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To: keokalani'nui who wrote (519)	10/11/2003 4:25:20 PM
From: Mike McFarland	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1336

48.35 N 133.94 W Buoy #36 ndbc.noaa.gov The format will be screwed up, but min pressure was 28.88", and 32 foot seas look like the peak so far. The low must have been just north of the buoy as it passed, 28.88" is about 977mb, and I think the low was several mb deeper than that. Previous 24 observations MM DD HH PDT WDIR WSPD kts GST kts WVHT ft DPD sec APD sec MWD PRES in PTDY in ATMP °F WTMP °F DEWP °F SAL VIS mi TIDE ft 10 11 11 am W 36.9 46.6 30.5 13 - - 28.91 -0.01 53.6 54.7 - - - - 10 11 10 am WSW 35.0 46.6 30.8 15 - - 28.91 +0.00 53.4 54.7 - - - - 10 11 9 am WSW 36.9 48.6 30.5 13 - - 28.91 +0.02 52.9 54.7 - - - - 10 11 8 am W 36.9 48.6 31.5 15 - - 28.92 +0.04 53.6 54.7 - - - - 10 11 7 am WSW 35.0 44.7 31.2 16 - - 28.90 +0.02 53.6 54.9 - - - - 10 11 6 am WSW 35.0 44.7 28.5 14 - - 28.89 -0.04 53.8 54.9 - - - - 10 11 5 am WSW 35.0 50.5 28.2 14 - - 28.88 -0.06 54.0 55.0 - - - - 10 11 4 am SW 31.1 40.8 23.9 14 - - 28.88 -0.11 53.8 55.2 - - - - 10 11 3 am SW 31.1 40.8 22.3 12 - - 28.93 -0.14 54.5 55.2 - - - - 10 11 2 am SW 33.0 42.7 21.0 11 - - 28.95 -0.17 54.7 55.2 - - - - 10 11 1 am S 31.1 38.9 17.4 10 - - 28.99 -0.17 54.3 55.2 - - - - 10 11 12 am S 27.2 35.0 17.4 11 - - 29.07 -0.19 56.1 55.2 - - - - 10 10 11 pm S 29.1 35.0 18.0 10 - - 29.12 -0.23 57.6 55.2 - - - - 10 10 10 pm SSE 36.9 46.6 17.7 10 - - 29.16 -0.28 54.9 55.2 - - - - 10 10 9 pm SSE 35.0 46.6 15.1 9 - - 29.26 -0.31 53.6 54.9 - - - - 10 10 8 pm SSE 35.0 46.6 12.5 8 - - 29.35 -0.31 52.7 54.7 - - - - 10 10 7 pm SSE 35.0 44.7 11.5 7 - - 29.44 -0.29 53.2 54.7 - - - - 10 10 6 pm SSE 31.1 42.7 10.2 6 - - 29.57 -0.24 52.7 54.5 - - - - 10 10 5 pm SSE 27.2 36.9 10.2 11 - - 29.66 -0.20 52.0 54.5 - - - - 10 10 4 pm SSE 29.1 36.9 9.2 12 - - 29.73 -0.18 52.3 54.5 - - - - 10 10 3 pm S 25.3 35.0 9.5 12 - - 29.80 -0.16 52.9 54.7 - - - - 10 10 2 pm SSE 21.4 27.2 8.5 12 - - 29.86 -0.12 52.7 54.7 The scatterometer winds have lots of 50kts behind the low. (this is only fresh if you're looking at it today, midday) ndbc.noaa.gov I'll save a copy and if anybody wants it, email me at Mike.McFarland@att.net The biggest swell should hit the Oregon coast (IMHO) not the WA coast, as the WW3 shows. 30 footers, sure. Yikes, buoy 5 had 37ft seas last hour. That is headed for Brookings I would imagine. This ought to make the evening news, ~heh. Unfortunately, early season swell like this is bound to kill a couple people. There is some sort of volunteer beach clean up on the Oregon coast this weekend--I hope they cancel it. The sneaker waves come in first I think, as the biggest travel fastest... After you do your own forecast, check the AFD...here is a marine discussion from the Portland office: .MARINE...DEEP LOW OFFSHORE SHIP REPORTS...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND QUICKSCAT WINDS SHOW AREA OF 50-70 KT WINDS NEAR THE BENT BACK OCCLUSION AROUND THE LOW. DIRECTION AND SPEED OF LOW FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPING SIGNIFICANT HIGH SURF EVENT AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE. ENP WAVE MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE EVENT HIGHEST WINDS USED BY MODEL MAY BE A LITTLE LOW. SWELL FROM THIS STORM WILL BEGIN REACHING THE N OREGON/SW WA COAST AROUND NOON BUT THE HIGH SWELLS WILL ARRIVE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG THE COASTLINE. PEAK HEIGHTS AROUND 30 FT LATER THIS EVENING. GALES ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS MORNING NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT THIS IS MARGINAL. SCHNEIDER