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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: austrieconomist who wrote (897)	9/20/2003 11:48:41 AM
From: russwinter	Respond to of 110194

<next 13% move" based upon broad market measures, such as the DJIA. For myself, I don't want to suffer through that kind of loss by being short> With all due respect (and I definitely do respect your views on most things) then, I would suggest sticking with T-Bills and CDs. If you are long (including gold), you could very well suffer much greater losses in short order. Of course that's just my opinion, but I'm making a philosophical point. Although 10% losses are annoying, they are rather minor in the course of things. Are you saying a 10% loss being long is OK, but somehow it's not being short? I can't count how many multi-month 10-15% swings and losses I took over the course of participating in the 500% bull market in gold stocks since 2001. You ought to go back and read my old comments during that period, because the conversations (about capital preservation, etc.) I'm having with you were the same then, often with the same people who are most giddy at PM now. My losses on my short positions (taken on gradually throughout the summer: 5% short starting about May, now over 50%) has been about 10%, somewhat hedged by my energy stocks and with pretty good luck writing naked calls. I was also long some pretty aggressive biotech, defense, and even tech names early on. And I definitely have not just been a perma-bear. I was LEVERAGED long in the late 02 rally. Subject 53273 My growing short position was also hedged out by my gold positions, up about 100% since March. I believe the later to be a more leveraged version of the big liquidity based rally experienced across all asset classes. In aggregate I'm well up from March. This was my start point then. Shortly after this post (and mentioned subsequently on line) was when I added large positions in MNG, WHT, CAU, GBN and IVN.: Message 18675392 That's now run it's course, and that the fallout in most of the stocks I'm using short(retail, tech, financials, various tulip bulbs) will be on the order of 60-70% down. That's worth playing for in my book.