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Strategies & Market Trends : Trading with Jerry Olson(OJ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jerry Olson who wrote (1245)	10/12/2003 11:07:17 AM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1617

Here's the newsletter from Sept 28th...good luck to you all ============================================================ JERRY OLSON'S "POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER DATED 28TH SEPT 2003 PULLBACK OR CORRECTION? Hello out there my trading buddies. That was the week from hell for me, hopefully not for you...In the last 7 months that was my 3rd losing week overall. While I'm not crying about it, I can say I traded it like a dunce. I had a lot of money made early in the week, and then some distractions popped up and down I went full load and all. Not a very good first week for all the newbies that just signed up eh?. Well take heart that ain't gonna happen again too soon. I have these bouts of senior moments once in awhile but as a scalper, I have no problems with gaining all losses back and then some. I've done this for years. I just hate to have anyone else follow me into those lousy trades. So just wait till you see if I'm back on track first ok? What with Mish 5000, Ari, and George along with a host of people contributing to my room, I think you'll all be fine..Learn how they trade wait and see what they do and make your own decisions. They all make money folks..ALL!!! without exception. So hang tough i'll bring it back hard ASAP. On to the markets in general....Well we are getting this pullback during the end of the Quarter Window Dressing phase during the seasonal factors here, that usually are weaker at this time of the year. As I wrote last week the fund managers HAVE to take profits to show their people the money. Otherwise it could look bad for them. Now right after they sell these stocks they'll come back in and buy them all over again..Maybe not right away but certainly at the lows coming later this fall. Well let me say I think they will. Bullishness is still rampant here, and will not wane till something drastic happens out there and I do not see anything on the horizon as yet to warrant them from not stepping back up to the plate. The key is to be in front of them on this next major dip & reversal back up. Look each day, each week I write to you with stocks to watch and trade. Folks, do yourself a big favor. After you read my newsletter put it down and then re- read it the next day. What I mean is this. I always give you my feelings about a certain stock that has a shot at doing this or that over and above normal thinking. You need to familiarize yourself with those stocks that have the "edge" over others to trade. Everyone I do post SHORT triggers right? Does everyone think they work? Let me tell you when the street sells they really get out fast and money can be made quickly on the short side if your nimble. If your afraid to short, learn how to and watch the traders in the room, They are NO different than going long.. NONE ZERO ZIP. Same trade really except it's going down? So learn to sell short...watch for bounces back up into overhead R at the 20 & 40 emas daily charts and then whack them as long as the futures are moving lower. Simple really, just trust it, it works all the time. well most of the time<g> Right now there are some chinks again showing up in the P&F indicators. We had the single biggest swamp job on Friday that I've seen in months. It was Hugh losers to winners. All the stocks on all the indicators on their 30 week moving averages moved into O's. However the