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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: greenspirit who wrote (115920)	9/29/2003 3:25:36 PM
From: JohnM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Funny, Michael, so I don't have any real evidence in an area I wasn't even talking about. Been drinking too much Italian wine, guy. As for that proposed Iraqi trip, if I were you I would keep that on the backburner at least until the results of the 04 election give the Dems a chance to calm things down over there.

To: greenspirit who wrote (115920)	9/29/2003 5:11:42 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi Michael D. Cummings; Re: "The good news on Iraq just keeps trickling out. Soon we will see feature stories on 60 minutes. Give it another 4 months." You're being rather optimistic. Some reminders from 5 months ago, when it was patently obvious to most people that there would be a quick victory: Bilow, March 31, 2003 Now remember 'Nam? Remember how all those "civilians" shot the shit out of us? Good, cause those memories should be waking up now. The truth is that if we'd blown away Ho Chi Minh back in 1962 we'd still have ended up with our butts kicked a decade later. They were defending their home territory against an enemy that didn't look like them, didn't smell like them, didn't eat the same foods, couldn't understand their language, didn't believe in the same religion, and were using guns and even worse weapons all over the place to boot. If they hadn't shot at us, they wouldn't have been human. #reply-18743498 Michael Cummings, in reply: Carl, you're so fixated on Vietnam it has blinded you. This will be no Vietnam. This is not the Vietnam military, it's far better trained, better equipped and better led. Those who fixate on one event in history, and fail to see the changing circumstances will look foolish when this is all over. #reply-18744494 Bilow, in reply: Our military is so good mostly because it is a volunteer force. Unfortunately, the nature of the Iraqi conflict is such that we don't have a large enough volunteer force to deal with the problem. In Vietnam, we had the assistance of the ARVN, but we have no corresponding ally in Iraq. The British are not likely to follow the massive reinforcements we'll have to do. The end result is that in order to stay in Iraq, we will have to bring back conscription, and that will lower the quality of our forces. But I agree with you, the quality of our armed forces is now the highest it has ever been. This is the peak. The Administration's plans were caused by their fixation on the US military successes in Afghanistan and the Gulf war. This blinded them. What you accuse me of is exactly what the Administration has done. Instead of looking at war as a continuous feature of the human race, with thousands of years of history, they only looked at the two most recent conflicts. Their error is already apparent. No flag waving Iraqis. #reply-18780437 -- Carl P.S. Still no flag waving Iraqis. The truth is that five months ago you thought that this conflict was a few months from being completely over. Now you say it's just another 4 months. What will your opinion be in late January of 2004? The administration's own expectation is that there will still be large numbers of US troops in Iraq as of the end of 2004. The military in Iraq says that as long as we have troops there, they will be shot at. And the effect of our campaign is to train the Iraqis into becoming first class guerilla warriors. This will begin to yield real problems for us by January of next year. We will probably pass our 1000th KIA some time next year. So our casualties for 2003 and 2004 will approximately match the 1964 and 1965 years of Vietnam.

To: greenspirit who wrote (115920)	1/29/2004 10:45:37 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 281500

Hi Michael D. Cummings; Back on September 29th, you wrote: "The good news on Iraq just keeps trickling out. Soon we will see feature stories on 60 minutes. Give it another 4 months. The internet is bypassing the negative big industrial American media and providing first hand accounts of the good news happening daily. All one needs to do is listen to the signals of the people who are there. Heck, I'm thinking of scheduling a trip there myself next year." #reply-19352869 We've now given it another 4 months. Is the situation in Iraq better or worse than you expected back in September? I haven't seen you post here on FADG for a while and would appreciate an update as I am curious about how people are feeling about the war. -- Carl