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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (1603)	10/21/2003 8:06:56 AM
From: loantech	Respond to of 110194

<The mortgage application index is the number to follow, and it's heading south. > Russ there you go again. We need to play this down. <g> Much appreciate the thread. tom PS:Russ are the retailers worried? A lot of Christmas stuff showing up in stores already and it started 1-2 weeks ago.

To: russwinter who wrote (1603)	10/21/2003 9:17:40 AM
From: Silver Super Bull	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

Don't think this link has been posted yet. A lot of interesting stuff like historical TED Spread, historical Free Reserves, etc: investmenttools.com

To: russwinter who wrote (1603)	10/21/2003 1:11:05 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

Russ, I agree with you about the consequences of an increase in short term interest rates. The fact is that the whole economy is hugely leveraged on ultra low short term interest rates. Many trillions of long term fixed debt have been swapped with variable debt. Bill Gross warned about this more than a year ago when he slammed GE. Remember he slammed it first time in March 2002 pimco.com and after that in April 2002 for swapping debt pimco.com

To: russwinter who wrote (1603)	10/22/2003 10:22:25 AM
From: ild	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 110194

The Mortgage Bankers Associations refinancing index, which tracks U.S. refinancing applications, fell in the week ended October 17, down 5.8 percent at 2204.1 and near its year lows of late August. The decline reflects rising mortgage rates, which in turn are tied to the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note that has been moving higher on growing indications of economic recovery. As long as interest rates are on the rise, future consumption will not be helped by homeowner refinancing. The MBA's purchase index, which tracks the nation's volume of new home loans, bounced up 7.5 percent to 386.1 following a deep plunge in the prior week. The bounce lifts the purchase index back inside the lower end of its year-long range and suggests continuing strength in one of the economy's leading sectors, residential construction.

To: russwinter who wrote (1603)	10/22/2003 2:42:10 PM
From: ild	Respond to of 110194

14:28 ET FNM/FRE follow-up : A U.S. Treasury Department official said on Wednesday the Bush administration would consider ending the ability of mortgage finance companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to tap the government for emergency funds. "If in the process of (legislation under consideration) Congress wants to take on that issue, we're open to having that discussion," Assistant Treasury Secretary for Financial Institutions Wayne Abernathy told reporters. -- Reuters