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Gold/Mining/Energy : Big Dog's Boom Boom Room -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ed Ajootian who wrote (26848)	11/4/2003 8:18:56 AM
From: John Carragher	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 206085

-- Natural-gas prices fell nearly 4 percent Monday to close at their lowest level in a month with traders giving back the previous session's gains amid uncertainties surrounding the U.S. supply and demand picture for the winter season. CBS MARKETWATCH December natural gas fell by 18.8 cents to close at $4.705 per million British thermal units on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after touching a one-week high of $5 in early trading. The contract, which hasn't closed under $4.71 since Oct. 2, climbed more than 18 cents on Friday. "It appears we are in the midst of another profit-taking/short-covering rally spurred on by another weekend shift in the weather forecast," said Joshua Sadler, a vice president at Societe Generale. He told clients that the U.S. weather forecasts for both the next six to 10 days and for 11 to 15 days out have "gone cooler" and have lent some price support. But analysts at Stephen Smith Energy Associates, an energy investment research firm, expect this week's U.S. gas in storage update on Thursday will reflect a rise of 28 billion cubic feet in inventories for the week ended Oct. 31. That's 21 billion cubic feet above the "normal" seasonal replenishment of supplies in storage, based on the figures for 1994 to 1998, the analysts said. Stephen Smith expects the weekly inventory climbs to be "trending down with gas prices as the fall and winter proceed. With the "help" of a milder-than-normal fall thus far, and the Energy Department's one-time, upward adjustment to storage stocks, "we expect to be close to the 120 billion cubic foot surplus storage mark as of Oct. 31," the analysts said. Sadler said most estimates for the supply update call for a buildup of between 60 billion to 65 billion cubic feet, which would compare to last year's 27 billion cubic feet. "Storage is now well above the five-year average and the deficit to last year now stands at 51 billion cubic feet," he said, adding that the deficit could be erased as early as next week. Last week, the Energy Department reported another increase in gas inventories for the week ended Oct. 24, bearish news in the view of traders. See more.