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To: Raymond Duray who wrote (39997)	10/22/2003 10:06:23 PM
From: Condor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Thanks Ray, I came across this: cns.miis.edu Motivation for the Manned Program China's White Paper on Space states that the space program is intended "to meet the growing demands of economic construction, national security, science and technology development and social progress, protect China's national interests and build up the [sic] comprehensive national strength."[13] The Chinese leadership's motivation for investing so heavily in a manned space program is a combination of a belief that the resulting technological improvements will benefit national economic development and a desire to increase the credibility of the regime both domestically and internationally. Some Western analysts argue that China is also paying considerable attention to the military and defense gains that a manned space program could provide. The prestige aspects of the space program play a critical role in providing the political will necessary to implement a project like the Shenzhou. The manned program has the support of China's top leadership, and has been a key objective for the Chinese space program for the last decade. After the successful launch of the Shenzhou 3, then President Jiang Zemin commented: "The successful launch of three Shenzhou spaceships takes the country to new heights of space science and technology."[14] Although China's space program is the most advanced in Asia, and viewed as equivalent to European programs, China has not been asked to join the 16-nation ISS, even though nations with smaller programs have been asked to participate. By becoming the third country to launch humans into space, China's leaders hope to demonstrate China's technological stature. A successful manned space flight will mark China as a member of an exclusive club. Beijing has also tried to use the Shenzhou launch to improve the regime's domestic legitimacy. Images of the Shenzhou have been placed on phone cards, water heaters, and other items as part of a marketing strategy aimed at making the Shenzhou program a source of national pride.[15] Chinese space program officials have consistently played down the level of foreign assistance the Shenzhou program has received, and have portrayed the program as a great national achievement. Despite this propaganda, public reaction in China has been subdued. Some see the program as a waste of money, which should be spent instead on more pressing development issues, and an indicator that the leadership's priorities are misplaced.[16] The potential scientific advancements of the Shenzhou program are also important rationales for the Chinese government's push towards manned space travel. Chinese leaders see the technological advances and resulting economic benefits as sufficient to justify the large investment of limited resources. China's space program has included work on space remote sensing, environmental monitoring, space materials, life sciences, astronomy, and physics. Successful development of the Shenzhou program would give China an increased capacity to carry out scientific experiments and develop useful technology, with potentially lucrative results. Some analysts argue that the Shenzhou, along with the rest of the space program, is intrinsically linked to China's attempts to modernize its military and gain an advantage on U.S. forces and space assets.[17] It is true that the division between civilian and military space programs in China is nonexistent, with much of the control of the civilian program in the hands of the military. The Shenzhou program itself is overseen by the PLA's General Armament Department. The Chinese have admitted that the Shenzhou has reconnaissance capabilities[18] and many analysts point out technological gains from the manned program could be used for military space programs, such as development of anti-satellite weapons.[19] However, military goals are not the driving force for such a costly and time consuming program. If military development were the prime motivation, a manned space program would be an inefficient and expensive method to meet these goals. Conclusion The Chinese manned space program clearly owes much to the Russian Federation. However, it is not clear that the Chinese manned program could not have succeeded without Russian assistance, albeit at a slower pace. Russian assistance meant that China was not forced to "reinvent the wheel" and allowed China to develop an advanced spacecraft with "Chinese characteristics"' within a reasonable length of time. When the Shenzhou is finally launched, China's space officials will deservedly celebrate their accomplishments. But how long will the celebration last? As the recent discussion after the Columbia disaster demonstrates, many still question the value and cost-effectiveness of manned space flight, especially considering the potential loss of human life. Will a successful Shenzhou 5 mission yield the desired benefits in terms of domestic legitimacy and international prestige? Will the technological and economic benefits justify the costs of the ambitious manned space flight program envisioned by Chinese scientists? Or will China suffer a domestically devastating and internationally embarrassing loss of its first spacefarers? It remains to be seen if Chinese leaders will ultimately regard the Shenzhou program as a national accomplishment that deserves continued support, or as a money pit draining resources from other more vital projects.