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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: loantech who wrote (1769)	11/3/2003 8:45:55 AM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 110194

<precious metals stocks.> The debate about gold is several fold. 1. Is it just another global reflation play that speculators have piled into like everything else? and a: how are gold stocks themselves being played within this context? 2. Is gold somewhat divorced from just a spec reflation play because of it's "special" qualities, or alternative investment characteristics (as money, store of value)? I think the answer to 1 is yes and to 1 a the answer is hard. I really don't see gold stocks right now as much different than Chinese internet stocks like SOHU or NTES. I almost see NEM as close to being a good short now, although I won't do it because of "religious" beliefs. The answer to 2 is somewhat, but the timing isn't quite right. I'd say if you're going to play gold, hold the metal or the ETF if it ever trades, not the more leveraged gold stocks. A stock like CKG.v might be OK to hold as it's a good name that's lagged, but I'd do it on strictly a trading basis recognizing you could easily get caught. My vehicle for this kind of laggard play in PMs is SUF.to.

To: loantech who wrote (1769)	11/5/2003 8:38:43 PM
From: russwinter	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 110194

Tom, this from the TOL report. The question I have of you is, can anything go wrong with these contracts, or are they as good as gold ? $580,535 per house. Note: the MBA purchase index of loan applications has fallen from an average of 414 per week in Sept to 385 per week in Oct. Toll wouldn't comment on new October contracts in the call, just general market conditions, which are still fairly robust. $40 for the stock is unjustified in my mind, especially if the purchase index continues to soften. Note the purchase index for the comparative period a year ago was 350-360. It averaged about 420 in the quarter just ended. Fourth quarter 2003 contracts of approximately $1.02 billion (1,757 homes), also the highest for any quarter in the Company's history, grew by 55% versus 2002's record fourth quarter of $656.6 million (1,205 homes). FYE 2003 contracts of approximately $3.49 billion (6,161 homes) rose 27% compared to 2002's FYE record of $2.75 billion (5,113 homes). Some good commentary on refi and purchase activity that repeats a lot of what we've said here. However, one thing that stands out is the overlay of inverse interest rates and refis. 6% today engenders a fraction of the activity of 6% a year or two ago: prudentbear.com