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Strategies & Market Trends : Z Best Place to Talk Stocks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BWAC who wrote (49686)	11/4/2003 4:22:18 AM
From: Carl Worth	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53068

main problems with SHY puts: 1) i don't think the fed will raise rates for at least close to a year...i hear the pundits starting to guess march of 2004, but i disagree, for one main reason...business spending is just starting to pick up, so if the fed raises rates too soon and puts any kind of damper on consumer spending before business spending and the employment picture are much more solid, there would be the threat of disrupting the economic recovery 2) looks to me like SHY barely budged even when the bond market took a big hit in the summer...i can't remember the symbol, but the longer term bond ETF fell from like 97 to 80 back then from what i remember, so it seems unlikely that SHY would fall much from here even if rates did go up before those puts expire...perhaps you have 2 points of upside beyond the cost of the put, doesn't seem like much more, and probably the true number is even less than that JMHO, and bonds are definitely not my specialty so i could easily be wrong <G> carl