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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: quehubo who wrote (26771)	11/1/2003 8:23:33 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206092

TIME TO FESS UP! About the time of the first of the year and then into the spring I made a clear and consise prediction that NG would replenish itself and would do so at a pace that would beat 01. As of this weeks revision on the NG supply, its apparent we are indeed OVERSTOCKING the product. In the mean time the pit traders are still holding price up above 4.25, but for how long? If Crude continues to build as it has ( larger then year ago) that phrase of FUEL SWITCHING will dominate much of the cold fall nights in the pits. I am DUMBFOUNDED to still hear from many on this board how they can even remotely say any of the current data is BULLISH? NOTHING currently is bullish at all. I have watched the osx froma far over the last 2 months hoping that the theory of supply shortages might prove me wrong. I even went as far as covering some long term shorts about 6 weeks ago. My plan was to get long when I was proven wrong. Presently even according to ROBRY, things are not at all looking up in the patch. I look at the bounce off of break down as the usuall in the patch, but wonder if we are seriously on the verge of BREAKDOWN in these stocks? I want to be as clear as I can, I am not BEARISH or BULLISH I am only reading the teas leaves and they are quite negative and looking out getting worse. I would love for someone to take the time to tell me how OVERDRILLING and DEMAND DESTRUCTION in NG will just turn on a dime once the cold really comes? I am starting to think $4.00 NG days are NUMBERED! Good luck my friends, and for the record if that revision didn't show its ugly head I would have been long thursday in the OSX. ONE SCARED OSX TRADER

To: quehubo who wrote (26771)	11/1/2003 8:37:00 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206092

One last point, many here also predicted that DRILLING would enter into a new BULL CYCLE with the surge in NG drilling. That also has never happened as I stated about 9 months ago we are only in a brief bump up in only the NG land drilling for the most part. The evidence has been more then clear that GOM and Deep sea drilling is still in a major slump and probably getting worse. The only area that did very well was SHORT TERM land drilling. I said before I will say again, these are very short term contracts and will not carry the OSX without substantial product shortage for a very long period of time. So here we are even as OIL has had one of its best years ever averageing above 30BBL. Also NG above 4 for a long period of time the DRILLERS are still in MUCK, and what happens now as products really start to replenish???? I made the point that Expensive product RUINS the drillers. I stand by that statement and until we get CRUDE back to 18-25 as a norm and NG back to 2-3 we will not have any sustainable rally in these stocks. Unfortunatley the time has passed when I could have been proven wrong. Yes we will have a cold winter from December-March, but this is not enough. Thoughts are much appreciated

To: quehubo who wrote (26771)	11/4/2003 11:22:55 AM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206092

Que, I think ng prices prices have a lot more work to do on the downside so I'm not in a rush to turn bullish. I do think that the cure for low prices is low prices, and I'm already looking forward to the next bull run in the OSX. I just don't think it's going to happen this season. In fact, I think tax loss selling will take many broken issues much lower. My best guess is that explorers will respond to lower prices by reducing activity. In 2001, the big change in permits came as spot prices moved under $4. We're right there now, with many unknowns about the future. The data we do know, however, is bearish. As for my low - I recently revised it downward to $3.05 spot. Message 19385395 I don't think this will happen this year, but maybe this season.