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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (39620)	10/15/2003 9:47:15 AM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

>>unlikely to reach the glory day levels within the next 20 years<< You are predicting that the telecomm industry will see sub 1% annual revenues growth for the next 20 years. Hmmm. You have got to stop drinking the doomster Kool-Aid.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (39620)	10/15/2003 10:08:00 AM
From: Bid Buster	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

No way telecoms have a lasting recovery with over 6000 companies in the sector..When 80% of them die by attrition then and only then will margins support profits.

To: TobagoJack who wrote (39620)	10/15/2003 6:43:32 PM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

End not in sight. Rates of decline have decelerated. Mood of the market had improved. Fundamental problems had ameliorated. But stil some more to go towards the bottom. Market prospects 15 October 2003 - OpticalKeyhole website Talking to the Financial Times in Geneva yesterday, both Pat Russo and John Chambers remained very cautious on the state of the market, confirming that whilst the mood of the market had improved and many of its fundamental problems had ameliorated, many of their telecommunications customers were continuing to cut capital spending and that it made no sense to call a turn as long as this is happening. As Russo said, "Rates of decline in spending have decelerated but I'm not prepared to call the bottom". She added, "There is more of a sense of optimism in the economy than there has been in the last couple of years, which is a bit more encouraging...But I won't say I see a recovery until the operators and the world start spending more rather than less." In a typically curious bit of Chambers-speak, the Cisco CEO said he did not intend to make any further layoffs and that growth in markets like WLAN and optical networking would naturally reduce the company's operating expenses from 41% of sales to 35% - the company's target. Since this would require total sales growth in the range 15-20%, equivalent to an increment in sales of around $3 billion, and the company's sales line has been flat as a pancake or declining over the last seven quarters, Chambers can hardly be expecting this to happen very soon, though that perhaps was the impression given. Admittedly a month ago Cisco said its orderbook in August had strengthened by 14%, which is a bunch - though how much of that was due to Linksys and some recalculation of that company's enterable orderbook will only be made clear presumably when the company reports late in October.