hi lo of both the NYSE & OTC are still in X's as I write this. None of the big main coaches are in any jeopardy yet. Another bad week like last week and a lot of things can change that would make me very bearish. Right now? I am still thinking we continue to pullback a bit further, then large oversold rally will ensue ahead of earnings season. Why? because hope springs eternal out there. The Street loves to be bullish or on the right side of the craps table..They are NOT wrong way bettors, understand? Well I do and I know you do, so we wait for this dip to finish, then get in for a quick ride up in Oct for the money, then lookout below. There's a phrase I've used here before named Macro Cycle Lows. It's an historical pattern that continues to repeat it self during these fall days. Will it happen here? I think so but more like late Oct into late Nov. I would dearly love to buy that dip. You;ll see some high volume selling 2 billion share days with more than 2% moves in the indexes just like we saw this week, but only more vicious. Then we buy. Not till then.. Talking about some heavy position type trades in the semis using the SMH..I am really liking some particular stocks too..KLIC will be one..STAT & GERN in the bio techs..they are all optionable. We'll be there...just relax..no rush..we are buying pullbacks into those dates. Be patient. =============================================================================================== OK LET'S DO ALL THE INDEXES AND BULLISH PERCENTS TO SEE WHERE WE ARE AT RIGHT NOW. DJIA---9300 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN HERE..THEY JUST CANNOT SELL THIS BEHEMOTH OFF..THE NYSE BP(BULLISH PERCENT) IS AT 79.32% AND IS NOWHERE CLOSE TO REVERSING DOWN...NOWHERE. THERE IS A LOT OF SUPPORT AT 9000 TO 9200 HERE. THE AUGUST LOWS ARE THERE TOO...BTW THAT 9300 IS THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK TRADING BAND. COMPX---FELL OUT OF A RISING WEDGE ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART(DCC), THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK IS AT 1775 A GOOD TARGET. THE 38.2% RETRACE DOWN IS AT 1660 MAYBE NOT RIGHT HERE..LATER PERHAPS. THERE'S GOOD S AT 1740ISH..1830 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP. NDX---HANGING IN MID AIR ON THE DCC(DAILY CANDLE CHART) 1275 COULD BE A GOOD TARGET. THERE'S GOOD S(SUPPORT) AT 1290 TOO. A BREAK OF 1280 IS BAD THO COULD GET THIS INDEX DOWN TO 1210 IN A HURRY..IT MOVES VERY FAST. THE BP NDX IS RIGHT WHERE IT WAS LAST WEEK..IT NEVER FLINCHED? WEIRD... SOX---IN PERIL HERE AFTER BREAKING DOWN THRU 425, VERY NEGATIVE TO ME, NEXT TARGET IS AT 400/395 THE BULLISH SUPPORT LINE(BSL). THAT BREAK WAS A SPREAD TRIPLE BOTTOM BREAK. IF WE GET TO MY TARGET I'LL BUY THAT DIP USING THE SMH AND KLIC. MAYBE THE JAN/FEB CALLS WITH STOPS---FOR A TRADE ONLY!!!<G>...440 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP. THE SEMIS BP IS AT 82.40% JUST .40% AWAY FROM REVERSING BACK DOWN.. BKX---HOLDING OK FOR NOW HERE AT THE 40 EMA. IT'S RIGHT AT THE MIDDLE OF THE 10 WEEK. 890 THE 3 BOX UP BUT ANY BREAK OF 850 LOOKOUT BELOW. BTK---MAKING A LOWER HIGH AT 490 WITH THAT 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN HERE. AT SUPPORT AT THE BSL LINE SO WE'LL SEE HUH? ON THE WEEKLY LOOKS LIKE A PB TO THE 20 EMA. BP BIO TECHS AT 64.83 JUST .83% AWAY FROM A REVERSAL BACK DOWN AGAIN...LIKE A YO-YO REALLY. WELL WE ALL KNEW THAT RIGHT? BIO'S ARE NUTTY<G> SPX---RIGHT HERE AT MY TARGET..TOUCHED 996 ON P&F. 980 HOWEVER NEEDS TO HOLD...965 IS DYNAMIC SUPPORT(S) BUT IF WE BREAK 960 RUN FOR THE HILLS. 