simulation; Dean really was fed the line by Carville.

Will I keep watching? Absolutely. The half-hour premiere was briskly paced and nicely framed with the gradual introduction of a new, vaguely sinister-seeming character named Francisco Dupré (played by Roger G. Smith), a refugee from California politics an investor is forcing "Carville" and "Matalin" to hire. I do hope, though, that as K Street progresses, the show will feature fewer "real" people and more fictional ones. That will produce fewer distractions about how the "real" people differ from themselves. And it may free up the actors to paint the lobbying world in less muted tones. It's a lot more lurid than K Street lets on.

Timothy Noah writes "Chatterbox" for Slate.

Article URL: slate.msn.com



To: JohnM who wrote (8106)9/15/2003 11:52:08 PM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793790
 
Brooks is in good form again.

Republicans for Dean
By DAVID BROOKS


The results of the highly prestigious Poll of the Pollsters are in! I called eight of the best G.O.P. pollsters and strategists and asked them, on a not-for-attribution basis, if they thought Howard Dean would be easier to beat than the other major Democratic presidential candidates. Here, and I'm paraphrasing, are the results:

"Ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha!"

You would have thought I had asked them if Danny DeVito would be easier to beat in a one-on-one basketball game than Shaquille O'Neal. They all thought Dean would be easier to beat, notwithstanding his impressive rise. Some feared John Kerry, others John Edwards, because his personality wears well over time, and others even Bob Graham, because he can carry Florida, more than Dean. As their colleague Bill McInturff put it atop a memo on the Dean surge: "Happy Days Are Here Again (for Republicans)."

I think the pollsters are probably right, but I'd feel a lot more confident if I could find somebody who really understood the forces that are reshaping the American electorate.

Over the past few decades, the electorate has become much better educated. In 1960, only 22 percent of voters had been to college; now more than 52 percent have. As voters become more educated, they are more likely to be ideological and support the party that embraces their ideological label. As a result, the parties have polarized. There used to be many conservatives in the Democratic Party and many liberals in the Republican Party, groups that kept their parties from drifting too far off-center.

Now, there is a Democratic liberal mountain and a Republican conservative mountain. Democrats and Republicans don't just disagree on policies — they don't see the same reality, and they rarely cross over and support individual candidates from the other side. As Gary Jacobson, a political scientist at the University of California at San Diego, has shown, split-ticket voting has declined steadily.

The question is whether this evolution changes the way we should think about elections. The strategists in the Intensity School say yes. They argue that it no longer makes sense to worry overmuch about the swing voters who supposedly exist in the political center because the electorate's polarization has hollowed out the center. The number of actual swing voters — people who actually switch back and forth between parties — is down to about 7 percent of the electorate. Moreover, the people in this 7 percent group have nothing in common with one another. It doesn't make sense to try to win their support because there is no coherent set of messages that will do it.

Instead, it's better to play to the people on your own mountain and get them so excited they show up at the polls. According to this line of reasoning, Dean, Mr. Intensity, is an ideal Democratic candidate.

The members of the Inclusiveness School disagree. They argue that there still are many truly independent voters, with estimates ranging from 10 to 33 percent of the electorate. Moreover, the Inclusiveness folks continue, true independents do have a coherent approach to politics. Anti-ideological, the true independents do not even listen to candidates who are partisan, strident and negative. They are what the pollster David Winston calls "solutionists"; they respond to upbeat candidates who can deliver concrete benefits: the Family and Medical Leave Act, more cops in their neighborhoods, tax rebate checks.

By this line of thinking, Dean is a terrible candidate. His partisan style drives off the persuadable folks who rarely bother to vote in primaries but who do show up once every four years for general elections.

The weight of the data, it seems to me, supports the Inclusiveness side. And the chief result of polarization is that the Democrats have become detached from antipolitical independent voters. George Bush makes many liberal Democrats froth at the mouth, but he does not have this effect on most independents. Democrats are behaving suicidally by not embracing what you might, even after yesterday's court decision, call the Schwarzenegger Option: supporting a candidate so ideologically amorphous that he can appeal to these swingers.

Which is why so many Republicans are quietly gleeful over Dean's continued momentum. It is only the dark cloud of Wesley Clark, looming on the horizon, that keeps their happiness from being complete.

nytimes.com



To: JohnM who wrote (8106)9/16/2003 5:50:55 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793790
 
Oliphant said on PBS that he enjoys going after the Frontrunner. A very good column!


THOMAS OLIPHANT
Dean mired in explaining goofs
By Thomas Oliphant, 9/14/2003

BALTIMORE

EVERY SERIOUS presidential candidate needs to live in fear of three simple words: "Smith later explained." They are now part of Howard Dean's life, and they have achieved some traction in the political world, even as his campaign continues to rake in dollars, grass roots workers, and Iowa and New Hampshire polling points.

Dean later explained his position on Israel.

Dean later explained his position on Social Security.

Dean later explained his position on the Cuban embargo and the tax cuts for moderate-income Americans he wants to junk. And in a head-scratching combination of inaccuracy and egomania, Dean later explained his weird assertion that he was the only white candidate willing to talk about race before white audiences.

When those words or their synonyms pop up in the press, the candidate is not only screwing up, he has been busted. He is explaining because he is having to wiggle out of a fix he put himself in.

