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Gold/Mining/Energy : Precious and Base Metal Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Little Joe who wrote (21683)	10/4/2003 2:06:14 AM
From: Proud Deplorable	Respond to of 39344

I am not so much disagreeing. The title was designed to get your attention >g< You make an interesting point when you say the tops are volatile. It would be hard to believe that this is a top but rather that much of the volatility is contrived rather than evolutionary. If this is the case then it is still speculative to depend solely on zig zags. It was obvious that this particular drop was caused by stops being hit by funds selling out on long awaited and scarce good news on the economy which sent the dollar way up also. Funds that aren't as strong as they say but worried that they might lose profits if they didn't act in advance of the anticipated break above 400.00 Maybe it was irresitable but it was a convergence of events that caused the sell off and the reaching of new highs on the charts may have been a main feature but it wouldn't have happened without other news and events coming together on the perfect day. This isn't technical nor could it be predicted by charts. It was a case of the perfect storm coming ashore at high tide. I have been trading a bit, to answer your question. My luck this morning with CDE was good timing but just luck. Had I not had huge positions in ATH which I sold off at 400% gains and also VRB I might be sad today. Well I'm not worried. If gold runs up to 500.00 then 10% of my position in stocks goes and every hundred dollars thereafter the same thing. I have no interest in starting to sell the bulk of my PF until that time. I'm in it for the end game and if it puts an end to me before my hopes are realized then I will go down knowing that a lot of good people went down also, not that that is good but often the good die young. There are some things I'd like to buy and hopefully I'll be able to buy them with bullion instead of cash. So will I sell out completely ? No. The reason is that for all these years gold has been held down artificially and it will be interesting to see what happens when it finally moves up through this resistance. Gold WILL become the most valued 'currency' soon and why should anyone go back to the days of trusting governments that print us all into a bolivian?

To: Little Joe who wrote (21683)	10/4/2003 10:55:18 AM
From: Andrew	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 39344

Usually bottoms are more volatile as you will note on a chart of the VIX. stockcharts.com[w,a]wacayyay[pd20,2!b40][vc60][iLa12,26,9!Lh14,3]&pref=G This move down in the gold price wont last. We'll see Sunday night when Asian trading begins. Though this doesn't mean the equities aren't going to move down. By the way my 365 target got hit to the dollar and on Schedule. We'll see if it can hold. From the header in the Gold & Gold Stock Analysis thread I started original post on 08/16/2003. Subject 54201 GOLD IS IN A BULL MARKET. Next stop 385 Technical analysis is IMO very much of an if this then that science/art. My take on the next year or so. 1 - a decisive break out of this triangle takes gold to 385 - 390 in the next few weeks/month (mid Sept) 2 - gold then comes back to 365ish area and gets support on lower trend line (early-mid Oct) 3 - next move up pushes gold to the decade plus resistance at 420 (mid Dec-early Jan) 4 - a quick retrace to 385 - 390 (mid-late Jan) 5 - price turns upward once again and smashes 420 with a move similar to the break through 330 (Somtime in Feb) Target 450 - 500 (Sometime next year) The trend is still up and you can see on the gold chart that the trendline has not been breached. For now target remains 420 for Dec-Jan. And My DOW target for same period is 6500 - 7000. I continue to trade gold shares long and Tech shares short.

To: Little Joe who wrote (21683)	10/4/2003 11:20:21 AM
From: Elizabeth Andrews	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 39344

Dead on Little Joe. It looks to me like the correction in the senior producers actually started in mid to late August and, as usual, anticipated the correction now underway in the metal. One of the technical clues for me was when the juniors started "breaking out" but the price moves were without convincing volume. This is but a forum for making money as I have learned that none of these stocks care about my feelings toward them. I think the gold bull is still intact but I agree you have to have the trend closely in view as I have 50% chance of being wrong!