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Technology Stocks : Lam Research (LRCX, NASDAQ): To the Insiders -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: All Mtn Ski who wrote (4884)	10/13/2003 6:20:25 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

Re:With the re-inflated liquidity/bubble rally here We have come off of lows from the Iraq war/terrorism/corporate malfeasance/SARS. A healthy rally is to be expected here! Why is everyone so surprised, especially if we are looking at 5% GDP growth? And calling it a bubble is a bit disingenuous as we are heading past 2000 "bubble" levels right now as we speak in terms of IC unit volume. We are seeing the volume surge with a paucity in capex......something has got to give. icinsights.com Re:Much recent capex has been technology purchases and not much additional capacity "Much" should be changed to "Practically All." but I can't help but feel this is going to end badly without some serious fundamental improvement soon, IMHO There are many people who repeated this year-in, year-out from 1994 on. Brian

To: All Mtn Ski who wrote (4884)	10/13/2003 7:45:27 PM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5867

You're right to be concerned. All of these are being bought purely on the premis that they can be sold to some greater fool at or nearer to the semi equip cycle earnings peak. Everyone is prepared or preparing for the day when these stocks earn $1+ EPS and the analysts are touting the fantasy of increasing earnings for the next infinity years. As for "never reached trough levels seen in past downturns, namely trading near 1X Sales and Book or less at the trough." Maybe the reason is simple. Most all these companies did a far better job of slimming down this cycle. Thus earnings never went seriously negative. And now they have established a very low breakeven sales point. Average yearly earnings of the last 5 year cycle were 45 cents for AMAT and 75 cents for KLAC just fyi. So you can see that these stocks are expensive by that measure. NOT THAT VALUATION MATTERS ONE BIT.