Watching them do it is one of the joys of politics, and watching Dean do it is instructive as well because the difficulty this mass-marketed straight talker has sometimes in actually talking straight is considerable. Of late, he has managed to mix inadequate explanations with a revealing annoyance that he is being subjected to slings and arrows that go with the territory for everybody else.

Dean's latest later explanations concern Israel and race.

Regarding the latter, he confidently declared during last week's Congressional Black Caucus-sponsored debate: "I'm the only white politician who ever talks about race in front of white audiences."

It was an astonishing boast first of all because of its flagrant inaccuracy. John Edwards talks about race constantly because it is central to part of his basic message that white Southerners carry a special leadership burden in this area. Joe Lieberman always does it because his gutsy volunteer work in the South 40 years ago helped form his character. And Bob Graham does likewise to make the point that he has rich experience in one of the country's most diverse states.

It was also astonishing because of the false implication of superiority in Dean's boast -- and I am not the first to note that there is a veneer of superiority that infects the entire Dean presentation.

Finally, the campaign's response to getting tagged for this was astonishing. It wasn't an "oops" or an "I Misspoke," it was an exasperated noting that Dean had said this before and no one had complained. The implication here is that if you take a swipe at him you're just another hack or pol playing the game, in contrast to his loftier purpose.

That attitude suffused the Dean approach to Israel as well. Here Dean got in trouble for comments in casual conversation with reporters in New Mexico the week before to the effect that the United States needed to be "even-handed" as regards Israel and the Palestinians, that "it's not our place to take sides," and that Israel would have to get out of the West Bank and dismantle nearly all its settlements for there to be lasting peace.

The point is not that Dean would endanger Israel's security, which is absurd. The point is that he made a rookie mistake -- failing to recognize that the foundation of the US role in the Middle East is an unshakable commitment to Israel and that negotiation details are for the parties to resolve with our unceasing help.

In the give and take of politics, it was a goof, and Joe Lieberman was within his rights to call him on it -- in fact, he was right to do so. Rather than take the point before, during, and after the debate, Dean instead called Lieberman a demagogue and his criticisms despicable, desperate, and divisive. Dean's only regret was that he should have used a "different euphemism" instead of the highly charge "even-handed."

Every first-time presidential candidate -- many of whom get elected -- has a stumble or two making the transition from the relative quiet of supporters' living rooms to the brightly lit stage where every word gets examined. One of the legitimate tests of a candidacy, especially one with early promise or success, is how well it handles the inevitable bumps.

Dean is starting to show more hubris than humility in this atmosphere. One or two incidents probably don't matter, but he's flirting with critical mass.

The dangers of "Smith later explained" first became apparent in the media age in the pre-campaign of 1967, when the front-running Republican governor of Michigan (the late George Romney) went to Vietnam at the dawn of the credibility gap and said he'd been brainwashed -- before realizing that presidents shouldn't take office in that condition.

Romney spent weeks trying to say what he really meant, to the point that "Romney later explained" became part of his identity.

Romney was an affable peach of a guy, but his seemingly inevitable nomination prospects sank like a stone.

This is a rough game, but if Dean thinks the last two weeks have been rough he hasn't seen anything yet.

boston.com



To: JohnM who wrote (8106)9/16/2003 6:22:56 AM
From: LindyBill  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 793790
 
Ship me somewhere East of Suez
Where the best is like the worst,
Where there ain't no Ten Commandments,
and a man can raise a thirst


The Iran Conspiracy
By H. D. S. Greenway
All the Shah's Men: An American Coup and the Roots of Middle East Terror
by Stephen Kinzer - New York Review of Books
Wiley, 258 pp., $24.95

In August of 1976, while working as a reporter for The Washington Post, I found myself in Tehran during what would turn out to be the final years of the Iranian monarchy. It was clear then that Mohammad Reza Shah, only the second and the last of the Pahlavi dynasty, was in difficulty. His so-called "White Revolution," which tried to modernize Iran quickly, was meeting resistance from a deeply conservative public. Religious leaders, secular democrats, and students were restless under his monarchical dictatorship. His secret police, the Savak, were jailing and torturing dissidents. What was not clear then was that the ally the US had installed in order to hold power in the Persian Gulf was about to collapse. It happened so quickly that even the forces that brought the Shah down were taken by surprise.

For a quarter of a century after the Americans and British organized a coup against the secular-nationalist leader Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953, the Shah had been America's man in the Persian Gulf, which American leaders saw as strategically vital because it produces the one essential commodity for the industrial world. In 1973, when Saudi Arabia embargoed oil to the United States, it was the Shah who supplied fuel for US Navy ships then in the Gulf. During the Nixon years the Shah was cast in the role of America's surrogate and partner in preserving Western, anti-Soviet interests in the region; he received large amounts of advanced military equipment from the US. In 1976 you could fly on El Al directly from Tel Aviv to Tehran. Until the clerics came to power in 1979, both Iran and Israel found it useful to have informal diplomatic relations because both felt threatened by Iraq. As it still does, Israel sought friends among the non-Arab countries on the periphery of the Middle East.

