Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Neocon who wrote (116340)	10/7/2003 6:43:46 PM
From: Sam	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 281500

Neo, "First, it is not even coming from the broad mass of Sunnis, but a small fraction." Neither one of us really knows how many Iraqis are actively resisting the US. But my guess is that it is more than a "small fraction," at least in the triangle area. If the broad mass of Iraqis actually supported the US, even if temporarily, the "small fraction" wouldn't be able to get away as frequently as they have been. Your guess is, this resistance will petre out in the next few months or so (OK, I'm putting words in your mouth there, I don't know what your time frame is really). My guess is that it will continue to get stronger, more frequent, and more organized, as these guys figure out how they can best fight and as more Iraqis get pissed off at the US. Second, the Turks are not supposed to be stationed in the Kurdish North, and will not be operationally free- lancing, it is no betrayal. Getting Turkish troops into Iraq will only exacerbate the situation, IMHO. Even if they are in the Sunni areas. The Kurds won't like it wherever they are. And neither, for that matter, will the Sunnis, if they are helping to track them down. Apparently, we can't even depend on Arabic speaking Americans to be 100% loyal to the US, as the recent Guantanamo cases suggest; you think that troops from a country that was 95% against the US starting the war, and is still opposed to the US by a wide margin, are going to help us in Iraq? Personally, I shake my head in dismay. I just see us getting deeper and deeper in doodoo. Third, there is every indication that most Shi'ites know that they must share power, and therefore devise a formula that falls short of simple majoritarianism. Sure, some guys on the US hand-picked IGC are talking to each other. And sure they're trying to work things out, especially the Shias--they after all have the most to gain, they are the majority, after all, and, unlike here, I suspect that they will get near 100% of voters voting. But will theIGC really be able to speak for the broader mass of a people armed to the gills who have a deep antipathy for each other and have very recently engaged in mass murder of each other? It strikes me as a dubious proposition, especially once the US actually leaves, whenever that will be (who knows, maybe it'll be another 50 year stay like in Korea and Germany). Guess we'll have to see who is right here. You may not believe this, but I hope you are. I recall saying similar things as you are today after Camp David and after Oslo about prospects for peace between Israelis and Palestineans.... Similar hopeful expressions of "things are getting better...."