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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Andrew who wrote (1107)	9/27/2003 11:08:32 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

I think energy is also going to play a big role in a smash up. Signs of a cold October: Message 19348136 The commercials are near record long on the natural gas, crude oil complex. Message 19347726 Something's up. The valuation differential between the energy stocks and the whole consumer, tech, financial market is just unbelievable. It's ridiculous, absurd, silly, etc, etc. I notice people like Tice don't own any energy stocks. It's quarter end and it will be interesting to see what he does have. So I'm playing this as a grand arbitrage: long energy stocks and futures (through put writes) and short financials/retailers/tech (FRT). I think even in the rallies, energies will start to continually outperform FRT. I think you will see more days like Wed, where energy rallied, and everything else was crushed. That's what 1980-1981 looked like. I was around then (and a young stockbroker), but like most today was in the wrong stocks, and just watched this unfold. Even bears are overly focused on the wrong thing (at least right now): gold. I notice consensus on gold hit 80% bullish recently (just ignore BCA's conclusion as usual, it's the chart I'm interested in: bcaresearch.com. That froth will get worked off, and I'd like to see that huge spec crowd reduced to well under 100,000 long before I went back into gold waters. futures-research.com And all the underwritings will get worked off in the fourth quarter. I'm not sure if my gold bug friends (and I am a fellow gold bug) realize how volatile these stocks can be. That's easy to lose sight of on the rallies, but people forget the downside. I mean some of my old favorites like WHT, MNG, WTZ, GBN and CAU just were crushed this week. I'm glad I'm not in them (still have half my CAU only).