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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (11634)	9/17/2003 10:40:58 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95596

Sarmad, Based on the data, I would expect a "down day" tomorrow, but lately nothing seems to keep the market down. It is like a "punch drunk" fighter who keeps getting body blows, drops to one knee while the referee brushes off his gloves, and says - "you're just fine, nothing wrong with you, get up and go back at it again! So the guy gets up - goes back at it again, just like nothing happened. And you know why he does it? - cause he's looking way out there in the future and says, "this is crummy", but just wait, gimme a year or 2 and I'll show everybody what I can do! I'm just having a little trouble getting started that's all!:) Not only was the BtB data poor for this month(0.91), but they lowered the order input number for July substantially, bringing the posted number from 0.97 back to 0.90. Right now, orders are "bouncing along" the bottom - who knows when they will pick up? Most pundits have given up on 2003, but they are predicting great things for 2004 and 2005. Me, I've been had so often by these market gurus, I'm waiting until I see the "whites of their eyes" before I believe anything right now. Gottfried will have the data plotted soon I am sure, and it will show a further extension of "going nowhere" fast. We are in a different mode now, however, than we have been in the past. The last months data shows that the semi-equips are lagging the SOX, and the SOX is lagging the NASDAQ. The following post shows a table of the results. investorshub.com What it means is the NASDAQ is going up and "dragging" the SOX and semi-equips with it. How long this action will keep up is unknown. As for the job situation, I have my own guess, which is that initial claims will be up somewhat. I don't think it will matter though, the market may fall back a little bit, but like the punch drunk fighter, it will just pull itself back up off the floor and continue onward - after all, there is always next year ahead. Don

To: Sarmad Y. Hermiz who wrote (11634)	9/18/2003 2:01:29 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95596

Sarmad, So much for the poor BtB being a problem. The DOW is presently up 100+ points and the NASDAQ is up 20+ points. Even the SOX is up 2+ points as I write this post. The NASDAQ is above 1900 and looking strong. Shouldn't be long until we hit 2000 - then onward to 2300.:) - and we are only at 18 September. Maybe the sights have have been set too low?:) Here's what Briefing.com had to say in their 12:00 report <12:00 ET Dow +72, Nasdaq +15, S&P +9.33: [BRIEFING.COM] Traders have taken a weak open, and turned it into a solid rally as the market's bullish momentum shows little signs of slowing... A light August semiconductor equipment book-to-bill reading prompted some moderate selling activity at the open, but true to recent form, buyers have come roaring back and sent the indices to progressively higher levels... The source of the mid-morning rally came from a variety of places - short-covering activity stemming from Friday's quadruple witching, for instance- but was most likely the result of the Nasdaq's resilience in the early going... The Composite held above yesterday's low, and its solid posture invited more buying interest as the morning wore on... At this point, the Nasdaq has topped its September/52-week intraday high, due in part to strong gains in telecom equipment, computer hardware, internet, and disk drive... Industry groups within the broader market have also played a crucial role in the market's surge, with brokerage shares pacing the blue chip averages' climb... Bear Stearns (BSC 74.83 +2.36) delivered a stellar Q3 (Aug) report in which EPS more than doubled from year-ago levels and topped the consensus estimate by $0.65... Transportation, defense, and drug have also exhibited relative strength... Finally, today's economic reports have been largely mixed, and have neither contributed/detracted from the day's performance... Initial claims for the week of September 13 dropped 29K, to 399K (consensus of 410K), but continuing claims rose 39K to 3.683 mln... August Leading Indicators matched the consensus estimate of 0.4%, and - just now - the September Philadelphia Fed Index expanded for a fourth month in a row, to 14.6, but missed the consensus estimate of 17.0... NYSE Adv/Dec 2005/1046... Nasdaq Adv/Dec 1809/1135.> Don