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To: orkrious who wrote (264602)	10/24/2003 1:25:13 PM
From: Andrew	Respond to of 436258

Correcto Interest rates have nowhere to go but up. And maybe sooner than some think. Yes Kcast appears to be out.

To: orkrious who wrote (264602)	10/24/2003 2:40:15 PM
From: NOW	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

it will ignite a bond rally (it has already). One day it might not. doubt that day is upon us.

To: orkrious who wrote (264602)	10/24/2003 2:52:37 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Date: Fri Oct 24 2003 14:31 trotsky (Hambone@VIX) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved i DID answer that question. you must have overlooked my reply. anyway, i'll give it to you again: it's true, the low VIX is a concern - it shows that front month index options are too low in price, a sign of complacency. but it is dangerous to look at the VIX in isolation. for instance, in the early 90's, the VIX traded at single digits and low double digits for an extended period - and the market kept going up. i'm of course not arguing that the early 90's are about to return, just saying that a low VIX per se doesn't automatically translate into a market decline. the VIX has been quite low since late April, but the recent spike to a new low was obviously a bit too excessive - and the market has already responded with a bout of weakness. btw., i'm open to the possibility that the current decline could develop legs, depending on its character. if there's e.g. a lot of short covering right away, and puts get taken off the outstanding OI and replaced with calls quickly, we might be in for a bigger dump. i'll make sure to report on that if it happens. however, October expiration was an excellent chance for such a character change, and the post expiration data showed little to no movement on that score. but we'll see...per experience, what happens during declines is more revealing than what happens while the market is still trending up. and as i've mentioned, the recent blow-off move in junk debt is a warning sign, as is the sharp slowdown in money supply growth. i really only have a single argument favoring the bull case, and that's the fact that so much money is committed to the short side.

To: orkrious who wrote (264602)	10/24/2003 9:09:58 PM
From: Bill/WA	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

ork, <<I'm not selling my gold stocks and will buy more in a sharp correction>> my thoughts also, although I too would not like to second guess heinz, especially me being somewhat of a neophyte with the bond situation, however. As a lay-person I see the US dollar in decline, the unemployment rising, foreclosures and personal bankruptcies climbing. With US manufacturing and production in decline, why would I want to risk buying rising interest, junk status bonds? IOW, I think the US is in helpless decline. And if that is my thought process, wouldn't it be more prudent for me to invest in gold as opposed to the stocks or bonds of a US company? Just a thought.