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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sea_urchin who wrote (19352)	10/17/2003 11:48:42 PM
From: Jamey	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81914

Tim Wood> I can tell you that the bullish comments we have all heard from the Wall Street cheerleaders is not based on sound analysis. It is purely based on Wall Street hope and hype. The bear market is not dead. October 2002 was not “The Mother of all Bottoms” and the Dow is not going to 12,000 until after this bear market draws to a conclusion. I still have minimum down side objectives for the DJIA of approximately 3,000. What we are hearing from these mainstream Wall Street cheerleaders will unfortunately cause great financial harm to those who buy their line. Once again: This is a Bear Market Rally. Since the rally off of the March low began, I have warned that nothing has changed in the bigger picture. I have said countless times that this rally is nothing more than a bear market rally. I have tried to present historical evidence in support of this argument. It is true that this bear market rally has lasted longer and gone further than anticipated and yes, it is possible that this bear market rally could still have a little further to go. Nevertheless, I have repeatedly warned that it was nothing more than a bear market rally and not to get too emotional about the rally as this emotion will cause you to lose site of the bigger picture. More recently I have warned about the signs of distribution and the fact that the rally out of the August low has been anemic. I now want to take a brief look at a few extreme examples that are warning those that are willing to listen that this bear market rally is indeed about to run out of gas. Warning Signals The second chart below is a weekly chart of the S&P 500 and the VIX. The VIX is basically a tool that can be used to measure market fear and optimism. Note that readings at or below 19 typically mark important market turning points. I have marked recent readings of this level with a vertical blue line on the chart below. We are now operating outside the norm for this indicator. Financial Sense financialsense.com