1015 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK UP. BP SPX IS AT 78.56 SO OK HERE, IT TAKES 76% TO REVERSE IT BACK DOWN...WATCHING. SPZ3---BROKE DOWN AT 1012 THEN CRASHED THRU 1004 BUT TOUCHED MY TARGET OF 996. THERE'S S AT 984 THEN DYNAMIC S AT 976 WILL WE GET THAT FAR DOWN THIS WEEK..IF THEY CAN'T TAKE IT THERE RIGHT NOW BUYERS WILL COME LATER ON THIS WEEK AHEAD OF EPS NEWS. WATCH 1008 FIRST THEN A BOUNCE TO THE 1020 AREA. WE ARE CURRENTLY SITTING RIGHT ON THE 200 EMA ON THE DCC CHART.. NQZ3--WHOA BABY..GOT MURDERED THIS WEEK..LIKE WHAT HIT US!!! IT BROKE A DB AT 1320 BUT IT'S DOWN ALMOST A 100 POINTS FROM THE TOP SO FAR. THE DDC CHART IS HANGING IN MID AIR..NOT GOOD. IT ALREADY BLEW THRU THE 38.2% RETRACE MARCH LOW SEPT TOP...1294 IS THE 50% 1268 61.8% SO WE'LL SEE WHAT THEY BRING TO THE TABLE NEXT WEEK.. VXO---THE NEW IMPROVED VIX INDEX<G>...LOOKS READY TO BREAKOUT(B/O) AT 26. HOWEVER THERE'S VERY HARD R OVERHEAD(O/H) AT 27/28 AREA...I WAS THINKING HERE... WE HIT THOSE NUMBERS THIS WEEK, THEN SELLOFF. AS THE MARKETS BEGIN TO RALLY. THEN? AFTER THE VXO PULLS BACK, IT THEN ROARS UP AND OVER THAT BEARISH RESISTANCE LINE(BRL) AND EXPLODES AS WE PLUNGE TO THE DEPTHS OF DESPAIR. MAN I SHOULDA BEEN A NOVELIST WRITING WILD BOOKS HUH? HEY MY IMAGINATION IS NOT ALL GUESS WORK..HEH HEH HEH...IT "COULD" HAPPEN RIGHT? I ACTUALLY THINK IT WILL... ================================================================================================ OK LET'S DO OUR FAMED WATCH LIST FOR THE WEEK..WE ARE NEAR THE 50 DAY EMA ON THE COMPX...IN AUGUST WE HELD AND RALLIED..THIS IS HOWEVER NOT AUGUST..WILL IT HOLD AGAIN? OVTI---WHAT A PERFECT PULLBACK HERE...IF WE RALLY I AM TAKING THIS LONG. IT'S RIGHT AT THE ZERO LINE ON THE DCC CCI. 45.20 THE BTL(BUY TRIGGER LONG)---44.30 THE SST... AMZN---A BREAK BELOW 48 GIVES THIS AMAZING STOCK IT'S FIRST 3 BOX REVERSAL DOWN FOR MONTHS ON END. POWERFUL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCELLENT EARNINGS THIS QUARTER..WE NEED JUST A BIT MORE OF A PULLBACK TO BUY IT AHEAD OF THAT DATE. 20 EMA 47.00...49.15 THE BTL---47.95 THE SST I'LL TAKE THAT SHORT BRCM---CAREFUL HERE YOU LONGS. DOUBLE DOJI'S ON THE DCC CHART HOWEVER IT IS SITTING ON THE 20 EMA DCC..25 THE 3 BOX REVERSAL DOWN..THERE'S BEEN TOUGH O/H R (RESISTANCE) AT 28ISH...27.15 THE BTL---26.00 THE SST---THAT SHORT LOOKS GOOD.. EBAY---SITTING ON THE 20 EMA DCC RIGHT HERE..NEEDS TO BREAK 54 THE REVERSAL BACK DOWN...TARGET 51 IF IT HOLDS I'LL BUY IT THERE AHEAD OF EPS NEXT MONTH COMPRENDE'?...54.75 THE BTL---53.65 THE SST..LOOKS OK SS... IMCL---BROKE A SPREAD TRIPLE BOTTOM OFF THAT TOP AT 48. TAKING A BREATHER HERE...STILL LOOKS LOWER TO ME...BUT WE COULD BE IN FOR A SHORT BLIP UP IN GENERAL SO WE'LL SEE...38.30 THE BTL---37.15 THE SST. KLAC---THE CHART STILL REMAINS SOLID FOR NOW...THATS ON P&F..ON THE DAILY CANDLE CHART IT LOOKS UG-L-LY...TARGET THERE AT 47 AREA...THATS THE DOUBLE BOTTOM(DB) ON P&F TOO. 52.35 THE BTL---51.25 THE SST... MSFT---NOT A PRETTY SIGHT HERE ON THE DCC CHART..JUST A PB ON P&F..YOU CAN PLAINLY SEE THAT CANDLESTICKS MOVE QUICKER THAN P&F. BUT P&F GETS YOU IN AT S & R AREAS. DOUBLE DOJI'S ON THE DCC CHART....28.65 THE BTL---27.75 THE SST. QCOM---IT BROKE OUT OF THAT HORRIFIC RESISTANCE TOP AREA AT 40 ZOOMED UP TO 46 WITHOUT A RETRACE. JUST CAME BACK DOWN HERE AND STILL LOOKS LIKE IT NEEDS TO PULLBACK(PB) TO THE B/O AGAIN..I'D BUY THAT DIP FOLKS...42.15 THE BTL---41.10 THE SST... QLGC---MADE A LOWER HIGH AT 52, AND NEVER DID B/O ABOVE 54. NOW PULLING BACK OFF THAT TOP HEADING LOWER HERE. SEMIS ARE WEAK AT "THE MOMENT"...47.90 THE BTL---46.75 THE SST...EXCELLENT SS TRIGGER THERE. RIMM---WHAT A STOCK AND WHAT A CHART..REPORTED GREAT