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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (39853)	10/21/2003 5:34:00 AM
From: elmatador	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74559

The first population to peak is Japan. What's happened there in the last 12 years, and, more interestinlgy, in the next ten, needs to be learned for that will happen with the countries whose populations will peak subsequently. www9.ocn.ne.jp We are witnessing a country that is not accepting mass migration, economy is stagnated and will slowly return to insignificance. Japan is an island state. Australia is a more interesting case. Australia's population peak at 20.9 million in 2028. Canada's will peak in 2015. New Zealand will peak late, at 4.81 in 2046. We are going to have a boomlet lasting 50 years, of huge infrastructure as underdeveloped countries start growing the way the OECD grew in the post-war period last century. That boomlet will tapers off once those very countries start have their own demographic pyramids upside down. Those countries, next in line to peak, have to emulate Japan and have immense surpluses so that they can age in comfort and slide slowly into old age. Or they will be the new poor. As the old age people start to bite into those rich countries budget, they will try to extract from the young to pay the costs of the elderly. Those youngsters will find a better life moving to developing countries rather than to stay at home being taxed to finance the elderly. This will put pressure in those countries budget forcing them to cut "defense" budgets and subsidies to agriculture. It will be interesting to see the script playing at least I can witness a few countries peaking in my life time. Of course this is all figured out in one utility on your PC :-) "Tell people something they know already and they will thank you for it. Tell them something new and they will hate you for it."