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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (7632)	10/20/2003 1:52:56 PM
From: rhering	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

Brian, Timely comments from Mr Hill. I do however think the incredible run up in the late 1990's and it's aftermath was an anomaly. While I agree with the overall picture that he paints, margins have fallen a lot since the 1970's, I think it is risky to put too much emphasis on data pulled from the post 2000 crash, as it probably skews the trend to be overly pessimistic. It does not mean however that the pain is not real. In retrospect, there probably has not been a worse semiconductor equipment investment than a 200MM capacity buy purchased in 1999, that you now need to replace with 300MM to stay competitive. I'm sure it is a tough sell going back to those guys. I'm not a believer in government bailouts, mainland China's governmental investments are bad for the industry. But, Mr. Hill sounds like a man whose company is getting hammered in China. It will be interesting to compare the tone of KLA's and AMAT's upcoming conference call with NVLS's. Novellus has had a particularly rough couple of years. Their convertible bond offering did not go well, the 200MM ramp died (they ended up holding a ton of worthless inventory), converting their synthetic leases was costly and to top it all off the major growth market is in Asia where historically Applied has had a much stronger presence. Bringing in Tom St. Dennis was a great move to help with their marketing but it will take him some time to have an impact. Regards, Roger