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To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (49341)	10/4/2003 4:07:16 PM
From: E.J. Neitz Jr	Respond to of 53068

Larry...Ron Couldn't agree more. For me, protection of assets more important than return on assets.

To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (49341)	10/4/2003 5:06:15 PM
From: DanZ	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53068

I agree with what you said, but the market is seeing growth ahead, which is why it is rallying. Obviously I don't know if the market is ahead of itself, but the bear market is over because the economy tends to move in the same direction for a while. It's like trying to slow down a freight train and reverse its direction. It builds momentum in one direction for a while, slows down, and then builds momentum in the other direction. Clearly we are building momentum in a growth cycle. The employment data out yesterday provided the final missing link that the markets needed to have confidence that the economy is on a solid growth path. Rates are low, personal income is up, and now it appears that the job market is finally turning around. There must be a lot of pent up demand for products since people have been holding off many purchases due to a lack of confidence in the economy. Increases in spending will add fuel to the job fire because companies will hire to meet the increasing demand. The markets will overshoot like they usually do. We aren't even close to the end of this bull run in my opinion, although there's no doubt that there will be setbacks along the way, which are very healthy. PS to Wiesia: You posted a trade on this thread the other day. Did you intend to post it on the ZPortfolio thread? Message 19369129 Thanks.

To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (49341)	10/4/2003 6:57:55 PM
From: chowder	Respond to of 53068

Ron, I think the average American has the wrong read on world events. The war was never about WMD's. There's the excuse you give to the public to win their hearts and minds, then there's the real reason that you don't find out about until years later. There are things going on in that part of the world that we don't hear about. I recall a time about a year ago when I made the comment on this thread about my Fort Jackson indicator. That indicator was the practice of artillery fire over at Fort Jackson, shaking my house with every outgoing round. Fort Jackson is a recruit base. They don't practice with artillery here. Over the years, every time I've heard those big guns going off, we sent troops off to fight somewhere. I recall Clinton saying we were not going to Bosnia. At the same time, those guns were going off. My leading indicator proved correct once more. In the business world we say, follow the money. In the world of politics, follow the military. We are now in the process of trying to establish Naval bases in Africa. We are establishing an occupying presence in the Middle East. There are things going on that we won't hear about on CNN or MTV news. I suspect the business world has a better feel for world events than us retail investors. The market is always right, no sense in fighting it. Those who do, underperform in the long run. dabum

To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (49341)	10/4/2003 8:44:34 PM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

This is what concerns me the most. Loss of manufacturing jobs. Followed by no jobs available other than at WalMart or the Army. Followed by the slow death of smaller towns and rural areas that depended upon a nearby factory for employment. I think a lot of people on SI and a lot of people in government are missing the seriousness of these events. Why? Because it hasn't yet directly affected their lifestyle is my guess. If it continues unchecked, they all will wish they paid more attention. Just one example. But being repeated over and over in various communities. Is everybody so isolated in big cities and in their own wealth that they just can't perceive the undercurrent of destruction that these permanent losses of quality jobs are building? Or do they just plain not care cause the problem isn't affecting them, yet? This segment of our country is going to be absolutely financially buried when Greenspan and the Fed reverse course. ---------------------------------------------------- biz.yahoo.com Factory Closures Devastate U.S. Towns Saturday October 4, 3:42 pm ET By Andrea Hopkins WASHINGTON (Reuters) - When Jerry Wilmouth moved to Galesburg, Illinois, five years ago, everyone told him to get a job at Maytag Corp.'s (NYSE:MYG - News) refrigerator plant. Maytag paid the best, they said, and the 50-year-old factory was the lifeblood of the city. Now, Wilmouth and 379 others are spending their first week of life after Maytag -- the first of 1,600 workers to be laid off between now and the end of 2004, when the plant closes for good and Maytag moves the work to Mexico. The 46-year-old father of three said he has little hope of finding work in Galesburg to match the $15 an hour he made on the assembly line, and now his 17-year-old daughter is thinking about joining the army to pay for college. "Every decent-paying job in the area is going, going or already gone and I'm faced with taking a job for $6, $7, $8 an hour," said Wilmouth. The loss of 2.5 million manufacturing jobs since January 2001 has devastated factory towns across middle America, where once-dominant local employers are pulling up stakes and heading to Mexico or Asia in search of lower costs and cheaper labor. The exodus of 1,600 Maytag jobs is only the tip of the iceberg in Galesburg. Everyone from sheet metal suppliers to local firms providing toilet paper and light bulbs rely on the plant for business in the town of about 33,700 about 150 miles southwest of Chicago According to a study by the Institute for Rural Affairs at Western Illinois University, the Maytag plant is the dominant industry for nine surrounding counties. For every Maytag worker laid off, nearly three other jobs will disappear as the loss of so many high-paying jobs ripples through the economy -- taking total jobs losses to 4,166. "Never in my life have I lived in a place that is sort of going backwards like this," said Chris Merrett, an associate professor at the institute. "Along with agriculture, this kind of manufacturing was the economic base and those jobs are going elsewhere." PINK SLIP DREAMS Since the end of the 2001 U.S. recession, job losses have ballooned in many sectors despite economic growth. This "jobless recovery" has drained one in six factory jobs, squeezing many of the nation's more highly paid workers. Manufacturing pays an average $45,580 in annual wages -- about 17 percent higher than the average U.S. job, according to the National Association of Manufacturers (News - Websites). The layoffs have carved a swath of unemployment through the Midwest, where cornfields made way for factories after World War II as industry shifted from big cities to comparatively low-cost rural areas. In Wichita, Kansas, some 11,000 aerospace workers have lost their jobs since 2001 as employers outsourced both parts supply and assembly overseas, sideswiping the local economy. Carolyn Summers, a 41-year-old mother of two was laid off from her job at Boeing Co.'s Witchita plant (NYSE:BA - News) two years ago, and she mourns the devastation she has seen. "I see so many people that I worked with at Boeing, and they're still unemployed just as I am," said Summers. She blames free trade and President Bush for allowing U.S. companies to outsource overseas. "I wish the government would really see what it is doing to the American people. We built this country, and I feel that they're letting it turn into almost a ghost town," she said. A single mother, Summers most regrets the impact the loss her $18.67-an-hour job has had on her 21-year-old daughter, who was away at college studying nursing when the pink slip came. She now works at Wal-Mart to pay for her part-time studies at Wichita's local community college. "That's one dream you're always saying -- 'My child is going to go to college'," lamented Summers. "All my American dreams just seem to (have been) written on a pink slip."