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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AC Flyer who wrote (40382)	10/28/2003 3:53:22 PM
From: macavity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Long-Term Bond Yields are heading lower. Dec 30Yr Future hits a new 3 week high today. Either, or both, of: Reduced economic activity expectations, Reduced inflation expectations. Methinks that Stocks (IMO) will soon follow, but who knows? Got stopped out of a small NQ short today. -macavity

To: AC Flyer who wrote (40382)	10/29/2003 4:14:04 AM
From: Snowshoe	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

AC, any thoughts on Buffet's "Import Certificate" proposal? The time to halt this trading of assets for consumables is now, and I have a plan to suggest for getting it done. My remedy may sound gimmicky, and in truth it is a tariff called by another name. But this is a tariff that retains most free-market virtues, neither protecting specific industries nor punishing specific countries nor encouraging trade wars. This plan would increase our exports and might well lead to increased overall world trade. And it would balance our books without there being a significant decline in the value of the dollar, which I believe is otherwise almost certain to occur. We would achieve this balance by issuing what I will call Import Certificates (ICs) to all U.S. exporters in an amount equal to the dollar value of their exports. Each exporter would, in turn, sell the ICs to parties—either exporters abroad or importers here—wanting to get goods into the U.S. To import $1 million of goods, for example, an importer would need ICs that were the byproduct of $1 million of exports. The inevitable result: trade balance. Note: Here is a better link... Message 19444320

To: AC Flyer who wrote (40382)	10/29/2003 4:17:18 AM
From: Seeker of Truth	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 74559

Hello AC, or was it DC, Jay Chen correctly predicted the tech crash, and not via some arcane formula not given out but you could get the recommendations for $500 per month. He advanced clear reasons,mainly the ever shorter lifetime of any company's technological lead as compared with the "ever" soaring P/Es. His fee for the advice: zero. The predictions of TEOTWAWKI are also solidly based on the balance of payments situation, consumer indebtedness level, little propensity to save, government's determination on military adventures far away from the natural interest of all save oil companies. What a mixture! Once I was in a hotel in Japan, around 5:30 AM the whole hotel started shaking, the elevator cables snapped, letting the elevators crash, the TV sets all smashed to the floor; I couldn't stand up. I would have liked to have somebody's warning in advance then I never would have been in Kansai that time. We have clear warning from Buffett, (an idiot well known for losing money?) as well as Jay, who keeps on giving reasons. As for "postponing" the predicted time of the disaster, nobody is silly enough to give an exact date. Meanwhile investing OUTSIDE of the US exclusively does not cost anything. Some examples: SinoTrans up 30% in the last couple of months, Castellum, up 35% this year, the Canadian oil/gas trusts with their yields in the teens, much of it with deferred taxes. Remember a 15% drop in the US dollar cancels about a 1200 rise in the Dow. We can step aside from catastrophe if we want to. About the low interest rates as far as one can see, the US is not Japan. For most of the last 13 years the ordinary Japanese people have been saving like mad. Despite the exploding government debt they assume that the yen is a good currency to save. With enough trust one can inflate for a long time. The US public does not save. When the public debt increases to a great height as it must, who will keep on buying the debt? US bonds are only credible when the debt to GNP ratio remains about normal. That isn't in the cards when the regime in power which has the trust of a majority of the voters is determined on making enemies out of Syria, Iran etc. not to speak of Palestine with whom there is no natural, built in antagonism. Conclusion: we'll see sky high interest rates in the US.