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Strategies & Market Trends : Group Theories -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: macavity who wrote (770)	10/24/2003 8:42:28 AM
From: macavity	Respond to of 1017

ST Outlook (PreMarket): US Market Indices. Intraday: European markets are down, but have held above yesterday's lows. This is a sign of strength, that frankly I was not expecting at this moment. I was expecting yesterday's lows to be taken as ES on Globex is trading under yesterday's day session. ST1_Stochastics (i.e. 'HOURLY) are also holding up above yesterdays lows. IF the charts turn up - watch out bears! IF 'HOURLY CHARTS can turn up here! The first hour of the US Opening will be super-critical. If all depends on which side panics. If the BULLS we have 15 days worth of trapped longs above ES=1025 level. If the BEARS lose their nerve and 1020/15 holds expect a strong reaction rally towards the day's end. Lowering stops on Shorts - its been a good week! -macavity

To: macavity who wrote (770)	10/25/2003 12:10:03 PM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1017

ST Outlook : US Market Indices. ST OUTLOOK: MIXED/BEAR from BEAR/MIXED BEARISH below ST1_PVTHIGHS ST1_CHARTS: MO PVT PVTHIGH PVTLOW $SPX #N/A BEAR 1033.77 1018.32 $OEX BEAR BEAR 514.88 505.98 $COMP BEAR BEAR 1885.51 1841.62 $NDX BEAR BEAR 1378.11 1346.01 $INDU #N/A BEAR 9613.13 9497.72 Short Term: Bounce at support but ST1_CHARTS still point down. ST1_MO is increasing to NEUTRAL, but is not really there yet. We have 'just' arrived at o/sold levels but we can go below them, therefore a re-test of the $SPX=1020/15 levels should not be discounted at this moment in time. ST2_CHARTS are BULLISH (ST2_MO and ST2_PVTCHARTS) but there is so much resistance above this market in the intraday that we will need some real move up to break the ST1_CHARTS. The levels above look challenging to say the least. ST2_TRENDOSCILLATORS (~Hourly stochastics) are not yet o/bt so there is a good chance that we can creep a little higher or drift sideways. Any failure in 'HOURLY stochastics on Monday will provide a good opportunity to go short, as will the 'HOURLY CHARTS pointing down. I will look at resistance levels before then, but the strength of the ST trend - ST1_TREND - suggests that we have a high probability of re-visiting Friday's lows come Monday. I left The Market early so could not be around for the close. Fortuneatly, I closed my $SPX and $DAX shorts when the $SPX hit 1020. Better lucky than clever! I will look to put out a small short in either NQ or ES should the pre-market session look a bit frothy. BULLISH indicator charts to look at for a Short-Term reversal are: $BKX for the $SPX/$OEX, and $BTK for the $NDX/$COMP. Both failed to confirm Friday's lows. $BKX: 15Mins share.esignal.com $BTK: 15Mins share.esignal.com -macavity