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Politics : WHO IS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT IN 2004 -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (5787)	10/25/2003 12:04:59 PM
From: Glenn Petersen	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 10965

“Clark’s candidacy is starting to fizzle,” said Zogby, “and Kerry simply is not connecting.” Poll puts Dean farin front of Kerry theunionleader.com Union Leader News Howard Dean has surged into a 40 percent to 17 percent lead over John Kerry, according to a new poll of likely New Hampshire primary voters. National pollster John Zogby yesterday described his survey, taken Tuesday through Thursday, as astonishing. Recent polls had given Dean a smaller but substantial lead. Zogby and GOP strategist Thomas Rath agreed that Dean’s campaign would have to collapse for him to lose the primary on Jan. 27. Dean drew 40 percent; Kerry, 17 percent; Wesley Clark and John Edwards, 6 percent each; Gephardt, 4 percent, and Joseph Lieberman, 3 percent. Al Sharpton, Dennis Kucinich and Carol Mosley Braun each drew less than 1 percent, while 19 percent of likely voters were undecided. James Demers, state chairman for Dick Gephardt’s campaign, said, “I think we are now seeing two separate Presidential primaries in New Hampshire — the race between the two next-door neighbors and the separate race that involves the rest of the pack.” Zogby said Dean swept all demographic categories, leading among all age groups, among union and non-union voters, and among self-described progressives and liberals. He led Kerry 43 percent to 30 percent among Democrats, 35 percent to 11 percent among independents, and 34 percent to 14 percent among moderates. “This is stunning,” said Zogby. “This qualifies as juggernaut status.” Zogby called Clark “the dynamic” in the race. In August, before the general entered the race, Dean led Kerry, 38 percent to 17 percent. But in late September, soon after Clark’s entry, Dean’s lead dropped to 30 percent to 20 percent with Clark third at 10 percent. A month later, Clark is down to 6 percent and Dean’s lead is back up. “Clark’s candidacy is starting to fizzle,” said Zogby, “and Kerry simply is not connecting.” He called Dean’s now reaching the 40 percent mark astonishing and said it was clear that the former Vermont governor is appealing to independents, including those who backed insurgent John McCain, winner of the 2000 GOP primary. While cautioning that “anything can happen,” Zogby said, “Given where we stand now, it’s hard to see a way to stop Dean, especially if he has a strong showing in Iowa, which he very well may have.” Zogby likened him to Jimmy Carter, Ronald Reagan and McCain in his ability to bond with voters. Rath said, “If Howard Dean gets something close to a smashing victory in Iowa, it won’t matter who finishes second in New Hampshire. If he puts those two together, with the number of primaries and caucuses immediately following New Hampshire, the nomination could be decided by next St. Patrick’s Day.” Rath said the Kerry campaign is at a crisis point. “Can John Kerry even hold second here if he finished behind Dean in Iowa?” Rath asked. “Where does he win?” Demers said that just as Gephardt is focusing on defeating Dean in Iowa, Kerry “has to do the same thing in New Hampshire.” The Zogby poll did show that neither front-runner Dean nor the other candidates have yet convinced voters they can win the general election. A full 60 percent of likely primary voters said it is somewhat or very likely President George W. Bush will be reelected. Zogby surveyed 500 likely voters in the Democratic primary. Of them, 300 were self-described Democrats and 200 were independent or undeclared. The results of the survey, which had a 4.5 percent margin of error, was weighted slightly to reflect the expected voting population.

To: stockman_scott who wrote (5787)	10/25/2003 12:25:20 PM
From: calgal	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10965

Lieberman, Clark look beyond Iowa caucus By James G. Lakely THE WASHINGTON TIMES Democratic presidential hopefuls Sen. Joe Lieberman and Wesley Clark may be taking a risk by skipping the Iowa caucuses, but their anemic polling in the nation's first real political test may have left them little choice. "This is not the ideal strategy for winning the Democratic nomination, but for these two candidates, it's probably the only strategy," said Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the Rothenberg Political Report. "I regard this as simply accepting the political realities of Iowa and where they stand." The Lieberman and Clark campaigns announced Sunday they were abandoning Iowa. The Jan. 19 caucuses have become a clear three-man race that includes neither of them. A Democracy Corps poll conducted Oct. 2-13 showed Rep. Richard A. Gephardt of Missouri leading with 27 percent of Democratic supporters, followed closely by former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean with 26 percent and Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry with 16 percent. Mr. Clark, the retired Army general who vaulted to the top of surveys of Democrats nationwide upon announcing his candidacy last month, trailed with the support of 6 percent of Iowa voters in the Democracy Corps poll. Mr. Lieberman was among the party's fringe candidates, with 2 percent. Jennifer Duffy, political analyst for the Cook Political Report, said the decision to bail out of Iowa makes a lot of sense. "If your choice is playing in Iowa and spending a lot of resources in time and money and staff to come in fifth or sixth, or devoting that money to a state where your chances are better, it doesn't seem like a terribly hard decision," Mrs. Duffy said. "You can't blame them for it." Lieberman campaign spokesman Jano Cabrera said the strategy of bypassing Iowa worked for Sen. John McCain, Arizona Republican, when he challenged George W. Bush for the Republican nomination in 2000. Mr. McCain concentrated on New Hampshire and achieved an upset over the well-financed then-governor of Texas. John Weaver, Mr. McCain's presidential campaign manager in 2000, was "among the people we consulted with," Mr. Cabrera said. "This was a strategic decision," Mr. Cabrera said, "With less than 100 days to go when actual voting begins, now's the time for candidates to focus their resources on where they think they will prove the most effective." Mr. Lieberman's 17-person Iowa staff has already been sent to offices in New Hampshire, which holds the first primary Jan. 27, and to the seven states with Feb. 3 primaries. "We're disappointed that they are not going to play in the Iowa caucuses," said Mark Daly, spokesman for the Iowa Democratic Party. "I'm not really sure what their rationale is." In a state where on-the-ground organization is key, Mr. Clark's campaign never had a chance to get established. While the McCain model has its appeal, it does have its limits. Mr. McCain managed to win New Hampshire, but was defeated by Mr. Bush shortly thereafter in South Carolina and Michigan. "It has not proven to be an advisable strategy to skip Iowa. 'President Gore' and 'President McCain' can certainly attest to that," said an aide to a rival campaign. A Lieberman campaign staffer, however, found one Democratic candidate who adopted a variation of this strategy and went on to the White House. "In years past, there has been a candidate who did not invest in Iowa, went on to invest in New Hampshire, didn't win there either, but went on to win the key states for his campaign," the staffer said. "And that was Bill Clinton."