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To: Montana Wildhack who wrote (12899)9/17/2003 12:56:35 AM
From: axial  Respond to of 14101
 
Wolf, what I really like to do is take this first 6 month's figures and project them on a US market - a market with direct-to-consumer advertising.

Or maybe I'd rather speculate about the impact of these figures on RK's bargaining position with JnJ - or any other potential US distributor - and the upfront attainable.

Perhaps extrapolating the impact of strong revenues on the requirements for the next financing is the thing to do.

Actually, those aren't things I really like to do.

But I like not wondering if DMX will survive.

We have a viable entity here.

The bridge to the future is built. The goals are attainable. RK's go-it-alone strategy will pay off. We'll see WF10 brought to the world.

All things have become possible.

Pennsaid revenues will make a vital contribution to achieving other goals.

Pennsaid revenues will be a phenomenon in themselves.

You were right.

Jim



To: Montana Wildhack who wrote (12899)9/17/2003 2:28:32 AM
From: Cal Gary  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14101
 
Wolf

How about this:

Let's take into account your:
It's possible to break that number down further given the
50% growth that the opined 6300 represented. That would
be 42. I mean 4200

It simply means less 2003 fiscal Pennsaid revenue from Canada and more Pennsaid scripts in Q1 2004 or 13,537 scripts.

I disagree with the 13,000+ answers.

* - this is the same methodology being used here and on SH.


How would you then calculate Q1 scripts?

Now to the "Puzzle":

2003 OXO annual Rev contribution = $316,000 usd
Cumm 9mo 2003 European sales = $35,000 usd

Therefore
Q4 European sales component = $281,000 usd
($281,000 usd = $316,000 - $35,000)
This assumes no European Pennsaid sales in 2003 up to this point, but takes care of the entire OXO contribution.

Italian Pennsaid has to be European Rev.

Q4 2003 Rev = $658,000 usd
Less Q4 OXO Rev of $281,000 usd
Less Q4 Cdn Pennsaid Rev of $77,000 usd
Equals Q4 European Pennsaid Rev of $300,000 usd

(using the 2,800 scripts x $38 = $106,400 cdn
divided by 1.38 = about $77,000 usd)

In my calculations, I do not have any non-Italian European Pennsiad sales. Therefore I can conclude maximum Italian Pennsaid sale is $300,000 usd at the very top end.

If I allow for non-Italian European Pennsaid sales, then I denote this as $uk usd. $uk cannot be larger than $300,000 usd, the cap.

Then Italian Pennsaid sales = $300,000 usd - $uk usd

Have a good evening.