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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Petz who wrote (103211)	10/17/2003 9:30:01 PM
From: eCo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Petz, If Inquirer's unit projections were real, and AMD made those numbers for K8 (which I presumed they did since there appeared to be spot shortages), then it's relatively simple to see what happened to K7. Using $503M cpu revenue, K8 took up about $28M of that. That's assuming ASP's of $300 and $400 for A64 and Opteron respectively, but small variations up or down there won't change that number significantly. So that leaves $475M or so for K7. At 7M units (the Q2 unit sales guesstimate), that's an ASP of $68. At an ASP of $57, that's 8.3M units (that number, interestingly, matches the Inq. projection). I think the real numbers are closer to the latter, than the former. Given Panic Mob's tables a few posts ago, perhaps the bulk of those extra units went East. This analysis breaks down if they actually sold more K8 than those projection numbers. But if that's the case, then their yields must be much better than they anticipated when they generated those projections. And that would be very good news as well. eCo

To: Petz who wrote (103211)	10/20/2003 3:19:20 PM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 275872

<You think AMD ASPs were up >10%? Well I can verify a big jump in the last week (~5% on Bartons)> The odds are, the ASPs are up by 15-20% and units by 5-10%. I say it based on the following. - Press release and conference call talk about "significant" ASP increases (as opposed to "slight") - Some benefit in ASPs from K8 (even at the tens of Ku level of shipments, it helps) - Some benefit from "record" laptop CPU shipments (even though the laptop ASPs get much less premium to what Intel gets, any laptop shipment growth helps) - Very small amount of Duron shipments (helps pull-up the ASPs quite a bit since these seem to have been shipping Durons in the $25-40 range) - Refusing to even comment on if units or ASPs was the dominant driver for revenues growth All this is consistent with quite a big ASP jump and Intel's statement about the segment where market share gains occurred. If you add to this what was not stated in the conference call: AMD in no form has either denied Intel's market share comments or made any claims of market share (and they would have if there was something positive to be said there)