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Technology Stocks : Applied Materials No-Politics Thread (AMAT) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rhering who wrote (7636)	10/20/2003 3:50:58 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

Here is some cold water for the Bulls...... IT Spending Won't Rise in 2004, Says Cutter Online Staff -- Electronic News, 10/20/2003 While the industry looks to 2004 corporate IT spending to drive an upturn across all semiconductor market sectors, next year may not be the year, the Cutter Consortium said today. The Arlington, Mass.-based consultant and market analysis company suggests that IT spending will remain steady but essentially flat next year. Cutter conducted a survey recently, finding that though the actual amount of money corporations plan to spend on IT may increase slightly, it won't keep pace with inflation or growth in other expenses, the company said. "Even a slight increase in spending is welcome, but suppliers and IT managers might want to wait a bit before cheering an end to the technology slump," George Westerman, Cutter senior consultant, said in a statement. "After all, one-third of the 97 organizations represented in the survey plan to cut IT spending relative to other spending. "Our main measure of IT spending is 'IT intensity', which we define as total IT expenditures divided by total organizational expenses," Westerman continued. "This is a good representation because it considers inflation and corporate growth, which should, on average, affect IT expenses and total expenses evenly. "So if IT spending grows just because the organization grows or because of inflation, the IT intensity ratio will remain constant," Westerman said. "If IT intensity rises, it represents an increased commitment to using IT. Conversely, if it falls, it means that organizations are finding other ways to spend their money." Cutter's survey found that IT intensity will likely decrease slightly, from an average of 18.29 percent in 2003 to 18.06 percent in 2004. The slight difference masks a great diversity in IT spending plans for next year, according to Cutter. About 30 percent of organizations the company surveyed expect to increase IT intensity by 2 percent or more, 33 percent expect to reduce it by the same margin, and the remaining 37 percent expect their IT intensity to remain relatively unchanged. About one-quarter of the organizations expect much larger changes, with 10 percent saying they plan to increase IT intensity by 26 percent or more and 14 percent planning to reduce IT intensity by 26 percent or more. "Contrary to some predictions of a turnaround in IT spending, our survey finds that as a percentage of total organizational expenses, IT spending will be flat to slightly declining in 2004," Westerman concluded. "But spending plans differ by industry, region, organization size, and other factors. Some organizations are increasing IT spending significantly, while others are making major cuts. "In general, smaller organizations are much more likely to be increasing their IT intensity than are larger organizations," he said. "The largest organizations, which are most attractive to IT vendors, still plan on reducing IT spending relative to other expenditures."

To: rhering who wrote (7636)	10/20/2003 8:16:27 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25522

SEMI's book-to-bill climbs to 0.95 in September Silicon Strategies 10/20/2003, 6:40 PM ET SAN JOSE -- North American-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted a book-to-bill ratio of 0.95 in September, up from 0.92 in August, according to new figures from the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI) trade group here today (Oct. 20, 2003). A book-to-bill of 0.95 means that $95 worth of new orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month, according to SEMI of San Jose. The SEMI book-to-bill is a ratio of three-month moving average bookings to three-month moving average billings for the North American semiconductor equipment industry. "September continues the conservative spending trends we've seen in 2003, especially in the front end equipment sector," said Dan Tracy, SEMI's director of industry research, in a statement. "Positive economic signs and rising fab capacity utilization levels, coupled with current cautious investments, points towards higher spending growth in 2004." The three-month average of worldwide bookings in September 2003 was $760.5 million. The bookings figure is 4 percent above the revised August 2003 level of $732 million and 8.5 percent below the $832 million in orders posted in September 2002. The three-month average of worldwide billings in September 2003 was $803.5 million. The billings figure is 1 percent above the revised August 2003 level of $792 million and 23 percent below the September 2002 billings level of $1.04 billion.

To: rhering who wrote (7636)	10/20/2003 8:21:21 PM
From: Cary Salsberg	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 25522

RE: "Lam is one of the best managed companies in the industry." This might be true if "best managed" were restricted to bean counting. If it means developing market leading tools, a comparison of LRCX to NVLS is unwarranted. In the last conference call, Bagley said that he did not want to have another "me too" CMP tool. It sounded like he was setting the stage for exiting the CMP business. This contrasts with what Hill said about CMP in the NVLS conference call. Hill said that NVLS was getting a good reception for CMP tools and he expected sales to pick up in 2H '04.