Now another quarter-century has passed, a very grim one for Iran as well as Western interests in the Gulf. The takeover of the American embassy in 1979 and the 444-day humiliation of American diplomats ruined relations with the United States to this day. The advent of a religiously based regime, equally or more tyrannical than the Shah's, has changed the pattern of power in the Middle East. The regime of the ayatollahs has supported Hezbollah and other terrorists in the region, and it is accused of harboring members of al-Qaeda, which it denies.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

This year is the fiftieth anniversary of the coup that deposed Mossadegh and the forces allied with him struggling to create a democracy in Iran. The coup set the Shah on a course that was to end so ignobly for him and the United States twenty-six years later. According to Stephen Kinzer in his book All the Shah's Men: An American Coup and the Roots of Middle East Terror,

It is not far-fetched to draw a line from Operation Ajax [the CIA's code name for the coup] through the Shah's repressive regime and the Islamic Revolution to the fireballs that engulfed the World Trade Center in New York.
Kinzer also says that the coup against Mossadegh, the first time that the CIA had brought about a change of regime, emboldened the US to overthrow Guatemala's Jacobo Arbenz,

and set off a sequence of events in that country that led to civil war and hundreds of thousands of violent deaths. Later, the CIA set out to kill or depose foreign leaders from Cuba and Chile to the Congo and Vietnam. Each of these operations had profound effects that reverberate to this day. Some produced immense misery and suffering and turned whole regions of the world bitterly against the United States.
Using new and published material, Kinzer has written a convincing account of the US conspiracy in Tehran during the summer of 1953, events so melodramatic that President Eisenhower, when he was briefed on the coup, wrote in his diary that they "seemed more like a dime novel than historical facts." In the 1970s, when Richard Helms, former head of the CIA, was ambassador to Iran, he recalled that the Russian ambassador complained about him to the Shah. How, he asked, could the Shah accept a man of Helms's background in secret intelligence as ambassador? The Shah, Helms told me, replied: "Well, at least I know that Americans have sent me their top spy." Helms would later write in his memoirs that he had gotten along with the Shah because "the Shah had always been well impressed by the quality of the CIA people he had met through the years."[1]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Undoubtedly the first CIA man that impressed him was Kermit Roosevelt, "Kim" to his friends, a grandson of Theodore, and a graduate of Groton and Harvard, who was recruited from college for the wartime Office of Strategic Services by Frank Wisner, who went on to become a high CIA official. By 1953 Roosevelt was in charge of Middle East operations for Wisner. As Kinzer writes, Roosevelt was dispatched to bring down Prime Minister Mossadegh, whom the Shah hated because he saw Mossadegh as a threat to his throne—although the Shah had appointed Mossadegh prime minister after he had become widely popular for leading the movement to nationalize the British oil company. The British, for their part, hated Mossadegh for having done just that. The Americans opposed him because they believed he would open the way for Communist domination of Iran. Roosevelt was smuggled into the Shah's palace in the summer of 1953 under a rug in the back seat of a car to meet a monarch who was at that time weak, vacillating, and a very frightened young man.

The first coup attempt organized by the CIA and the British failed. Following the CIA's advice, the chief of the royal guards brought a formal notice of dismissal to Mossadegh's house, only to be arrested by Mossadegh's own loyal guards. The Shah fled abroad, people came into the streets to support Mossadegh, and Roosevelt's bosses back in Washington ordered him to leave Iran. But Roosevelt decided to have another try. He arranged for a mob of demonstrators to fill the streets in protest against Mossadegh's government. Among them were army officers and some of the grand ayatollahs, who had been paid by Roosevelt. The demonstrators reached Mossadegh's house and stormed in after a fight with his guards. Mossadegh took refuge with a neighbor, but surrendered the next day. The Shah returned from Italy in triumph to tell Roosevelt: "I owe my throne to God, my people, my army—and to you!" It was, as Helms would later write, "the high tide of covert action." Put on trial for treason, Mossadegh denounced foreign conspiracies against him; after three years in prison he was put under house arrest until he died in 1967.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mossadegh was a unique figure in the history of the twentieth century. With a huge nose and "basset-hound eyes," he was aristocratic and imposing —his father had been a minister in the court of a former king and he had been educated in France and Switzerland. He was a nationalist who vehemently and uncompromisingly opposed British petroleum concessions in his country. By force of personality, Mossadegh shoulders everyone else aside in Kinzer's narrative. (He was Time magazine's Man of the Year in 1951.)

Kinzer quotes Averell Harriman's impressions of Mossadegh:

He projected helplessness; and while he was obviously as much a captive as a leader of the nationalist fanatics, he relented on nothing. Under pressure he would take to his bed, seeming at times to have only a tenuous hold on life itself as he lay in his pink pajamas, his hands folded on his chest, eyes fluttering and breath shallow. At the appropriate moment, though, he could transform himself from a frail, decrepit shell of a man into a wily, vigorous adversary.
Mossadegh had real illnesses—Kinzer is vague about what they were—but he knew how to use them in the political theater he created, driving his foes and some would-be friends to distraction. Winston Churchill, who had much to do with Mossadegh's fall, called the Iranian leader "an elderly lunatic bent on wrecking his country and handing it over to the Communists." But Churchill was steeped in the importance of the British Empire, and had trouble adjusting to third-world nationalists.

When he was put on trial, Mossadegh said: "My only crime is that I nationalized the Iranian oil industry and removed from this land the network of colonialism and the political and economic influence of the greatest empire on earth." He meant the British, not the US, and he was largely right. Oil had been of paramount importance to Britain ever since the Royal Navy switched from coal in the early years of the century. Lord Curzon said that in World War I the Allies had "floated to victory on a wave of oil," and in World War II Britain was even more dependent on oil. The postwar British government, under Prime Minister Clement Attlee, was opposed to sharing control with Iran of the Anglo-Persian, later Anglo-Iranian, Oil Company. Iran in those days was the world's fourth-biggest oil exporter, supplying Europe with 90 percent of its petroleum. The British were unwilling to make any compromise with the nationalist feelings of Iranians. They would not even consider sharing oil revenues equally as the Americans were doing in Saudi Arabia.

