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To: Ron McKinnon who wrote (49670)	11/3/2003 10:30:11 PM
From: BWAC	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53068

When/If Greenspan raises rates ever again, I keep looking at these Ishares Bond etf's for some easy setup. It seems to me that at some early point in the rate raising cycle that the Bond ETF prices are going to immediately recognize the rate increase yet have a delayed ability to roll maturing Bonds into new higher rate issues. So the dollar yield should initially remain constant. To get an immediate higher % yield the Bond ETF price has to fall. ishares.com SHY currently has a 1.7% yield. And it appears that about 70% of the bonds in the fund go out into year 2005 or 2006. One only has to go back to middle of year 2002 to see that these type Bonds used to be traded at 3% plus yields. federalreserve.gov SHY trades at 82 with a current yield of 1.7%, a couple of 50 basis point rate increases would drive that yield to almost 3%. And darn near cut SHY in half before it could roll bond maturities into new higher rates. Or so it seems to me. And nobody seems to be expecting it. A June 2004 Put at $82 strike is only 80 cents. June 2004 is the farest month out on the board so far. I wish they'd put a Jan 2005 (after elections) up soon. Comments? Holes in theory?