Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: excardog who wrote (25822)	9/20/2003 4:18:16 PM
From: quehubo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206325

Peculiar how $4.50 and something lower is considered low now. Winter NG prices are tracking parity with #2 oil and the lowest prices on the strip are well above residual prices. I estimate a good 300 bcf of gas has been recovered Jan - August with #2 oil operation and NGL retention. Another 200-300 bcf was recovered through pure demand destruction. At even lower prices we have residual fuel switching that has helped recover another 120+ bcf during his period. My guess is that there was allot of hedging and speculation on a hurricane impacting supply. I dont think there is much concern anymore with hurricanes. My guess is that we end the season with less than 900 bcf in storage, it is just a matter of how much NG has ti be recovered through higher prices. If the Winter is mild prices stay below #2 oil prices and above # 6 oil prices. If the Winter is normal some NG supply needs to be recovered. I am fully loaded and I wont be selling, but I am waiting a week or two before going back on margin or deploying some new money.

To: excardog who wrote (25822)	9/20/2003 4:55:10 PM
From: jim_p	Respond to of 206325

Never say never in the oil patch.

To: excardog who wrote (25822)	9/21/2003 12:55:42 AM
From: t4texas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206325

considering your request to be patient and to wait for those injection numbers, i would say that this chart agrees to wait and be patient. this weekly set of trends of the xng says it won't be long until it breaks nice and hard either up or down. it's a long term converging triangle whose original lower leg (the green line)trend line was doing nicely when greenspan spoke and up it went to about the 200 resistance line and could not hack it. it broke down, and has reconstituted a trend that is fast approaching decision-time at both resistance and support. isn't it interesting that such a decision point should occur with the end of shoulder season coming soon! i think it is also interesting that since october the xng has spent almost all its time above its 10 week (about 50 day) ema. that's a good thing, and if the xng breaks to the downside, it will have to break that moving average again. what do you think will happen to ng prices if the price of crude oil keeps coming down to $25 and even breaks to $20? how much impact would that have on ng prices this winter? stockcharts.com[e,a]wacanyay[df][pc10!c50][vc60][iub14!uh14,3!ll14][j17803001,y]&listNum=2