In the early 1950s Britain was not content with being a second-tier country as it is today; it still sought to maintain itself not only as a world force but as a colonial power. Anglo-Iranian oil was 51 percent owned by the British government, and a great share of the profits went straight into the British Treasury. Foreign Secretary Ernest Bevin was frank in saying that without Iran's oil there would be no "hope of our being able to achieve the standard of living at which we are aiming in Great Britain." But more than money was at stake. The British had built the Iranian oil industry from nothing and they believed it was theirs to control.

Mossadegh said they could not. A more practical politician, Kinzer writes, might have struck a deal. "But Mossadegh," he writes,

was not a pragmatist. He was a visionary, a utopian, a millenarian. The single-mindedness with which he pursued his campaign against Anglo-Iranian made it impossible for him to compromise when he could and should have.
Kinzer adds that Mossadegh's attitude fitted in with Iran's Shiite Muslim faith, with its traditions of martyrdom; he was willing, even eager, to accept pain for a cause.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Americans were caught in the middle. On the one hand Truman thought the British attitude was "block-headed," and against their own interests. As Secretary of State Dean Acheson put it, paraphrasing Churchill's famous remark about the Battle of Britain: "Never had so few lost so much so stupidly and so fast." For although the British blustered, threatened invasion, and sent warships to intimidate him, Mossadegh went ahead and nationalized the oil and threw the British out. The British countered by blocking Iran's exports of oil, so Iran's economy spiraled down as did Britain's.

America's ambassador to Tehran, Henry Grady, cabled Washington that "the British...seem to be determined to follow the old tactics of getting the government out with which it has difficulties. Mossadegh has the backing of 95 to 98 percent of the people of this country. It is utter folly to push him out." Truman and Acheson agreed.

In the current age of American unilateralism and preemptive military interventions, it is hard to remember that just after World War II America still stood for something quite different in the Middle East. Although the US emerged from the war as "the leader of the free world," the British, French, Dutch, and Portuguese still ruled over vast empires. To many colonized people the United States was identified with Wilsonian idealism and anticolonialism. Franklin Roosevelt several times changed his mind about whether or not the French should re-occupy Indochina after World War II. American agents of the OSS had met with Ho Chi Minh in his forest hideouts.

In the nineteenth century, Americans had come to the Middle East not as conquerors and colonial administrators but as educators, often Presbyterian, who sought not to convert but to give help. Institutions such as Roberts College in Istanbul, American University of Beirut, and American University in Cairo educated the sons of the Middle Eastern elites. In Iran the American-founded Alborz College was, Kinzer writes, "among the first modern secondary schools in the country, and thousands of its graduates went on to shape Iranian life."

In the early 1950s Stephen Penrose, a president of American University of Beirut, wrote:

Until recently American enterprise in the Middle East has been almost entirely non-governmental, an important difference from most other national patterns. Americans have never been seen as colonizers or subjugators and it is hard even now for most Arabs to conceive of them as such.[2]
Kinzer writes that the few Americans that Iranians "had come to know were generous and self-sacrificing, interested not in wealth or power but in helping Iran."

All of this changed in the 1950s, when America supplanted Britain as the guarantor of "stability" in the Persian Gulf. "Americans were indeed latecomers to the Middle East," Kinzer writes. "The British scorned them as inexperienced and naive. To a degree they were. They were instinctively repelled by Britain's colonial arrogance, especially in Iran, but they did not have enough self-confidence to act decisively on their own."

The CIA was still, early in 1953, a junior partner of the more experienced British Secret Intelligence Service (SIS), or MI6. But the Mossadegh coup marked the end of British dominance in secret intelligence matters. The transition from junior to senior partner was described by the CIA's Donald Wilber, who wrote that it

quickly became apparent that the SIS was perfectly content to follow whatever lead was taken by the Agency.... The British were very pleased at having obtained the active cooperation of the Agency and were determined to do nothing which might jeopardize US participation. At the same time there was faint envy expressed over the fact that the Agency was better equipped in the way of funds, personnel and facilities than was SIS.
Britain had begun to see itself as Greece to America's Rome—more cultured, experienced, and wily, but recognizing where real power now lay.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In 1946, the Philippines, America's only Asian colony, became independent. By the 1950s US policy was divided in its approach to third-world nationalism in the former colonies of Britain and France. Harry Truman backed some nationalist movements, hoping they would view the United States as their true benefactor rather than the Soviet Union. But the US by the late Forties supported the French in Indochina, spending more on the French military effort there than on the Marshall Plan in France itself. The US was also concerned to protect British interests in the Persian Gulf.

In 1954 Eisenhower refused to stave off a French defeat at Dien Bien Phu, and two years later his secretary of state, John Foster Dulles, told the British, French, and Israelis that their attempt to bring down Nasser by seizing the Suez Canal had no American backing, which forced their withdrawal. But with the Korean War still being fought in 1953, and Eisenhower new to his office, the British view of Iran as vulnerable to Soviet pressure carried the day.