EPS AND GUIDED HIGHER IN THE 4TH Q...BUY ALL DIPS HERE..36 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL BACK DOWN COULD GET LOWER TO 33-34 IF THE MARKET CONTUES TO PB HERE..WE'LL SEE...37.85 THE BTL---36.75 THE SST...36 IS ALSO THE LOWER GAP AREA TO FILL... SLAB---DOJI FRIDAY AT THE BRINK ON P&F..AMAZING HOW STRONG STOCKS BECOME SO WEAK SO FAST AS SELLERS DIVE IN TO TAKE PROFITS...WHAT GOES UP COMES DOWN MUCH FASTER FOLKS...48 THE BTL---46.90 THE SST..NICE SS THERE... YHOO---AFTER DOING A BEARISH SIGNAL REVERSAL UP. IT HIT 29 OFF THE DB BREAK THEN ZOOMED RIGHT UP TO 38 FAST..IT JUST COMPLETED A 3 BOX REV DOWN HERE. SITTING AT THE 20 EMA...33 MID OF THE 10 WEEK...35.75 THE BTL---34.55 THE SST SINA---VERY SHORT TERM OVERSOLD. 2 MURDEROUS DAYS OF SELLING..I LOST A TON ON THIS STOCK...I WILL SCALP IT ALL BACK...I DID SAY "ALL"....JUST BE CAREFUL NOW EITHER WAY...SITTING ON THE 40 EMA DCC...THE ADX IS OVERSOLD HERE ON THE 15 MIN CHART...34.20 THE BTL---33.05 THE SST... INTC---ON A VERY HIGH POLE HAS NOT REVERSED DOWN 1 INCH SINCE EARLY APRIL..TRULY AMAZING...IT'S GOING TO REVERSE HERE THO 26 IS THE 3 BOX REVERSAL...27.85 THE BTL---26.85 THE SST... CREE---THIS THING EXPLODED OFF GOOD NEWS AND AN UPGRADE. JUST LOOK AT THAT DCC CHART FOLKS..NOW THATS A GRAVESTONE DOJI IF I EVER SAW ONE..WHEW! THIS STOCK SHOULD PB TOWARD THE 20 EMA THERE AT 17-18 BUCKS...IT WOULD BE A GOOD BUY THERE...19.70 THE BTL---18.70 THE SST...FILLED THE GAP LAST WEEK... CELL---THEY TORE THIS ONE APART<G> TALK ABOUT A HIGH POLE...WELL THATS GONE NOW...HAHAHAHAA..SITTING ON THE 20 EMA DCC...BOUNCE?...NEAR THE ZERO LINE ON THE CCI...32.30 THE BTL---31.30 THE SST... SOHU---DOUBLE CAPITULATION DAYS THURS & FRIDAY..VERY OVERSOLD SHORT TERM...3 BLACK CROWS TOO...UH OH...32.10 THE BTL---31.00 THE SST...POSSIBLE TARGET HERE IS AROUND 26...I'D LIKE TO LOAD UP THERE... SNDK---ALL THIS DID WAS MOVE BACK DOWN 4 BOXES PERIOD...IT HAS A STELLAR CHART AND ONLY A BREAK OF 60 WOULD SENT IT MUCH LOWER...THATS THE 40 EMA DCC...64.30 THE BTL---63.20 THE SST... KLIC---BROKE A DB AT AT 11.00..LOOKS LIKE A NORMAL PB HERE IS ALL SO FAR. 10.85 THE BTL---10.10 THE SST...RECENT B/O WAS AT 8.00 I'D DEARLY LOVE TO BUY JAN 2005 LEAPS ON THAT BABY RIGHT THERE..COME ON DOWN PLEASE? SMH---ROUNDED TOP PATTERN ON THE DCC NEGATIVE AS ALL GET OUT. I HAVE A DOWNSIDE FINAL TARGET OF MAYBE 30 HERE AT THE 200 EMA OVER THE NEXT 30-60 DAYS..IT COULD GO LOWER OF COURSE WE'LL SEE...SAME DEAL FOR ME..JAN 2005 LEAP CALLS ARE THE PLAY HERE I AM TALKING ABOUT CALLS FOLKS...AFTER THIS PB I EXPECT THE SEMIS TO ROCK UP HARD...35.00 THE BTL---34.20 THE SST... =============================================================================================== OK WHAT I AM SEEING HERE IS TWO THINGS..WEEKLY MOMENTUM IS TURNING NOW. STOCKS ARE NOT AS STRONG. AND THERE ARE A TON OF REVERSE PENNANTS OUT THERE ON THE 15 MINUTE CHARTS...STUDENTS CHECK THEM OUT PLEASE..THEY ARE VERY PLENTIFUL FOR SHORT SCALPS...A LOT OF THE DAILY CHARTS HAVE THE "LOOK" OF MORE DOWNSIDE MAYBE AFTER THE SHORT POP HERE. SO BE COOL STAY VERY ALERT HERE AS TO WHAT I AM CALLING IN THE ROOM..INTRADAY REVERSAL ON THE FUTURES ARE GOING TO BE WICKEDLY FAST AND VOLATILE. THE PASSWORD FOR THIS WEEK IS=================dressing...................one word lower case. see you all in the room, I expect Ari MIsh and George and the whole gang in here for the remainder of the year... oh yeah I got good news this weekend I'm going to be a grandfather in May of next year...<ggggggggggg> man I am pumped... see you jerry jerry olson www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com jerry.olson@verizon.net