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Strategies & Market Trends : Group Theories -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: macavity who wrote (743)	10/13/2003 1:42:04 PM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1017

IT Outlook PM Complex. Outlook: MIXED (Neutral/Bullish). IT_PVTCHARTS have now turned up for BOTH $HUI and $XAU. IT_MOMENTUM remains Neutral (#NA) for both indices. I am now Neutral to Bullish, provided that PVTLOWs hold. Awaiting close - very low volume day and we are really at GAP resistance for a lot of stocks from 25-26 Sep 2003. -macavity

To: macavity who wrote (743)	10/18/2003 2:43:30 AM
From: macavity	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1017

IT Outlook : PM Complex Outlook: BULLISH/NEUTRAL from MIXED Watch IT PIVOT LEVELs STOCKS - BULLISH; METALS - BEAR/NEUTRAL Stocks: IT_PIVOTCHARTs are BULLISH IT_MOMENTUM is BULLISH IT_TRENDOSCILLATORS are MIDRANGE Metals: These are a lot less bullish, and do give some cause for concern. MO PVT PVTHIGH PVTLOW $XAU BULL BULL 94.64 90.30 $HUI BULL BULL 207.20 195.74 $AU BEAR BEAR 377.10 366.80 $AG BEAR BULL 4.99 4.86 I continue to be skeptical this recent rally in the PM complex. We have good stochastic support to rally, but looking at shorter term charts - intraday and stuff - I just do not 'see' things that convince me. My levels in the indices were met to turn me IT BULLISH, and I am confident that we have may have seen the momentum low for this move down. However I am not conviced that we have seen the price low, and consider that $HUI and $XAU can retrace their rallies of the past 2 weeks, or so. $HUI=200 remains key. If we close under that then the chances of a retrace to $HUI=186/5 increase drastically as the odds are this week saw an ST top like the stocks. In the ST we are overbought and the IT_TREND is weak, so a short-term swing down is a probability rather than just a possibility. We need to rally soon or else it is down, or worse - sideways! On the plus side $AU tested and bounced off the low at the 366 level. We now need $AU to rally above the 377/8 level to turn its IT_PIVOTCHART up. Usually I expect the stocks to lead the metals up, but I have no clear idea what is going on here. Disconnect ? Who knows? Long YGZ3 - added some on Friday -macavity