The war in Korea changed America's outlook and policies as surely as did the attack on September 11 in the current administration. The invasion from the north came in June of 1950, and convinced the United States that the Western nightmare of expanding, militant communism was coming true. The Korean War coincided with the growing crisis over Iran's nationalization of its oil industry, and had the effect of narrowing Washington's differences with the British at Iran's expense. Korea played into the American decision to reverse its early opposition to an anti-Mossadegh coup. Coincidentally, the Korean War ended in July 1953, while Roosevelt was plotting his coup.

The Truman administration had resisted any attempt to depose Mossadegh, still believing that, as a secular liberal with the support of his people, he would be a stronger force against communism than a pro-British stooge. Truman and Acheson again and again encouraged Mossadegh to compromise with the British, only to fail.

Kinzer quotes The New York Times saying that "many Middle East specialists considered Mossadegh a liberator comparable to Thomas Jefferson or Thomas Paine." By contrast the usually liberal Observer of London described Mossadegh as a "Robespierre fanatic" and a "tragic Frankenstein... obsessed with one xenophobic idea," i.e., kicking the British out of the Iranian oil business.

In 1951, while Mossadegh was visiting Washington, the Americans made one last attempt to get him to compromise. When they pointed out to him that he would return home empty-handed, he replied: "Don't you realize that in returning to Iran empty-handed, I return in a much stronger position than if I returned with an agreement which I would have to sell to my fanatics?" Mossadegh's reply was as frustrating for Americans then as Yasser Arafat's refusal to compromise with President Clinton and the Israelis was in 2000. But Arafat seems to have had similar sentiments. What seems obvious in the Western world is seldom what seems obvious east of Suez.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The election of Winston Churchill over Clement Attlee in 1952 was fatal for Mossadegh; so was the replacement of Truman and Acheson by Dwight Eisenhower and the Dulles brothers, John Foster Dulles at the State Department, and Allen Dulles at the CIA. Churchill charged that Attlee had "scuttled and run" from Iran "when a splutter of musketry would have ended the matter." Ike was a little more reluctant to intervene in Iran, but Churchill made much of the Communist threat, also reminding Eisenhower that he owed Britain a favor because the British had sent troops to Korea. Churchill's dogmatic convictions about Iran would be echoed half a century later by Tony Blair's certainties about the danger from Iraq.

In Kinzer's account of the coup, the eager Dulles brothers get authorization for a coup from Eisenhower, who didn't want to know the details. In his own book, Richard Helms wrote:

In a very short time, and in my view with perhaps too little reflection, covert action had become a favored instrument. Diplomacy had its uses, but in those years the impatient Eisenhower administration had convinced itself that even the most effective diplomacy took too much time and the result was often uncertain.
The US policy toward Iran of the Truman years was reversed.

The parallels between the views of today's conservatives in the administration of George W. Bush and those of the Dulles brothers are all too clear. Helms called the covert action favored by the Dulleses a "foreign policy panacea." Neoconservatives in the current Bush administration see "regime change" in much the same way. One big difference is that during the cold war, America sought allies in its confrontation with the Soviet Union, while today, with the Soviet Union gone, the neoconservatives who dominate policy seem contemptuous of allies.

To me the single most revealing quote in Kinzer's story comes when John Foster Dulles is explaining to a reluctant Ike why the US needs to intervene in Iran. His words, as reported by the official note-taker, were:

The probable consequences [of doing nothing]...would be a dictatorship in Iran under Mossadegh. As long as the latter lives there was little danger, but if he were to be assassinated or removed from power, a political vacuum would occur in Iran and the Communists might easily take over. [emphasis added]
In short, Mossadegh himself was not the problem. But he had to go be-cause of what might happen if Communists succeeded him. That Mossadegh was a popular nationalist who resisted Western tutelage didn't help. The Bush doctrine of preemption—waging preventive wars because of possible threats, not actual ones—is hardly new.

The coup itself, as Kinzer acknowledges, was originally planned by the British SIS. Some British readers will say Kinzer gives the CIA too big a role. The British conceived of a rent-a-crowd strategy, by which they could hire gangs of thugs as provocateurs assigned to stir up people at state rallies. They could find people who would demonstrate for Mossadegh and then find others to demonstrate against him. The aim was to create chaos so that the military could step in to restore order. But Mossadegh expelled the British, who then turned over their Iranian agents to the CIA. Mossadegh still continued to trust the Americans, not realizing the change that had come with the new Republican administration. Kermit Roosevelt played the cards the British had dealt him brilliantly, and the second coup was all his doing.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Was it worth it? Kermit Roosevelt remained convinced that it was until he died in 2000. Kinzer quotes a different view from his British counterpart, Christopher "Monty" Woodhouse, who wrote in his own memoirs: "It is easy to see Operation Boot," the British name for Ajax,

as the first step towards the Iranian catastrophe of 1979. What we did not foresee was that the Shah would gather new strength and use it so tyrannically, nor that the US government and the Foreign Office would fail so abjectly to keep him on a reasonable course. At the time we were simply relieved that a threat to British interests had been removed.
For the British it was enough that they would regain some control of Iran's oil.

For Churchill it was about oil. For Eisenhower, it was about communism. "It was a question of much bigger policy than Iran," one of the last surviving members of Operation Ajax, John Waller, told Kinzer.

It was about what the Soviets had done and what we knew about their future plans. It's interesting to see what Russia put on its priority list, what it wanted. Iran was very high on it. If anybody wasn't worried about the Soviet menace, I don't know what they could have been believing in. It was a real thing.
In fact, what the Soviets were think-ing at the time has never been revealed. Kinzer tells us that his repeated requests for archival information on that period have not been granted by the Russians. But neither Waller nor anyone else Kinzer talked to was able to make a case that a Mossadegh regime would have increased Soviet power, only that it might have.

