Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Snowshoe who wrote (40381)	10/28/2003 3:45:17 PM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hi Snowshoe: I'm a great admirer of Warren Buffett. He's a value-oriented, LTBH kinda guy, as am I. Nevertheless, we must operate in the world of what is, not in the world of what we'd like to be or even the world of what should be. So....the Fed uses what one might argue is an outmoded or too narrow definition of inflation (I disagree with that premise, btw) to guide monetary policy. That kind of thinking exists in the world of what should be. In the world of what is, we have interest rates at 45 year lows, hence discounted cash flows are at 45 year highs, hence stocks can trade at 45 year earnings yield highs. Given the unprecedented (in my lifetime, anyway) deflationary forces acting on the US economy, the balance of probabilities lies with....low interest rates to the horizon. This will likely all end very badly, as I have said previously, but seeing the cataclysm around every corner (i.e. Jay's endless rollover prediction of TEOTWAWKI) is the world of what should be, not the world of what is.

To: Snowshoe who wrote (40381)	10/28/2003 7:20:03 PM
From: EL KABONG!!!	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

A new geomagnetic solar storm is rapidly incoming towards Earth. The prior storm, last week, barely grazed the planet, yet still caused some radio communications disruptions (mostly at extremely high altitudes) and some minor cell phone disruptions. No electrical outages were noted. The prior storm was was ranked at the 3rd level of severity, or about the middle of the range. This new storm is rated between the 4th and 5th levels, or near the top of the severity range. Auroral activity from the prior storm was seen only in extreme northern European locations. The auroral activity from the new storm has the potential for a much wider audience. The initial effects should begin to be felt tonight, after sunset, in the extreme northern hemisphere. But the bulk of the energy will not reach our planet until sometime tomorrow, perhaps late in the afternoon or after dark. A record reading for mass ejection of solar material was registered on very sophisticated astronomical equipment. Much of this solar material will harmlessly shoot past the planet. However, some material will undoubtedly bathe the planet, causing problems for man-made satellites and possible geomagnetic storms within the planet's atmosphere. So, watch the northern skies (or southern skies, if you're in the southern hemisphere) for possible auroras at sunset and sunrise for the next few days. Potentially, the light show could be stunning. KJC

To: Snowshoe who wrote (40381)	10/28/2003 10:39:16 PM
From: TobagoJack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello Snowshoe, Between Warren Buffett and ACF Mike Message 19442941 , I recommend you give Buffett a fair consideration. As to ACF Mike’s ‘should’ and ‘is’, I think we do not need to pick ‘is’ over ‘should’. In fact, I believe we do not need to pick at all, except in trimming the allocation here and tucking the position there, and to hedge a bit, depending on whether is is more than could before the onset of should. I believe what should be may turn out eventually as must be, and sometimes, though not always, when what should be is deliberately prevented from becoming is, the eventually must be ends up to be much worse than it otherwise would have been ;0) But you know all this already. I suppose we have a duty to alert ACF Mike what could be, and if he listens, he could end up in a better is. As to ACF Mike’s <<(i.e. Jay’s endless rollover prediction of TEOTWAWKI) is the world of what should be, not the world of what is>>, TeoTwawKi is delayed, until one fine day, presto, abracadabra, TeoTwawKi :0) In my TeoTwawKi script here achamchen.com I had hedged <<The elapsed time of correction is dependent on the FED and the Administration - how hard will they fight the quick sand with stimulus that further mortgages the future and postpone market clearing>>. Until then, that is the should be TeoTwawKi, I am counting my blessings, and after then, I hope to be able to count my blessings still. In the immediate and now, as in is, I do have a problem, and that is my Lumacom is continuing to sink uk.finance.yahoo.com day after night after day, as I suppose it should after the spectacular rise, but thankfully my approximately 6x holding in rising currencies is so far able to offset the Lumacom decline, and so my overall portfolio is still pinned at around 19.3% NAV gain (28.3% gain on active managed portion). I need a breakthrough, like a space ship, to not merely reach escape velocity, but to energize the portfolio from low to a higher orbit, to better prepare for TeoTwawKi. You know, that extra boost to provide augmented cushion for the tanking that should happen in 2004 ;0) This search for breakthroughs is ordinarily a risky affair, but, I suppose the Greensputin put may hold matters away from anti-matter between the now is and the April 2004 should be ... as in kaboom, and sudden realization that outrageous low interest rate/tax cuts stimulus delays resolution and reckoning, but does not obviate the should and must for such resolution and reckoning. Chugs, Jay