Toward the end of his excellent book, Kinzer cites historians who argued that the coup "bought the United States and the West a reliable Iran for twenty-five years." He concludes:

That was an undoubted triumph. But in view of what came later, and the culture of covert action that seized hold of the American body politic in the coup's wake, the triumph seems much tarnished. From the seething streets of Tehran and other Islamic capitals to the scenes of terror attacks around the world, Operation Ajax has left a haunting and terrible legacy.
Certainly the coup was remembered by the Iranian hostage takers of 1979. Iran's current supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has justified the regime's radicalism by saying: "We are not liberals like Allende and Mossadegh, whom the CIA can snuff out." But the more telling quote comes from Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who all along opposed Mossadegh and finally replaced the Shah. He said: "Why do you talk of the Shah, Mossadegh, money? These have already passed. Islam is all that remains."

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Islamic revival is the most potent political force in the Middle East today, transcending the divide between Shiite and Sunni Muslims. It seems to me likely that a movement of this magnitude would have occurred, and was occurring, anyway without the help of an Anglo-American coup. In Kinzer's cautionary tale of unintended consequences, it is hard to find a clear link between the coup against the nationalistic Mossadegh and the destruction of the World Trade Center towers.

Today, fifty summers later, the younger generation in Iran has become fed up with the heavy-handed theocratic regime it has endured since 1979. Will the United States allow changes to occur without interference? Or will modern counterparts of the Dulleses, impatient with diplomacy, plot new covert actions and attempt to force regime change as their panacea for foreign policy? In June, Secretary of State Colin Powell, speaking to an international meeting in the Middle East, went out of his way to dismiss any suggestions that the US would take hostile action against Iran. But as he spoke some in the Pentagon were talking about covert action against Iran. "Bush Pressed to Pursue 'Regime Change' in Iran," ran a June headline in the Financial Times.

In many ways America's obsession with terrorism since September 11 is an echo of its obsession with communism fifty years ago. Today the United States and Britain claim they must occupy Iraq because of the threat of terrorism. Officially, both say they want to get out as soon as possible; but ideologues in the Pentagon dream of Iraq advancing America's interests, and Israel's too, in the Persian Gulf as the Shah once did. Talk of a new American imperialism is becoming fashionable among conservative academics, some of them in power. They forget the lesson of British experience, which is that when a people will no longer accept it, foreign domination is almost impossible to maintain. Kinzer begins his book with an apt quote from President Truman: "There is nothing new in the world except the history you do not know."

nybooks.com



To: JohnM who wrote (8106)9/16/2003 6:46:58 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793790
 
Here we go with the New York City Teacher's Union. I had been expecting this. What is really going on is buried in the body of the story.

September 16, 2003
Teachers Barter With Work Rules
By DAVID M. HERSZENHORN - NEW YORK TIMES


New York City's teachers' union will propose a wide-ranging experiment to do away with the bulk of the work rules that have long enraged city officials in exchange for getting teachers a greater say in how individual schools are run, the union president, Randi Weingarten, said yesterday.

The proposal, intended for perhaps 100 schools or more, would discard rules that govern everything from the length of classes to the amount of teacher preparation time. Principals could then negotiate pared-down work agreements with their staffs, which teachers would approve.

"What if you had trust, fairness and collaboration substitute for lock-step rules?" Ms. Weingarten said in an interview. "Except for things like salaries, pensions, medical, safety, due process and things covered by law, maybe virtually everything else should be negotiable."

By discussing her proposal ahead of contract talks scheduled to start tomorrow, Ms. Weingarten appeared to be maneuvering to pre-empt demands for concessions on the work rules by Schools Chancellor Joel I. Klein and to extend a peace offering after months of acrimony.

Mr. Klein reacted positively yesterday. In fact, he quickly pushed to broaden the plan, calling for the elimination of work rules systemwide. "We believe the burden of the current contract should be lifted from all our schools," said Peter Kerr, a spokesman for Mr. Klein.

The union's proposal signaled that the coming contract talks are likely to focus more on working conditions and management structures than on salary increases, which will be hard to achieve given the weak economy and the large raises the union won last year in exchange for a 100-minute increase in the workweek.

That agreement, reached in June 2002, provided for raises of between 16 percent and 22 percent over 30 months, but it was mostly retroactive, and the contract expired on May 31.

Ms. Weingarten and many of her members are angry that Mr. Klein has not given teachers a larger role in his sweeping effort to overhaul the school system, and yesterday she described her plan to eliminate work rules as a way to get teachers the professional respect they deserve.

"We want to have real school-based professional latitude and decision-making," she said.

The talks between the city and the United Federation of Teachers are set to start at a low point in municipal labor relations. Contracts for all but 7,500 of the city's 286,000 employees have expired and Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg has taken a tough stance, demanding concessions to pay for any raises.

Any negotiating by the teachers' union is complicated by Ms. Weingarten's added role as chairwoman of the Municipal Labor Committee, with obligations not only to the 80,000 teachers and 27,000 other active members of the teachers' federation, but also to other labor groups.

Ms. Weingarten's plan reflects the thinking of national leaders of teachers' unions. In a speech in 1999, Sandra Feldman, Ms. Weingarten's predecessor at the United Federation of Teachers and now president of the American Federation of Teachers, urged local unions to move away from contracts laden with work rules in favor of streamlined or "thin" contracts tailored to individual schools in exchange for giving teachers a larger voice in the management of schools.

But large school districts have made little progress in this direction. In Boston, for example, officials largely failed in contract negotiations three years ago to curtail seniority rules that they said hindered hiring and staffing decisions.

In New York City, however, the teachers' federation has its own small example of a thin contract — an agreement that it reached between teachers and the board at the Amber Charter School on East 106th Street in Manhattan. The entire contract is six pages, including salary steps and a no-strike clause. That compares with more than 200 pages in the general teachers' contract.

Ms. Weingarten said her proposal was modeled after a provision that already exists in the contract for "school-based option," which allows a school's union chapter and principal to modify rules on class size, teacher assignments and schedules, provided that 55 percent of the staff votes for the change.

In these cases, the staff chooses to form school-based management teams, made up of teachers, administrators and parents, and develop policies with the principal. Ms. Weingarten said she envisioned a similar "steering committee" in any school developing its own work rules.

Among the rules that could change is one that excuses teachers from supervising lunch and from other chores outside the classroom.

Flexibility on the rules would also allow creative scheduling of class time, perhaps making it easier to accommodate the double-blocks of English and math required by the city's new uniform curriculums.

Ms. Weingarten said that the work-rule experiment should be limited perhaps to one of the new 10 instructional regions, which contain about 75 to 150 schools. "You want to do something that could work instead of having something that's so big that it's doomed by it's size," she said, taking a not-so-subtle jab at Mr. Klein's citywide overhaul.

Mr. Kerr, the chancellor's spokesman, called Ms. Weingarten's inclination to limit the plan "strangely and uncharacteristically timid."

Education experts said that the work rules can hinder the effective operation of schools, but that over the years had proven to be a scapegoat for officials who failed to improve the system.

"It imposes constraints in how you can organize, schedule and operate schools," Thomas Sobol, a former New York State education commissioner, said of the contract. "And it has been an excuse for not doing anything."

Dr. Sobol, now a professor at Columbia University's Teachers College, said he supported ending the rules. "That sounds so enlightened it puts me on my guard," he said.

Anthony P. Coles, a deputy mayor under Rudolph W. Giuliani, applauded the idea of eliminating work rules.

"The teachers' contract has some very antiquated, very restrictive rules that inhibit the education of children," Mr. Coles said. "Wouldn't it be great if parents could look at the contract and say, `I understand why that provision is in there.' It seems to me a plain English union contract ought to be a goal."

nytimes.com



To: JohnM who wrote (8106)9/16/2003 9:41:51 AM
From: LindyBill  Respond to of 793790
 
Bottom of the Ninth
Federal court reclaims its title.

By Robert Alt
— Robert Alt is a fellow in constitutional studies and jurisprudence at the John M. Ashbrook Center, and is a frequent election-law contributor to NRO.


In the pantheon of liberal jurisprudence, there are few courts that can hold a candle to the Florida supreme court, which, during the fateful 2000 election, acted as if it was uniquely empowered to rewrite Florida election law from the bench. There is one court, however, that will not give up its title as the most-liberal and most-reversed court in the country so easily. Such titles must be earned over time, and this court, which has worked long and hard to truly deserve this title, will not be supplanted by such a relative newcomer. I am speaking, of course, of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals — a court which Monday issued a temporary injunction postponing California's recall election based on a clear misapplication of the U.S. Supreme Court's Bush v. Gore decision.

Court watchers were not surprised by this outcome. The day that the panel of judges selected to hear this case was announced, many on both the left and the right believed the decision was foregone. After all, the panel includes Judge Pregerson, who, following the Supreme Court's decision upholding California's three-strikes law, issued a series of dissents stating that he cannot apply the three-strikes law in good conscience. Judge Pregerson makes no attempt to distinguish the cases in which he dissents from the case decided in a contrary fashion by the United States Supreme Court. He does not even attempt to apply a legal rationale for his dissent. Rather, he asserts his own will in place of the legislature which wrote the law, and the United States Supreme Court, which declared that specific law to be constitutional.

Then there is Judge Thomas, who gained notoriety recently for authoring the decision which, by applying a procedural rule retroactively, has the potential to overturn more than 100 capital cases. Judge Thomas issued this decision despite the fact that every other circuit (including, ironically, the Ninth Circuit) had previously found that the principle of law that he on relies does not apply retroactively.

Finally there is Judge Paez, who referred to California's Proposition 209 — a popularly enacted civil-rights initiative which prohibited the use of race as a factor in admissions to state universities — as an "anti-civil rights initiative." Conveniently, the question presented to the court of the whether election may go forward in October affects not only the recall, but the Racial Privacy Initiative sponsored by Ward Connerly. As luck would have it, Mr. Connerly was also the sponsor of Paez's favorite: Prop. 209.

Now that you know a little about the panel, on to the case itself, which was brought by a gaggle of activist groups which respectively claimed that the U.S. Constitution's Equal Protection clause is offended by the fact that 44 percent of the counties use punchcard ballots, while the remainder of the counties use optical-scan ballots or variants of touchscreen balloting. But my description lacks a certain panache. As the Ninth Circuit put it, "Plaintiffs allege that the fundamental right to have votes counted in the special recall election is infringed because the pre-scored punchcard voting systems used in some California counties are intractably afflicted with technologic dyscalculia." Well that clears it right up. Putting this through the gibberish translator, the plaintiffs claim that the state may not use punchcards because the punchcard system of balloting is not as accurate in conveying votes as other, newer methods.

In analyzing this claim, the Ninth Circuit conceded that no voting system is foolproof, and that the Constitution does not demand the best-available technology. So far, so good. Indeed, a brief examination (not performed by the Ninth Circuit, mind you) shows that the optical-scan method, which utilizes bubbles filled in with No. 2 pencils, is subject to miscounts from double feeds just like the punchcard system; like a feeder on a copy machine, the reader may grab more than one ballot at a time, in which case it will only count the top ballot. The optical-scan system also will not count bubbles that are not filled in properly, and may not count votes where there are stray marks on the ballot. Thus, instead of dimpled chads, you can have lightly shaded bubbles, smeared bubbles, partial bubbles, and "x"-marked bubbles — all of which would potentially be ignored by the machine.

The new touchscreen voting systems are also subject to their own unique set of problems. First, touchscreens have proved to be slower to operate than other traditional balloting systems, leading to long lines at the polling places. For those who fail to see the potential for problems with lines, it is worth noting that proponents of suspending the election argued that the punchcards would lead to long lines, rushed voters, and therefore an increase in voter error. Touchscreens are also subject to mechanical failures, and, unlike "paper" methods, may permanently lose data. All this is to say that no voting system is perfect.

Despite the sensible concession that no voting system is foolproof, the court offers the incredible claim that "[p]laintiff's claim presents almost precisely the same issue as the Court considered in Bush [v. Gore], that is, whether unequal methods of counting votes among counties constitutes a violation of the Equal Protection Clause."

It is therefore worth pausing here to reexamine Bush v. Gore. Bush v. Gore was not about the use of punchcard ballots, even though Florida counties, like California, used both punchcards and optical-scan ballots. Rather, the Equal Protection claim in Bush v. Gore concerned the way in which the recount was implemented. The Court made clear that different counties could use different systems for carrying out elections, but they could not treat similar ballots differently:

The question before the Court is not whether local entities, in the exercise of their expertise, may develop different systems for implementing elections. Instead, we are presented with a situation where a state court with the power to assure uniformity has ordered a statewide recount with minimal procedural safeguards.

Put simply, the Bush v. Gore ruling was not based on the fact that the counties used different voting systems. Rather, the Equal Protection claim rested on the fact that the Florida supreme court had forced a recall without providing safeguards — a brash act which led to similar punchcard ballots being counted differently even within the same county. It was this act of treating similar ballots differently which triggered the Equal Protection violation, not the fact that punchcards were used in one place and not in others.

Proponents of the Ninth Circuit's opinion will inevitably argue that the principle is the same — i.e., that voters are being treated differently from county-to-county. This fails to recognize that, while subject to error, the punchcard system is not so unreliable or "different" compared to other systems that it threatens the right to vote, or substantially dilutes votes from county-to-county. By contrast, Florida's different and changing standards concerning how much chad must be removed from similar punchcards for a ballot to qualify as a vote did undermine the rudimentary requirements of equal treatment.

This subtle distinction was lost on the Ninth Circuit, which boldly held that "the effect of using punchcard voting systems in some, but not all, counties, is to discriminate on the basis of geographic residence." While the Left Coast court attempted to limit the reach of its result, it is hard to see how this reasoning does not create a series of ever-increasing obligations for the states. After all, the most guidance the court gives is to say that the punchcard system creates an error rate that is statistically significant — something which could likely be said about optical scan ballots as compared to next generation touchscreens. Under the Ninth Circuit's approach, higher error rates are not constitutionally acceptable, and therefore a state would seem to be forced to invest in the newest-possible voting technologies to avoid uncounted votes.

Aside from the obvious cost and the dubious constitutional jurisprudence behind such a decision, it is easy enough to see how quickly the Ninth Circuit's reasoning leads to absurd results. For example, it is difficult to see how hand recounts can ever be permissible under the Ninth Circuit's Equal Protection standard, given that hand counts tend to be among the least accurate means of vote tabulation. Furthermore, as a practical matter, states will be forced to take an all-or-nothing approach to implementing technology for fear that using a new voting device in one county will open the state to suit. This will have the unintended consequence of delaying the implementation of more-accurate voting technologies until the state can afford across the board upgrades.

Given the Ninth Circuit's bold move, the ball is now before the United States Supreme Court. The justices have been reluctant to revisit Bush v. Gore after the firestorm of criticism which followed that opinion. ( I still wonder: Where is the criticism for the Florida supreme court, whose erroneous decisions forced seven U.S. Supreme Court justices to find constitutional violations with their mandated recount system?) While the Court has successfully avoided other ballot questions, <a href=http://www.nationalreview.com/comment/comment-alt100402.asp>like Lautenberg's replacement of Torricelli on the ballot in New Jersey</A>, it does not have that luxury in this case. Here, the Ninth Circuit has relied squarely on Bush v. Gore, and has applied it in such as way as to create a precedent which casts doubt on established voting systems throughout the country. Should this case gain traction in other courts, no state or municipality would be able to hold an election for any position from president to dog catcher with punchcard ballots. While the U.S. Supreme Court will loathe the prospect of revisiting Bush v. Gore, the Ninth Circuit, by reclaiming its rightful title from Florida's supreme court, has made such a visit necessary.

nationalreview.com